3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for Thursday 6/23/22
Stacks are an integral part of daily fantasy baseball. They can push a team to the top of a GPP by driving upside. However, they're also viable in cash games, namely smaller (two-person or three-person) stacks that mitigate the volatility of a full four-person stack.
This article is your home throughout the 2022 Major League Baseball season for the day's top stacks. The primary goal is to identify the highest-scoring upside stack. Still, game theory will play a role in contrarian stacks making the cut as GPP options. Nevertheless, chalky stacks will make appearances in this space, too.
Beyond my analysis in this space, I strongly suggest numberFire premium members using our DFS Sharpstack tool and hitting heat map tool. The DFS Sharpstack helps plug stacks into optimized lineups, allowing you to change parameters and lock or exclude players and teams. Meanwhile, the heat map offers a one-stop-shop for the opposing starting pitcher, implied total, park factor, and other notable goodies.
Now, let's look at the top stacks on today's main slate that starts on FanDuel at 12:10 pm ET.
It's hard to believe Zach Plesac looked like a promising pitcher in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Clearly, it was a flash in the pan.
Since 2021, he's had a 4.59 ERA, 4.69 xFIP, and allowed 1.41 homers per nine innings in 210 innings. Plesac's 4.41 ERA this season is more than two runs lower than his 6.44 Expected ERA (xERA).
In addition, Plesac has been underwhelming against lefties and righties. Since last year, lefties have had a .321 wOBA against the right-handed hurler. Same-handed counterparts have had a .317 wOBA. Therefore, lefties and righties for the Minnesota Twins are both in play. The Twins' 5.34 implied total is a slate-leading mark.
Since Plesac has had a below-average 15.2 percent strikeout rate this year, stacking power against him makes sense. As a result, Byron Buxton ($3,900) is the top selection. He's had a .337 ISO versus righties since last year. Carlos Correa ($3,300) mashed a pair of taters last night, and he's had a .212 ISO against righties since last year. The shortstop is an excellent pick, too.
However, gamers shouldn't sleep on Alex Kirilloff ($2,400). The 24-year-old slugger annihilated Triple-A pitching before Minnesota recalled him from the minors. Kirilloff launched 10 long-balls in 157 plate appearances down on the farm. He hasn't been perfect since rejoining the Twins, but his Statcast data in the small sample has been drool-inducing.
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have a dreamy matchup and juicy 4.79 implied total. Contrary to Jason Alexander's 2.42 ERA in four starts (22 and 1/3 innings), he's been extremely lucky. The 29-year-old rookie righty sports a 5.33 xERA and 5.31 SIERA that better represent realistic expectations for his results from now on.
Alexander has struck out a pathetic 8.0 percent of the hitters he's faced. However, he hasn't offset his strikeout rate from a bygone era with impeccable control as he's had a 9.0 percent walk rate that's worse than the league average. He is a ticking time bomb for a blow-up start.
Alexander's impending messy start makes all of the Cardinals stackable, save for whoever catches. However, the crown jewel is Paul Goldschmidt ($4,100). The team exercised caution on Tuesday, sitting him with back tightness. Goldy was back in the lineup on Wednesday, rewarding the decision with a homer.
Looking a little lower in the lineup, Juan Yepez ($2,500) is a cap-friendly pick. The rookie right-handed hitter has thrived in righty-righty matchups. In 118 plate appearances in the split, he's had six homers with a .339 OBP, 220 ISO, and 140 wRC+.
The Cleveland Guardians were in a slugfest with the Twins last night, and the two teams might carry the fireworks over to this afternoon. Devin Smeltzer is a pitch-to-contact lefty, evidenced by his 12.4 percent strikeout rate. The lefty has had a 3.52 ERA. That's been lucky -- just how fortunate he has been depends on your preferred ERA estimator.
Smeltzer's 5.02 xFIP and 5.18 SIERA suggest he's due for a beatdown. However, his 3.77 xERA has been more supportive of his sub-4.00 ERA. Still, pitching to contact always leaves results in the hands of fielders and the vagaries of batted-ball luck. Thus, the Guardians -- owners of a 4.69 implied total -- have scoring upside if Smeltzer isn't precise with his location.
The must-use option in the stack is Jose Ramirez ($4,300). Since 2019, he's devoured lefties to the tune of a .359 OBP, .258 ISO, and 140 wRC+. The switch-hitting infielder is going off this year and adds scoring upside with his wheels, swiping 12 bases in 15 attempts.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.