MLB

3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Thursday 6/30/22

Austan Kas  —  @AustanKas Jun 30th, 2022
Nick Senzel, who is on a heater and is running more of late, is a low-salary way to get exposure to a wind-blowing-out Wrigley. Which other value bats should you roster?

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.

Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.

Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?

Nick Senzel, OF, Reds ($2,500)

Nick Senzel is swinging a hot bat, and he has a sweet matchup tonight against Kyle Hendricks at a wind-blowing-out Wrigley.

Senzel was the number-two overall pick back in 2016 and seemed like a pretty safe bet as an elite college bat. A string of injuries and meh performance has hampered his career to this point, but Senzel is still a very talented player -- and things might be starting to click.

Over the past six games, Senzel is hitting .550 with a 236 wRC+ while striking out just 13.0% of the time. Although he has just one extra-base hit in that span, Senzel's DFS upside has gotten a lift from his legs as he's swiped three bags in that stretch.

Hendricks has a 4.57 SIERA and 17.2% strikeout rate. He's one of the worst pitchers on tonight's slate, and the Cincinnati Reds' 4.84 implied total -- the second-highest of the night -- reflects that.

Senzel is an economical way to get exposure to the Reds, and he profiles as a sweet value bat.

Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Pirates ($2,700)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a legit stacking option today against Adrian Houser. On a lot of slates, Pittsburgh's 4.11 implied total wouldn't stand out. Today's slate isn't most slates, and that clip is the fifth-highest.

Vogelbach will likely be in the heart of the Pirates' lineup, and he produces good numbers against right-handers, sporting a .376 wOBA and 49.0% fly-ball rate in the split.

On top of that, Houser is much worse against left-handers, permitting a .363 wOBA in the split.

Vogelbach can be used as a one-off or paired with guys like Ke'Bryan Hayes ($2,900), Bryan Reynolds ($2,800) and Oneil Cruz ($3,100) in full-on stacks or mini-stacks.

Rafael Ortega, OF, Cubs ($2,300)

I referenced Wrigley earlier, and it looks like the hot spot on this five-game slate. The Chicago Cubs and Reds account for the night's two highest implied totals, and with the wind blowing out, we should see some fireworks.

It's the Cubs who carry the slate's top implied total (5.16), and their offense really isn't bad despite the team's putrid record. Chicago is 14th in wOBA (.314) for the season, and they are 8th in wOBA (.329) across the past 30 days.

Rafael Ortega has been penciled into the leadoff spot lately against righties, and he's a superb value play if he's there again tonight versus right-hander Graham Ashcraft.

While the Cubs boast a juicy implied total, I have some trepidation about four-man Cubs stacks due to Ashcraft's 57.5% ground-ball rate. However, he's striking out just 15.8% of hitters, and he'll turn it over to a bullpen that ranks next to last in reliever xFIP (4.56).

As a low-salary leadoff hitter for the offense with the night's best implied total, Ortega is an obvious value. We project him for 12.3 FanDuel points and rate him as the top point-per-dollar bat.