MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 7/4/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
BOSJalen
Beeks
10.05.3244.0%28.6%16.9%9.1%4.5%
HOUJon
Heasley
9.05.2843.3%28.0%16.4%8.8%4.3%
ATLDakota
Hudson
9.55.2643.0%27.7%16.2%8.6%4.2%
LADKyle
Freeland
8.55.2442.6%27.4%16.0%8.5%4.1%
NYMHunter
Greene
9.55.2041.9%26.8%15.5%8.2%4.0%
MILJustin
Steele
9.04.8736.1%21.9%12.0%6.0%2.7%
CHWDylan
Bundy
9.04.6933.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
TBAustin
Davis
10.04.6832.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
SDChris
Flexen
8.04.5330.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
CLEGarrett
Hill
8.54.5230.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
SFMadison
Bumgarner
8.04.5129.9%17.0%8.7%4.1%1.7%
TORCole
Irvin
7.54.4428.7%16.1%8.2%3.8%1.6%
MIAPatrick
Corbin
8.54.3226.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
MINJohnny
Cueto
9.04.3126.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
CINTaijuan
Walker
9.54.3026.3%14.4%7.1%3.2%1.3%
TEXDean
Kremer
8.54.2725.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
STLKyle
Wright
9.54.2425.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
BALDane
Dunning
8.54.2325.2%13.6%6.6%2.9%1.2%
WSHBraxton
Garrett
8.54.1824.4%13.0%6.3%2.7%1.1%
CHCEric
Lauer
9.04.1323.6%12.5%5.9%2.5%1.0%
CLEAlex
Faedo
7.54.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
DETZach
Plesac
8.53.9821.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
KCJake
Odorizzi
9.03.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
ARICarlos
Rodon
8.03.4914.1%6.5%2.6%1.0%0.3%
SEASean
Manaea
8.03.4713.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
DETCal
Quantrill
7.53.4413.5%6.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
COLJulio
Urias
8.53.2611.2%4.8%1.9%0.6%0.2%
OAKAlek
Manoah
7.53.069.0%3.7%1.3%0.4%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Carlos
Rodon
ARI6.789.9%79.4%65.4%49.9%35.1%22.8%13.7%
Kyle
Wright
STL6.387.4%75.4%60.3%44.3%30.0%18.6%10.7%
Sean
Manaea
SEA6.286.4%73.8%58.3%42.3%28.1%17.2%9.7%
Eric
Lauer
CHC6.084.6%71.1%54.9%38.9%25.2%15.0%8.2%
Julio
Urias
COL5.984.1%70.3%54.0%37.9%24.4%14.4%7.8%
Alek
Manoah
OAK5.883.4%69.3%52.8%36.8%23.4%13.7%7.3%
Johnny
Cueto
MIN5.073.4%55.8%38.2%23.6%13.2%6.7%3.1%
Taijuan
Walker
CIN4.972.4%54.5%37.0%22.6%12.5%6.3%2.9%
Hunter
Greene
NYM4.971.8%53.8%36.3%22.0%12.1%6.1%2.8%
Justin
Steele
MIL4.971.5%53.5%35.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
Patrick
Corbin
MIA4.768.9%50.4%33.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
Braxton
Garrett
WSH4.564.9%45.8%28.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
Cole
Irvin
TOR4.463.7%44.5%27.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
Dane
Dunning
BAL4.463.4%44.1%27.3%15.1%7.6%3.4%1.4%
Madison
Bumgarner
SF4.261.0%41.6%25.2%13.6%6.6%2.9%1.2%
Cal
Quantrill
DET4.260.5%41.0%24.7%13.3%6.4%2.8%1.1%
Jake
Odorizzi
KC4.159.0%39.5%23.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Zach
Plesac
DET4.158.0%38.5%22.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
Chris
Flexen
SD4.057.2%37.7%22.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
Kyle
Freeland
LAD4.056.8%37.3%21.6%11.2%5.2%2.2%0.8%
Ryan
Brasier
TB3.955.3%35.7%20.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
Dean
Kremer
TEX3.955.3%35.7%20.4%10.4%4.7%1.9%0.7%
Dylan
Bundy
CHW3.954.7%35.2%19.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
Alex
Faedo
CLE3.851.6%32.2%17.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
Dakota
Hudson
ATL3.750.0%30.7%16.6%7.9%3.4%1.3%0.5%
Garrett
Hill
CLE3.545.3%26.5%13.6%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
Jon
Heasley
HOU3.443.5%25.0%12.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
Jalen
Beeks
BOS3.342.4%24.1%12.0%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
Austin
Davis
TB1.34.3%1.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo111Hunter
Greene
27.2%+270
Byron
Buxton
MINNo106Johnny
Cueto
26.9%+270
Joc
Pederson
SFNo99Madison
Bumgarner
26.2%+280
Mookie
Betts
LADYes107Kyle
