3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/28/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Adolis Garcia To Hit a Home Run (+360)/Corey Seager To Hit a Home Run (+390)
The Texas Rangers have a solid matchup for their offense, and a few hitters stand out tonight.
As usual with a large slate of games, I have interest in several hitters around the league. Both Adolis Garcia (+360) and Corey Seager (+390) are great options for the Rangers, while their teammates Kole Calhoun (+450) and Nathaniel Lowe (+540) aren't too far behind. Elsewhere around the league, Rowdy Tellez (+440) and Eugenio Suarez (+295) are two others I'll be on.
As for the Rangers, they are going up against Jon Heasley from the Kansas City Royals in a spot we should be looking to target via player props. This season, Heasley is allowing a .610 SLG, .413 wOBA, 5.61 xFIP, 3.32 HR/9, and 49.2% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. That puts Seager in a good spot with his .170 ISO, 41.9% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate versus righties.
This season versus right-handed hitters, Heasley has a 4.93 xFIP, 38.7% fly-ball rate, and 37.1% hard-contact rate but has yet to allow any home runs. His high fly-ball rate and hard-contact rate would suggest he is due for some regression, and those fly balls are going to start going over the wall.
This is why I also like Garcia with a .136 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .256 ISO, 38.3% fly-ball rate, and 38.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Heasley is bad against lefties and is due for regression against righties -- it's that simple.
With all of that said, I'm also adding Garcia To Record an RBI (+110) and Seager To Record an RBI (+115).
Jon Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+124)
Sticking in that same game, we're turning to the strikeout prop.
Jon Gray will be on the mound for the Rangers, and his strikeout prop of 5.5 is worth considering. Gray is a solid pitcher overall and comes in with a 25.5% strikeout rate on the season, which he has really pushed higher in some of his recent starts. Gray posted a strikeout rate of 41% and 48% in two of his last five starts, showing he can really access his ceiling at times.
We've also seen Gray go over 100 pitches in each of his last three starts and 91 pitches or more in the four starts prior. He has a very long leash and goes deeper into games, allowing himself time to pick up strikeouts.
Tonight, he's going up against the Kansas City Royals, who have a 21.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 21st in the league. However, since the start of June, the Royals are striking out 22.5% of the time, which is 18th in the split. If we adjust even further for just the last 14 days -- yes, a very small sample size -- the Royals are striking out 27.0% of the time, which is the third-worst.
While the 14-day sample size isn't a ton to pull from, they are a team trending downward -- for however briefly -- while Gray is trending upward. This is a good intersection that leans in Gray's favor, which is why I'm also going to Gray 7+ Strikeouts (+255).
Will Smith To Record an RBI (+100)
The Los Angeles Dodgers laid an egg last night, but we're going back to the well tonight.
Getting shut out at Coors Field is a rough look, and there's no way around it. The Dodgers are one of the best offenses in the league, so there's no time to dwell on the past, and we move forward with tonight's slate.
They have a 6.38 implied run total and are taking on Kyle Freeland, who comes in with a 4.58 xFIP versus right-handed hitters, along with allowing a .410 SLG, .315 wOBA, 33.7% fly-ball rate, and 33.0% hard-contact rate.
This is the same situation as yesterday with C.J. Cron's RBI prop; we're simply taking a hitter in the middle of the lineup for a team at Coors Field. That would be Will Smith, who has a 167 wRC+, .408 wOBA, .260 ISO, and 48.9% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers. As usual, I'm also adding Smith 2+ RBI (+320).