3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 6/17/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Byron Buxton To Hit a Home Run (+275)
With a loaded slate of MLB games, let's jump into some player props to close out the week.
There are a ton of great hitting options on tonight's slate, and Byron Buxton is at the top of my list for home runs tonight. He's one of the best hitters in the league and has a dream match versus Madison Bumgarner.
This season, Bumgarner comes in with a .452 SLG, a .325 wOBA, a 4.52 xFIP, 1.59 HR/9, a 43.0% fly-ball rate, and a 38.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Bumgarner has been one of the more home-run-prone pitchers in recent seasons, so we're looking to target him any time he is on the slate.
Buxton is elite in nearly every aspect and comes in with a 147 wRC+, a .373 wOBA, a .370 ISO, a 40.0% fly-ball rate, and a 45.7% hard-contact rate versus left-hand pitchers this season.
This is truly one of the best matchups on the slate and if I'm thinking Buxton is going to hit a home run, adding Buxton To Record an RBI (+110) makes a ton of sense as well.
Carlos Rodon Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-146)
Carlos Rodon has an exceptionally favorable matchup tonight for his strikeout prop.
Even though this prop has a bit of juice at -146, it's too good of a number at 6.5 to pass up. Rodon comes in with a very strong 30.6% strikeout rate, which is the second-highest of any pitcher in action today, and the fifth-highest in the entire league among qualified pitchers.
He also comes in sporting a 13.1% swinging-strike rate, which is higher than the league average of 11.1%. Rodon has been over this mark in 6 of his 12 starts this season with four of the starts being at nine strikeouts or higher. Two of those were 12-strikeout games.
Rodon is an elite pitcher, and the matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates is one we want to jump on. The Pirates come in with a 24.3% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the third-worst in the league.
Considering how favorable this matchup is and how Rodon can reach for a high strikeout ceiling, adding Rodon 8+ Strikeouts (+142) and Rodon 9+ Strikeouts (+265) is something I have a ton of interest in doing.
Eric Hosmer To Record an RBI (+100)
It's the best hitter's park in the league, it's over 90 degrees, and the wind is blowing out. There's not much more that needs to be said about how good of a spot this is tonight. The over/under is 12.5 runs, which should tell you enough.
When it comes to the Padres and their player props tonight, Eric Hosmer to record an RBI at even money is the spot I'm going.
You might be asking, why not the great Manny Machado or the red-hot Luke Voit? Their RBI props are sitting at -145 and -165, respectively. I'm simply going with even money when all should have their turn.
Hosmer is also having a sneaky great season -- even in this matchup which is lefty versus lefty. This year, Hosmer has a 131 wRC+, a .354 wOBA, and a .418 SLG versus left-handed pitchers. Those numbers are better than what he has versus right-handed pitchers -- a 105 wRC+, a .314 wOBA, and a .387 SLG.
He will be going up against Kyle Freeland, who comes in with a 5.20 xFIP, a .500 SLG, a 44.2% fly-ball rate, and 1.72 HR/9 allowed to left-handed hitters this season.
Give me the even money on a player hitting in the middle of the lineup for a team with a 6.45 implied run total.
Also, give me Hosmer 2+ RBI (+250). It's Coors Field, after all.