Freeland
24.5%+310
Eugenio
Suarez
SEAYes96Sean
Manaea
23.7%+320
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Jon
Heasley
23.5%+325
Willson
Contreras
CHCYes103Eric
Lauer
22.3%+350
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCYes103Eric
Lauer
22.3%+350
Jesus
Aguilar
MIAYes106Patrick
Corbin
22.2%+350
Trea
Turner
LADYes107Kyle
Freeland
21.8%+360
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo99Ryan
Brasier
21.7%+360
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes113Hunter
Greene
20.8%+380
Willy
Adames
MILYes103Justin
Steele
20.7%+385
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Jon
Heasley
20.4%+390
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo112Dane
Dunning
20.3%+390
Austin
Slater
SFYes93Madison
Bumgarner
20.2%+395
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes113Hunter
Greene
20.2%+395
C.J.
Cron
COLYes107Julio
Urias
20.0%+400
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIAYes106Patrick
Corbin
19.9%+405
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Jon
Heasley
19.9%+405
George
Springer
TORYes94Cole
Irvin
19.9%+405
Corey
Seager
TEXYes110Dean
Kremer
19.8%+405
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo112Dean
Kremer
19.7%+405
Nick
Fortes
MIAYes106Patrick
Corbin
19.3%+420
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo106Johnny
Cueto
18.9%+430
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Jon
Heasley
18.8%+430
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Jon
Heasley
18.8%+430
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORYes94Cole
Irvin
18.7%+435
Josh
Bell
WSHYes106Braxton
Garrett
18.6%+435
Mitch
Garver
TEXNo112Dean
Kremer
18.5%+440
J.D.
Martinez
BOSYes99Jalen
Beeks
18.3%+445
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Chris
Flexen
18.1%+455
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes110Dean
Kremer
17.9%+460
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Dakota
Hudson
17.8%+460
Austin
Hays
BALNo112Dane
Dunning
17.8%+460
Joey
Votto
CINYes113Taijuan
Walker
17.6%+470
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes94Alex
Faedo
17.6%+470
Evan
Longoria
SFYes93Madison
Bumgarner
17.4%+475
Rougned
Odor
BALYes110Dane
Dunning
17.2%+480
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Dylan
Bundy
17.1%+485
Rafael
Devers
BOSNo93Jalen
Beeks
17.1%+485
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes94Garrett
Hill
17.0%+490
Luis
Urias
MILYes103Justin
Steele
16.9%+490
Ryan
McMahon
COLNo102Julio
Urias
16.8%+495
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Cal
Quantrill
16.8%+495
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Garrett
Hill
16.8%+495
Will
Smith
LADYes107Kyle
Freeland
16.7%+500
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes111Dylan
Bundy
16.7%+500
Anthony
Santander
BALYes110Dane
Dunning
16.5%+505
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo97Dakota
Hudson
16.5%+505
Jesus
Sanchez
MIANo104Patrick
Corbin
16.5%+505
Jose
Miranda
MINNo106Johnny
Cueto
16.4%+510
Robert
Refsnyder
BOSYes99Jalen
Beeks
16.4%+510
Pedro
Severino
MILYes103Justin
Steele
16.2%+515
Victor
Caratini
MILYes103Justin
Steele
16.2%+515
Christian
Walker
ARIYes93Carlos
Rodon
16.2%+515
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo97Kyle
Wright
15.9%+530
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Dakota
Hudson
15.9%+530
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Dakota
Hudson
15.9%+530
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes94Alex
Faedo
15.8%+535
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes94Garrett
Hill
15.8%+535
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101Jon
Heasley
15.8%+535
Carlos
Correa
MINNo106Johnny
Cueto
15.7%+535
Gio
Urshela
MINNo106Johnny
Cueto
15.7%+535
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes93Ryan
Brasier
15.7%+540
Starling
Marte
NYMNo111Hunter
Greene
15.6%+540
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Alex
Faedo
15.5%+545
Kris
Bryant
COLYes107Julio
Urias
15.3%+555
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes111Johnny
