3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 6/30/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Joey Votto To Hit a Home Run (+315)
With the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field, we're going back there for the second straight day.
Wind can always be a beneficial factor for hitters and that is often accentuated at Wrigley Field, making it a very favorable hitting environment. Tonight, we are turning to Joey Votto for a home run but Brandon Drury (+350) or Patrick Wisdom (+210) are also in the running for a homer.
Votto is going up against Kyle Hendricks, who comes in struggling versus left-handed hitters to the tune of a 5.07 xFIP, a .571 SLG, a .397 wOBA, 2.31 HR/9, a 47.2% fly-ball rate, and a 34.9% hard-contact rate. This is why it's no surprise the Cincinnati Reds are carrying a 4.84 implied run total tonight.
Votto comes in with a 96 wRC+, a .184 ISO, a 37.3% fly-ball rate, and a 33.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Those are good but not great numbers so far this season, however, the matchup and the extra wind are very strong factors that we can't pass up.
Of course, we have to add Votto To Record an RBI (+105).
Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-152)
Logan Gilbert has a strong matchup tonight and we're looking to his strikeout prop.
Gilbert will be at home to take on the Oakland Athletics, who come in with a 23.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (seventh-worst in the league). This is nothing new; we're going to continue to attack the Athletics and their weaker, strike-out-heavy lineup.
Gilbert has been strong for the Seattle Mariners this season with a 24.9% strikeout rate overall, which we see jump up slightly to 26.3% while at home this season. He's recorded at least six punches in four of his last five starts -- and 7 of his last 10 starts.
Obviously, the juice is a bit much here, so looking to Gilbert 7+ Strikeouts (+130) is the route I'm going.
Considering Gilbert has thrown 95 pitches or more in 8 of his last 10 starts, he will be out there to face plenty of hitters, giving him the potential to reach for seven strikeouts.
Eugenio Suarez To Record an RBI (+130)
The Mariners' offense is also in a good spot tonight to put up some runs.
They will be taking on Adrian Martinez, who will be making his second career start for the Athletics.
Martinez has a total of 5.1 innings pitched at the MLB level, and frankly, there's nothing to really say about him given the very small sample size. His minor league numbers are modest at best, and eventually, this game will get to the Athletics' bullpen, putting the Mariners in a great spot.
That's the long and short of it. We shouldn't be worried about a pitcher making his second career start, so we're aiming for a plus-money prop on a proven hitter.
Eugenio Suarez comes in with a 120 wRC+, a .196 ISO, a .328 ISO, a big 44.6% fly-ball rate, and a 31.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. His numbers are equal or better versus lefties. He'll be in a good spot no matter who they bring out of the bullpen.