MLB Betting Guide: Friday 6/24/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.5 (-112): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
What an awesome series this is going to be. We knew that coming in, and the opener last night certainly lived up to the billing, with the New York Yankees scoring four in the bottom of the ninth for a comeback win.
Despite the headline pitching matchup, our model likes the over.
Verlander and Severino are nasty, but they have long-ball issues.
Severino has permitted 1.36 jacks per nine this season, and he's showing heavy lefty-righty splits. Righties have hit just 0.92 homers per nine against him while striking out at a 37.5% clip. Lefties have tagged Severino for 2.00 dingers per nine and are striking out just 18.5% of the time. Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker could have some fun with the short porch.
After completing just six innings across 2020 and 2021, Verlander has been a massive success this year, but he's giving up some juicy contact, including a 41.0% fly-ball rate. He's also benefitted from an easy schedule. He hasn't faced a team better than 14th in wOBA in any of his past seven starts. In his lone start this year against a team in the top five in wOBA (Toronto), he surrendered three earned runs and two taters across six innings.
We project New York to win by a score of 4.77-4.36. That's 9.13 runs -- well over the 7.5-run total. Our model gives the over a 63.2% chance to win out and rates it as a three-star wager. It's our best bet of the night.
Tigers Moneyline (+140): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
It's not often we can say nice things about the Detroit Tigers, a team that boasts a -100 run differential and is 2-8 over the last 10. But there's some value on the Tigers tonight.
Detroit is on the road and will go up against Merrill Kelly. After a fast start to the season, Kelly has cooled considerably. Over his last four starts, a run that includes two games against the Cincinnati Reds and one versus the Pittsburgh Pirates -- so not exactly a gauntlet -- Kelly owns a mere 19.8% strikeout rate with a 9.8% walk rate.
On top of the poor run, Kelly is due for some negative regression in the homer department. His homer-to-fly-ball rate is only 5.1% this season. His career mark is 12.4%, and he's never posted a single-season clip under 12.6%. Sure, the Tigers' offense is terrible, but Kelly isn't likely to overpower them.
Rony Garcia is going for the Tigers, and he is facing an Arizona Diamondbacks offense that's actually been colder than Detroit's of late. Across the last 14 days, the D-Backs sit 29th in wOBA (.277) while Detroit's offense is way up in 28th (.284).
And Garcia hasn't been too bad this season, carrying a 3.26 SIERA through 38 innings -- although his batted-ball profile is ugly.
One area where Detroit will absolutely have an edge tonight is the bullpen. The Tigers' relievers are 13th in xFIP (3.91) while Arizona's 'pen holds the 2nd-worst xFIP (4.57).
In all, we give the Tigers a 44.8% chance to win on Friday. Their +140 moneyline price implies win odds of just 41.6%. Taking the Tigers on the moneyline is a one-star bet, according to our numbers.