MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 6/20/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
BOSAlex
Faedo
9.55.3845.0%29.5%17.6%9.6%4.8%
LAAKris
Bubic
9.05.1440.9%25.9%14.8%7.8%3.7%
ATLLogan
Webb
8.04.3827.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
NYMTrevor
Rogers
8.04.3827.7%15.4%7.7%3.5%1.4%
TORLance
Lynn
8.54.3527.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
MILMiles
Mikolas
7.54.1924.5%13.1%6.3%2.8%1.1%
CHWJose
Berrios
8.54.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
DETJosh
Winckowski
9.54.1223.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
PITCaleb
Kilian
8.04.0221.8%11.3%5.2%2.2%0.8%
CHCJT
Brubaker
8.03.9821.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
SDZach
Davies
7.03.8819.6%9.9%4.4%1.8%0.7%
KCNoah
Syndergaard
9.03.8619.3%9.7%4.3%1.7%0.6%
MIADavid
Peterson
8.03.6215.9%7.5%3.2%1.2%0.4%
SFMax
Fried
8.03.6215.9%7.5%3.2%1.2%0.4%
NYYShane
McClanahan
6.53.3912.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%
STLCorbin
Burnes
7.53.3111.8%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
ARIYu
Darvish
7.03.129.6%4.0%1.5%0.5%0.1%
TBGerrit
Cole
6.53.119.5%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Corbin
Burnes
STL7.794.9%88.3%78.1%65.0%50.6%36.7%24.8%
Gerrit
Cole
TB7.794.8%88.1%77.9%64.7%50.3%36.4%24.6%
Shane
McClanahan
NYY6.588.9%77.7%63.2%47.5%32.9%21.0%12.3%
Yu
Darvish
ARI6.387.4%75.3%60.1%44.2%29.8%18.5%10.6%
Max
Fried
SF6.286.8%74.5%59.1%43.1%28.8%17.7%10.1%
Jose
Berrios
CHW5.681.3%66.2%49.3%33.4%20.7%11.7%6.1%
Logan
Webb
ATL5.478.1%61.9%44.5%29.1%17.2%9.3%4.6%
Lance
Lynn
TOR5.275.8%58.9%41.4%26.3%15.2%8.0%3.8%
Trevor
Rogers
NYM5.175.4%58.4%40.9%25.9%14.8%7.8%3.7%
JT
Brubaker
CHC4.870.1%51.8%34.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Miles
Mikolas
MIL4.870.0%51.6%34.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
David
Peterson
MIA4.667.4%48.7%31.4%18.2%9.5%4.5%2.0%
Alex
Faedo
BOS4.056.5%36.9%21.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
Noah
Syndergaard
KC3.954.9%35.4%20.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
Zach
Davies
SD3.954.9%35.4%20.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
Josh
Winckowski
DET3.953.7%34.2%19.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
Caleb
Kilian
PIT3.750.6%31.3%17.0%8.2%3.5%1.4%0.5%
Kris
Bubic
LAA3.647.8%28.8%15.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Mike
Trout
LAAYes103Kris
Bubic
27.9%+259
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Alex
Faedo
24.3%+311
Vladimir
Guerrero Jr.