Cueto
15.2%+555
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes110Dean
Kremer
15.1%+560
Bo
Bichette
TORYes94Cole
Irvin
15.1%+565
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Dylan
Bundy
15.1%+565
Brandon
Drury
CINNo111Taijuan
Walker
14.9%+570
Seby
Zavala
CHWNo106Dylan
Bundy
14.4%+595
Trevor
Story
BOSYes99Jalen
Beeks
14.4%+595
Darin
Ruf
SFYes93Madison
Bumgarner
14.3%+600
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes93Madison
Bumgarner
14.3%+600
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Zach
Plesac
14.2%+600
Ian
Happ
CHCYes103Eric
Lauer
14.1%+610
Michael
Brosseau
MILYes103Justin
Steele
14.1%+610
Adam
Duvall
ATLNo97Dakota
Hudson
14.0%+615
Cody
Bellinger
LADNo102Kyle
Freeland
14.0%+615
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes100Kyle
Wright
14.0%+615
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes94Cal
Quantrill
13.9%+620
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Jon
Heasley
13.8%+625
Justin
Turner
LADYes107Kyle
Freeland
13.8%+625
Chris
Taylor
LADYes107Kyle
Freeland
13.8%+625
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORYes94Cole
Irvin
13.7%+625
Miguel
Rojas
MIAYes106Patrick
Corbin
13.7%+630
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Dylan
Bundy
13.7%+630
Seth
Brown
OAKYes92Alek
Manoah
13.7%+630
Jordan
Luplow
ARIYes93Carlos
Rodon
13.6%+635
Tommy
Pham
CINNo111Taijuan
Walker
13.5%+645
Max
Muncy
LADNo102Kyle
Freeland
13.4%+645
Andrew
McCutchen
MILYes103Justin
Steele
13.4%+650
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo97Kyle
Wright
13.3%+650
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Dakota
Hudson
13.3%+650
Michael
Harris II
ATLYes100Dakota
Hudson
13.3%+655
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes94Zach
Plesac
13.3%+655
Alejandro
Kirk
TORYes94Cole
Irvin
13.1%+665
Luis
Robert
CHWNo106Dylan
Bundy
12.9%+675
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo102Kyle
Freeland
12.8%+680
Donovan
Solano
CINNo111Taijuan
Walker
12.7%+690
Mark
Canha
NYMNo111Hunter
Greene
12.7%+690
Christopher
Morel
CHCYes103Eric
Lauer
12.6%+695
Julio
Rodriguez
SEAYes96Sean
Manaea
12.6%+695
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFNo99Madison
Bumgarner
12.5%+700
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes111Dylan
Bundy
12.2%+725
Nelson
Cruz
WSHYes106Braxton
Garrett
12.1%+725
Ehire
Adrianza
WSHYes106Braxton
Garrett
12.1%+725
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo112Dean
Kremer
12.0%+735
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo97Dakota
Hudson
12.0%+735
Daulton
Varsho
ARINo99Carlos
Rodon
11.9%+740
Justin
Upton
SEAYes96Sean
Manaea
11.9%+745
Yan
Gomes
CHCYes103Eric
Lauer
11.8%+745
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Jon
Heasley
11.7%+755
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo99Ryan
Brasier
11.5%+770
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes107Julio
Urias
11.4%+775
Nomar
Mazara
SDYes95Chris
Flexen
11.3%+785
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes110Dean
Kremer
11.2%+790
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes110Dane
Dunning
11.2%+790
Trey
Mancini
BALNo112Dane
Dunning
11.2%+795
Kevin
Kiermaier
TBYes93Ryan
Brasier
11.1%+800
Tommy
Edman
STLYes100Kyle
Wright
11.1%+800
David
Bote
CHCYes103Eric
Lauer
11.0%+805
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo94Alek
Manoah
11.0%+810
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORYes94Cole
Irvin
10.9%+815
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes93Carlos
Rodon
10.8%+825
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo99Zach
Plesac
10.8%+830
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSYes99Jalen
Beeks
10.7%+840
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes107Julio
Urias
10.6%+845
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes94Garrett
Hill
10.5%+850
Luke
Voit
SDNo96Chris
Flexen
10.5%+855
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes110Dean
Kremer
10.4%+860
Dylan
Moore
SEAYes96Sean
Manaea
10.4%+865
Albert
Almora
Jr.
