3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Monday 6/27/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Lucas Giolito, P, White Sox ($8,000)
Lucas Giolito has been in a funk, but he's too good -- and his underlying metrics are too good -- for this to last too much longer. With Giolito's salary down to $8,000, this is a great time to buy in for tonight's friendly matchup with the Los Angeles Angels.
Let's get the bad out of the way -- Giolito has been tagged for 15 earned runs across his past two starts. That includes four dingers and just six punchouts over 10 innings. Not good. He's now got a 9.47 ERA over his last 25 2/3 innings (five starts).
But his 4.87 xFIP in that five-start span is much more palatable, and he's also faced the stout offenses of the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays (twice) for three of those five starts. In short, things will improve.
Giolito's season-long line is still pretty dope as he sports a 3.69 SIERA and 27.2% strikeout rate. The Angels' offense is pretty miserable outside of Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Jared Walsh. Even with those four doing their thing, LA sits just 17th in wOBA (.310) with the highest strikeout rate (25.5%).
We project Giolito for 29.4 FanDuel points and rank him as the slate's second-best point-per-dollar arm -- behind only Kevin Gausman ($9,500), the slate's top arm by a wide distance, per our projections. The $1,500 in savings Giolito offers from Gausman is huge on a Coors slate, and it's not like Gausman is a stone-cold lock for a big day in a tough matchup with the Boston Red Sox.
Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pirates ($2,900)
Our model loooooves Bryan Reynolds today.
Reynolds is taking on Erick Fedde, and that puts the switch-hitting Reynolds into his preferred split. Against righties this season, Reynolds has amassed a .344 wOBA and 35.2% fly-ball rate, compared to a .313 wOBA and 23.1% fly-ball rate against lefties.
On top of that, Reynolds has been red-hot, posting a .390 wOBA in June.
Fedde owns a 4.78 SIERA, 18.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% swinging-strike rate and 10.7% walk rate. His strikeout rate is only 16.2% against lefties. It's a really good matchup for Reynolds.
Our model has Reynolds scoring an eye-popping 17.1 FanDuel points. That's third overall among all hitters and tops among non-Coors sticks. Reynolds is by far our top-ranked point-per-dollar bat.
Max Kepler, OF, Twins ($2,600)
All of that is true again today, and I'm going to go heavy on him once more.
Kepler will see Triston McKenzie, who has allowed a 41.0% hard-hit rate and 54.5% fly-ball rate overall, leading to 1.70 homers per nine. Lefties have gotten to McKenzie for a 44.4% hard-hit rate and 56.3% fly-ball rate.
The left-handed Kepler is low-key killing it this season. Despite a meh .332 wOBA, Kepler has put up a .394 expected wOBA and is walking (12.9% rate) nearly as much as he's striking out (14.8%).
We have Kepler projected for 12.0 FanDuel points and slot him in as the third-best point-per-dollar hitter.