MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 6/27/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
LADChad
Kuhl
11.56.5363.5%47.8%33.2%21.2%12.5%
NYYPaul
Blackburn
8.55.2643.0%27.7%16.2%8.6%4.2%
WSHZach
Thompson
9.55.1340.7%25.7%14.7%7.7%3.7%
TORConnor
Seabold
9.05.0639.5%24.7%14.0%7.2%3.4%
COLTyler
Anderson
11.54.9737.9%23.3%13.0%6.6%3.1%
LAALucas
Giolito
8.54.5029.7%16.9%8.7%4.0%1.7%
TEXKris
Bubic
8.54.4729.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
PITErick
Fedde
9.54.3727.5%15.3%7.6%3.5%1.4%
MINTriston
McKenzie
8.04.1123.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
SEATyler
Wells
7.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
KCMartin
Perez
8.54.0322.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
CHWNoah
Syndergaard
8.54.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
BOSKevin
Gausman
9.03.9420.6%10.5%4.8%2.0%0.7%
STLPablo
Lopez
7.53.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
CLESonny
Gray
8.03.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
MIAAdam
Wainwright
7.53.5915.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
BALGeorge
Kirby
7.53.4113.1%5.9%2.3%0.8%0.3%
OAKJordan
Montgomery
8.53.2411.0%4.7%1.8%0.6%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Kevin
Gausman
BOS6.991.1%81.4%68.1%52.9%38.0%25.3%15.6%
Lucas
Giolito
LAA6.286.8%74.5%59.1%43.1%28.8%17.7%10.1%
Pablo
Lopez
STL5.781.9%67.1%50.3%34.4%21.5%12.2%6.4%
Triston
McKenzie
MIN5.680.5%65.2%48.1%32.3%19.8%11.1%5.7%
Sonny
Gray
CLE5.580.3%64.9%47.8%32.0%19.5%10.9%5.6%
Jordan
Montgomery
OAK5.478.2%62.0%44.7%29.2%17.4%9.4%4.7%
Adam
Wainwright
MIA4.972.2%54.4%36.8%22.5%12.4%6.2%2.9%
Tyler
Anderson
COL4.870.0%51.6%34.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Martin
Perez
KC4.769.2%50.7%33.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
George
Kirby
BAL4.768.9%50.4%33.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
Erick
Fedde
PIT4.362.6%43.3%26.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
Noah
Syndergaard
CHW4.260.8%41.4%25.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
Chad
Kuhl
LAD4.056.1%36.5%21.0%10.8%4.9%2.0%0.8%
Tyler
Wells
SEA3.749.7%30.5%16.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
Kris
Bubic
TEX3.749.5%30.3%16.3%7.7%3.3%1.3%0.4%
Paul
Blackburn
NYY3.648.3%29.2%15.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
Zach
Thompson
WSH3.444.4%25.8%13.1%5.9%2.3%0.8%0.3%
Connor
Seabold
TOR3.443.1%24.7%12.3%5.4%2.1%0.8%0.2%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Byron
Buxton
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
29.6%+238
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes104Erick
Fedde
28.1%+256
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo103Paul
Blackburn
26.8%+273
Mike
Trout
LAANo103Lucas
Giolito
25.1%+298
C.J.
Cron
COLYes108Tyler
Anderson
24.6%+306
Trea
Turner
LADNo108Chad
Kuhl
23.1%+333
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo99George
Kirby
22.7%+341
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes94Kevin
Gausman
20.8%+381
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103Lucas
Giolito
20.8%+381
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Tyler
Wells
20.7%+383
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo106Zach
Thompson
20.7%+384
Anthony
Santander
BALYes96George
Kirby
20.6%+386
Jorge
Soler
MIANo91Adam
Wainwright
19.9%+401
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo103Paul
Blackburn
19.7%+408
Joey
Gallo
NYYYes109Paul
Blackburn
19.7%+409
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Lucas
Giolito
19.5%+412
Carlos
Correa
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
19.1%+424
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes109Chad
Kuhl
19.0%+425
Rougned
Odor
BALYes96George
Kirby
19.0%+427
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes104Erick
Fedde
19.0%+427
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes108Lucas
Giolito
18.3%+447
Austin
Hays
BALNo99George
Kirby
18.0%+457
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo103Paul
Blackburn
17.9%+458
Mitch
Garver
TEXYes92Kris
Bubic
17.9%+460
Taylor
Trammell
SEAYes96Tyler
Wells
17.8%+460
Juan
Soto
WSHYes104Zach
Thompson
17.8%+463
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes92Kris
Bubic
17.3%+479
Ryan
McMahon
COLNo109Tyler
Anderson
17.1%+484
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes109Paul
Blackburn
17.1%+485
Will
Smith
LADNo108Chad
Kuhl
16.7%+500
Josh
Bell
WSHYes104Zach
Thompson
16.5%+507
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Pablo
Lopez
16.2%+516
Jazz
Chisholm
MIAYes97Adam
Wainwright
16.2%+517
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes109Chad
Kuhl
15.7%+536
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes96George
Kirby
15.4%+548
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo103Noah
Syndergaard
15.4%+550
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo103Noah
Syndergaard
15.4%+550
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Sonny
Gray
15.0%+567
Max
Muncy
LADYes109Chad
Kuhl
15.0%+567
Corey
Seager
TEXNo92Kris
Bubic
14.9%+570
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes97Adam
Wainwright
14.9%+570
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
14.9%+571
Sean
Murphy
OAKYes103Jordan
Montgomery
14.8%+574