CINNo111Taijuan
Walker
10.3%+870
Jonathan
India
CINNo111Taijuan
Walker
10.3%+870
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Alex
Faedo
10.0%+895
Eric
Hosmer
SDYes95Chris
Flexen
9.9%+910
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSYes99Jalen
Beeks
9.9%+915
Jeff
McNeil
NYMYes113Hunter
Greene
9.8%+920
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes94Alex
Faedo
9.8%+920
Wander
Franco
TBYes93Ryan
Brasier
9.7%+930
Alex
Kirilloff
MINYes111Johnny
Cueto
9.7%+935
Brian
Anderson
MIAYes106Patrick
Corbin
9.6%+940
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Sean
Manaea
9.6%+940
Kolten
Wong
MILNo101Justin
Steele
9.5%+950
Jake
Meyers
HOUNo101Jon
Heasley
9.5%+955
Nico
Hoerner
CHCYes103Eric
Lauer
9.4%+965
Tommy
La Stella
SFNo99Madison
Bumgarner
9.4%+965
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo99Zach
Plesac
9.3%+975
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Garrett
Hill
9.3%+975
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo106Dylan
Bundy
9.1%+1000
Robbie
Grossman
DETYes94Cal
Quantrill
9.1%+1005
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo96Chris
Flexen
9.0%+1005
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes93Ryan
Brasier
9.0%+1015
Rafael
Ortega
CHCNo101Eric
Lauer
8.9%+1025
Stephen
Piscotty
OAKNo94Alek
Manoah
8.9%+1025
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo94Alek
Manoah
8.9%+1025
Connor
Joe
COLYes107Julio
Urias
8.8%+1030
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes106Braxton
Garrett
8.8%+1040
Luke
Williams
MIAYes106Patrick
Corbin
8.8%+1040
Jonathan
Arauz
BALYes110Dane
Dunning
8.7%+1050
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo99Cal
Quantrill
8.5%+1070
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Garrett
Hill
8.5%+1070
Orlando
Arcia
ATLNo97Dakota
Hudson
8.4%+1095
Riley
Greene
DETYes94Cal
Quantrill
8.3%+1105
Christian
Arroyo
BOSYes99Jalen
Beeks
8.2%+1115
Christian
Yelich
MILNo101Justin
Steele
8.2%+1120
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes113Hunter
Greene
8.0%+1145
Max
Kepler
MINYes111Johnny
Cueto
7.9%+1165
Luis
Arraez
MINYes111Johnny
Cueto
7.9%+1165
Billy
Hamilton
MIAYes106Patrick
Corbin
7.9%+1170
Maikel
Franco
WSHYes106Braxton
Garrett
7.9%+1170
Austin
Wynns
SFYes93Madison
Bumgarner
7.8%+1185
Thairo
Estrada
SFYes93Madison
Bumgarner
7.8%+1185
Jesse
Winker
SEANo95Sean
Manaea
7.8%+1190
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHNo104Braxton
Garrett
7.7%+1195
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo111Taijuan
Walker
7.7%+1195
Robbie
Grossman
DETYes94Zach
Plesac
7.5%+1225
Santiago
Espinal
TORYes94Cole
Irvin
7.0%+1320
Jacob
Stallings
MIAYes106Patrick
Corbin
7.0%+1335
Luke
Maile
CLENo99Garrett
Hill
7.0%+1340
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes110Dane
Dunning
6.9%+1345
Cavan
Biggio
TORNo92Cole
Irvin
6.9%+1350
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo112Dane
Dunning
6.9%+1350
Trent
Grisham
SDYes95Chris
Flexen
6.8%+1365
Steven
Kwan
CLEYes94Alex
Faedo
6.8%+1375
Richie
Palacios
CLEYes94Alex
Faedo
6.8%+1375
Richie
Palacios
CLEYes94Garrett
Hill
6.8%+1375
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo106Dylan
Bundy
6.5%+1430
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes100Kyle
Wright
6.3%+1480