FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 6/19/22
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Sandy Alcantara ($10,900)
After a 3.5% salary decrease, Miami's right-hander ranks as Sunday's top overall pitcher with a 36.1 FanDuel point projection and 6.5 expected strikeouts.
While Alcantara has a tough matchup against New York Mets' team with a 21.9% K-rate and a .327 weighted on-base average (wOBA), the 26-year old has performed at a high level throughout this season, recording a 3.57 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating (xFIP) and a 12.8% swinging strike rate in 91.1 innings.
With Coors Field on today's nine-game slate, it may be not necessary to pay up for a pitcher but Alcantara's reduced salary still presents plenty of value with a 3.31 rating.
Luis Severino ($10,000)
Among Sunday's top-salary options, Severino is a slightly cheaper alternative to consider despite his difficult spot versus an intimidating Toronto Blue Jays' lineup with an overall .335 wOBA and a 20.2% K-rate.
In his first year back from Tommy John surgery, the 28-year old has gradually improved in each month this season, progressing from a 3.68 xFIP in his first five starts to a 2.85 mark from May-to-June.
At his second highest salary point this season, Severino stands as Sunday's third ranked pitcher with a 31.5 fantasy expectation and 6.19 strikeouts
Chris Bassitt ($9,300)
In his first opportunity starting in the National League, Bassitt has been in solid form despite occasional control issues (7.5% walk rate), accounting for a 3.70 expected FIP and a 25.5% strikeout rate through 76.1 innings.
Although the Marlins have displayed some patience against right-handers (8.5% walk percentage), the Mets' veteran still has an enticing strikeout spot versus seven expected hitters with K-rates over 21.5% and contact percentages under 77.3%.
As numberFire's second ranked pitcher, Bassit's Sunday expectation includes 35.3 FanDuel points and 6.5 strikeouts in 5.8 projected innings.
Alex Cobb ($7,600)
At his median salary point this season, Cobb is an interesting value option with an elite 28.7% K-rate against a Pittsburgh Pirates' team with a .243 wOBA and a 25.6% strikeout percentage in their last 236 plate appearances.
While his 5.73 Earned Run Average appears shaky, the veteran has overall been extremely unlucky through 37.2 innings when comparing his current .402 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) to his career .295 mark and his unsustainable 52.1% left on-base percentage (71.8% career mark).
Among Sunday's 18 pitchers, numberFire's models currently rank Cobb third among his position in value with a 3.77 rating and fifth overall with a 28.7 fantasy projection.
In baseball's most promising offensive environment, Antonio Senzatela will take the mound against a San Diego lineup projected for an eye-popping 6.8 runs.
While the 27-year old has managed to stay away from hard contact (4.4% barrel rate) with his ground-ball tendencies (50.2% career percentage), Colorado's right-hander does not miss many bats (6.3% swinging strike rate) and often struggles with his fastball (-5.8 runs above average rating).
To best counter Senzatela's glaring weaknesses, fly-ball power hitters from either side of the plate should build the main components of San Diego combinations starting with Luke Voit (14% barrel rate, 39.0% fly-ball percentage), Manny Machado (36.7% fly-ball rate, .362 expected wOBA), and Jake Cronenworth (37.3% fly-ball percentage, .404 expected slugging) while Jurickson Profar (36.5% fly-ball rate, .338 expected wOBA), Trent Grisham (36.9% fly-ball percentage, 6.3% barrel rate), and Eric Hosmer (.400 expected slugging) are secondary stacking candidates.
Despite a 10-run barrage on Saturday night, Colorado's offense appears undervalued with a 5.9 expected run total versus Blake Snell.
In his second season with the Padres, the 29-year old left-hander has regressed when comparing his current 4.12 xFIP to his career 3.72 mark while also allowing a concerning amount of barrels (10.4%) and walks (11.9%)
With clear struggles versus righty bats (career 3.94 expected FIP), Rockies' correlations can start with C.J. Cron (13.5% barrel rate, .352 expected wOBA), Brendan Rodgers (8% barrel rate), and Yonathan Daza (.353 expected wOBA, .425 expected slugging) while Connor Joe (5.2% barrel rate) and Jose Iglesias (.273 expected average) can also be mixed in for value.
In a matchup against Kyle Hendricks, Atlanta's explosive lineup offers several enticing options against a low-strikeout right-hander allowing an increased fly-ball percentage (40.1% to career 32.0%) and barrels (8.3%) for the second straight season.
With pronounced splits against hitters from the left side (5.31 xFIP in 35.1 innings this season), Matt Olson (10.8% barrel rate, .354 expected wOBA) and Michael Harris II (8.8% barrel percentage, .430 expected slugging) stand out first while Ronald Acuna (17.8% barrel rate, .412 expected wOBA), Austin Riley (16.3% barrel percentage, .392 expected wOBA), and Dansby Swanson (11.2% barrel rate, .377 expected wOBA) are in recent ideal batted ball form.