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Tyler
Wells
14.8%+576
Jake
Burger
CHWNo103Noah
Syndergaard
14.7%+579
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Tyler
Wells
14.2%+602
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes92Kris
Bubic
14.2%+606
Christian
Bethancourt
OAKYes103Jordan
Montgomery
14.1%+609
Luis
Robert
CHWNo103Noah
Syndergaard
14.0%+612
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo91Adam
Wainwright
13.9%+620
Dan
Vogelbach
PITYes104Erick
Fedde
13.7%+629
Michael
Chavis
PITNo106Erick
Fedde
13.7%+632
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes108Noah
Syndergaard
13.4%+646
Max
Stassi
LAANo103Lucas
Giolito
13.3%+650
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo103Noah
Syndergaard
13.3%+650
Chris
Taylor
LADNo108Chad
Kuhl
13.1%+661
Trevor
Story
BOSNo101Kevin
Gausman
13.1%+662
Trey
Mancini
BALNo99George
Kirby
12.9%+675
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Sonny
Gray
12.9%+675
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo99George
Kirby
12.9%+675
Max
Kepler
MINYes103Triston
McKenzie
12.9%+676
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Sonny
Gray
12.9%+676
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo92Kris
Bubic
12.8%+680
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo91Adam
Wainwright
12.6%+691
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo103Paul
Blackburn
12.6%+692
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo101Kevin
Gausman
12.4%+705
Hoy
Park
PITYes104Erick
Fedde
12.2%+717
Alex
Kirilloff
MINYes103Triston
McKenzie
12.1%+723
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes92Kris
Bubic
12.1%+724
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Pablo
Lopez
12.0%+733
Kole
Calhoun
TEXNo92Kris
Bubic
11.7%+754
Trayce
Thompson
LADNo108Chad
Kuhl
11.6%+760
Charlie
Blackmon
COLNo109Tyler
Anderson
11.6%+764
Gio
Urshela
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
11.5%+769
Jose
Miranda
MINNo99Triston
McKenzie
11.5%+769
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96Tyler
Wells
11.4%+775
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo103Noah
Syndergaard
11.2%+796
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes108Lucas
Giolito
11.1%+803
Jonah
Bride
OAKYes103Jordan
Montgomery
11.0%+807
Justin
Turner
LADNo108Chad
Kuhl
10.8%+822
Hunter
Dozier
KCYes92Martin
Perez
10.7%+833
Emmanuel
Rivera
KCYes92Martin
Perez
10.7%+833
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes108Tyler
Anderson
10.7%+839
Brandon
Marsh
LAAYes108Lucas
Giolito
10.3%+875
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo101Kevin
Gausman
10.2%+878
Sheldon
Neuse
OAKYes103Jordan
Montgomery
10.2%+879
Tyler
Nevin
BALNo99George
Kirby
10.0%+896
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo91Adam
Wainwright
10.0%+899
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes96George
Kirby
10.0%+902
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes104Erick
Fedde
9.9%+908
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo106Zach
Thompson
9.9%+912
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Sonny
Gray
9.8%+917
Nick
Gordon
MINYes103Triston
McKenzie
9.8%+917
Elias
Diaz
COLYes108Tyler
Anderson
9.8%+921
Gavin
Lux
LADYes109Chad
Kuhl
9.5%+953
Dylan
Moore
SEANo99Tyler
Wells
9.3%+976
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes104Zach
Thompson
9.1%+998
Maikel
Franco
WSHNo106Zach
Thompson
9.1%+1002
Jarren
Duran
BOSYes94Kevin
Gausman
9.1%+1004
Matthew
Duffy
LAANo103Lucas
Giolito
8.8%+1031
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo103Paul
Blackburn
8.8%+1031
Juan
Yepez
STLNo91Pablo
Lopez
8.6%+1061
Tommy
Edman
STLYes97Pablo
Lopez
8.6%+1069
Austin
Hedges
CLENo99Sonny
Gray
8.5%+1072
Edward
Olivares
KCYes92Martin
Perez
8.5%+1080
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes94Kevin
Gausman
8.3%+1103
Michael
Perez
PITYes104Erick
Fedde
8.3%+1108
Bligh
Madris
PITYes104Erick
Fedde
8.3%+1108
Luis
Garcia
WSHNo106Zach
Thompson
8.2%+1113
Steven
Kwan
CLEYes103Sonny
Gray
8.2%+1119
Andrew
Benintendi
KCNo92Martin
Perez
8.2%+1125
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo103Noah
Syndergaard
8.0%+1145
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes97Pablo
Lopez
7.8%+1187
Justin
Upton
SEANo99Tyler
Wells
7.7%+1191
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Sonny
Gray
7.7%+1191
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Sonny
Gray
7.7%+1191
Carlos
Santana
KCYes92Martin
Perez
7.7%+1199
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes92Kris
Bubic
7.7%+1199
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCYes92Martin
Perez
7.7%+1199
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes108Lucas
Giolito
7.7%+1199
Ramon
Laureano
OAKYes103Jordan
Montgomery
7.7%+1205
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes104Zach
Thompson
7.4%+1245
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo103Paul
Blackburn
7.2%+1287
Jose
Iglesias
COLYes108Tyler
Anderson
7.1%+1312
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes108Tyler
Anderson
7.1%+1312
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Sonny
Gray
7.0%+1338
MJ
Melendez
KCNo92Martin
Perez
6.9%+1348
Reese
McGuire
CHWYes108Noah
Syndergaard
6.8%+1370
Elvis
Andrus
OAKYes103Jordan
Montgomery
6.8%+1376
Chad
Pinder
OAKYes103Jordan
Montgomery
6.8%+1376