TORNo106Lance
Lynn
24.2%+312
Aaron
Judge
NYYYes94Shane
McClanahan
22.9%+336
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Alex
Faedo
21.7%+360
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Caleb
Kilian
21.4%+366
George
Springer
TORNo106Lance
Lynn
20.7%+384
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes92Gerrit
Cole
20.5%+389
Josh
Donaldson
NYYYes94Shane
McClanahan
20.4%+390
Evan
Longoria
SFYes97Max
Fried
20.3%+392
Matt
Chapman
TORNo106Lance
Lynn
20.1%+398
Austin
Riley
ATLNo97Logan
Webb
19.9%+403
MJ
Melendez
KCYes108Noah
Syndergaard
19.5%+412
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo106Lance
Lynn
19.5%+413
Pete
Alonso
NYMYes98Trevor
Rogers
19.3%+417
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Jose
Berrios
18.9%+429
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo92JT
Brubaker
18.6%+438
Dan
Vogelbach
PITYes95Caleb
Kilian
18.3%+447
Jorge
Soler
MIAYes98David
Peterson
18.1%+451
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes95Caleb
Kilian
17.7%+465
Salvador
Perez
KCNo103Noah
Syndergaard
17.3%+478
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes95Yu
Darvish
17.1%+484
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo97Logan
Webb
17.1%+485
Adam
Duvall
ATLNo97Logan
Webb
17.1%+485
Christian
Walker
ARINo96Yu
Darvish
17.0%+490
Max
Stassi
LAAYes103Kris
Bubic
16.9%+491
Wilmer
Flores
SFYes97Max
Fried
16.8%+497
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Miles
Mikolas
16.7%+498
Rafael
Ortega
CHCYes95JT
Brubaker
16.5%+505
Shohei
Ohtani
LAANo108Kris
Bubic
16.4%+509
Austin
Slater
SFYes97Max
Fried
16.1%+520
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo103Corbin
Burnes
16.0%+523
Bo
Bichette
TORNo106Lance
Lynn
15.7%+535
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Miles
Mikolas
15.4%+550
Matt
Olson
ATLYes100Logan
Webb
15.3%+553
Luke
Voit
SDNo96Zach
Davies
15.1%+560
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYYes94Shane
McClanahan
15.1%+563
Starling
Marte
NYMYes98Trevor
Rogers
14.9%+570
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes98Trevor
Rogers
14.9%+570
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo103Corbin
Burnes
14.7%+579
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo103Noah
Syndergaard
14.7%+579
Ian
Happ
CHCYes95JT
Brubaker
14.7%+581
Manny
Machado
SDNo96Zach
Davies
14.5%+589
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes111Jose
Berrios
14.5%+591
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYNo92Shane
McClanahan
14.4%+594
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo99Josh
Winckowski
14.2%+602
Avisail
Garcia
MIAYes98David
Peterson
14.2%+603
Taylor
Ward
LAAYes103Kris
Bubic
14.1%+609
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Miles
Mikolas
14.0%+612
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes95Zach
Davies
14.0%+613
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo106Lance
Lynn
13.7%+632
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Jose
Berrios
13.7%+632
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Miles
Mikolas
13.4%+647
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo103Noah
Syndergaard
13.3%+650
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYYes94Shane
McClanahan
13.1%+666
Trevor
Story
BOSNo99Alex
Faedo
12.9%+675
Joey
Gallo
NYYNo92Shane
McClanahan
12.8%+680
Garrett
Cooper
MIAYes98David
Peterson
12.8%+681
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Caleb
Kilian
12.7%+687
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes101Corbin
Burnes
12.7%+689
Kyle
Isbel
KCYes108Noah
Syndergaard
12.6%+691
Lewin
Diaz
MIANo95David
Peterson
12.6%+693
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo106Jose
Berrios
12.2%+720
Michael
Chavis
PITNo92Caleb
Kilian
12.1%+725
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes98Trevor
Rogers
12.1%+728
Eric
Hosmer
SDYes95Zach
Davies
12.0%+732
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Miles
Mikolas
11.9%+740
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Alex
Faedo
11.5%+769
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Josh
Winckowski
11.5%+769
Jonathan
Villar
CHCYes95JT
Brubaker
11.3%+783
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo97Logan
Webb
11.3%+785
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo97Logan
Webb
11.3%+785
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo97Logan
Webb
11.3%+785
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes93Alex
Faedo
11.1%+800
Harold
Castro
DETYes93Josh
Winckowski
11.1%+800
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo94Gerrit
Cole
11.0%+810
Miguel
Cabrera
DETNo99Josh
Winckowski
10.8%+828
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Jose
Berrios
10.7%+837
Jason
Heyward
CHCYes95JT
Brubaker
10.6%+842
Pavin
Smith
ARIYes95Yu
Darvish
10.6%+842
Jace
Peterson
MILYes101Miles
Mikolas
10.4%+858
Luis
Urias
MILNo103Miles
Mikolas
10.4%+861
Geraldo
Perdomo
ARIYes95Yu
Darvish
9.9%+912
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo106Lance
Lynn
9.9%+912
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes93Josh
Winckowski
9.7%+931
Franchy
Cordero
BOSYes93Alex
Faedo
9.7%+931
Brendan
Donovan
STLYes101Corbin
Burnes
9.7%+935
Michael
Taylor
KCNo103Noah
Syndergaard
9.6%+938
Whit
Merrifield
KCNo103Noah
Syndergaard
9.6%+938
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo92JT
Brubaker
9.4%+963
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes103Kris
Bubic
9.4%+966
Seby
Zavala
CHWNo106Jose
Berrios
9.1%+1002
Luis
Robert
CHWNo106Jose
Berrios
9.1%+1002
Carson
Kelly
ARINo96Yu
Darvish
9.0%+1006
Jorge
Alfaro
SDNo96Zach
Davies
9.0%+1006
Miguel
Rojas
MIAYes98David
Peterson
9.0%+1014
Mark
Canha
NYMYes98Trevor
Rogers
9.0%+1014
Jarren
Duran
BOSYes93Alex
Faedo
9.0%+1015
Tyler
O'Neill
STLNo103Corbin
Burnes
8.8%+1031
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo103Miles
Mikolas
8.8%+1031
Joc
Pederson
SFNo100Max
Fried
8.8%+1036
Christian
Vazquez
BOSNo99Alex
Faedo
8.5%+1072
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo99Josh
Winckowski
8.5%+1072
David
Peralta
ARIYes95Yu
Darvish
8.4%+1092
Trent
Grisham
SDYes95Zach
Davies
8.4%+1092
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes95Zach
Davies
8.4%+1092
Robbie
Grossman
DETYes93Josh
Winckowski
8.2%+1115
Jon
Berti
MIAYes98David
Peterson
8.2%+1126
Bryan
De La Cruz
MIAYes98David
Peterson
8.2%+1126
Manuel
Margot
TBNo94Gerrit
Cole
8.1%+1129
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes101Corbin
Burnes
8.1%+1141
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo92JT
Brubaker
8.0%+1153
Jose
Trevino
NYYYes94Shane
McClanahan
7.9%+1174
Jeff
McNeil
NYMNo95Trevor
Rogers
7.8%+1188
Jazz
Chisholm
MIANo95David
Peterson
7.8%+1188
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes95Yu
Darvish
7.6%+1212
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo96Zach
Davies
7.5%+1228
Willi
Castro
DETYes93Josh
Winckowski
7.5%+1238
Leury
Garcia
CHWNo106Jose
Berrios
7.4%+1251
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo106Lance
Lynn
7.4%+1251
Brett
Phillips
TBYes92Gerrit
Cole
7.4%+1251
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes92Gerrit
Cole
7.4%+1251
Darin
Ruf
SFYes97Max
Fried
7.3%+1279
Tommy
Edman
STLYes101Corbin
Burnes
7.2%+1282
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMNo95Trevor
Rogers
7.1%+1306
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes95Yu
Darvish
6.8%+1363
Alfonso
Rivas
CHCYes95JT
Brubaker
6.8%+1363
Cal
Mitchell
PITYes95Caleb
Kilian
6.8%+1363
Andrew
Benintendi
KCYes108Noah
Syndergaard
6.8%+1370
Matthew
Duffy
LAAYes103Kris
Bubic
6.8%+1376
Vidal
Brujan
TBYes92Gerrit
Cole
6.6%+1407
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo94Gerrit
Cole
6.6%+1409
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo106Jose
Berrios
6.5%+1428
J.D.
Davis
NYMYes98Trevor
Rogers
6.5%+1445
Tomas
Nido
NYMYes98Trevor
Rogers
6.5%+1445
Thairo
Estrada
SFYes97Max
Fried
6.4%+1460
Gleyber
Torres
NYYYes94Shane
McClanahan
6.2%+1507