FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 6/16/22
A short, five-game slate awaits us in MLB DFS tonight, but that doesn't leave us short on viable pitchers. It's actually leaving us with some underwhelming stack options. How does today's slate break down overall?
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Luis Severino (FanDuel Salary: $10,400) - Finding pitchers to like tonight isn't the issue. It's more about finding stacks to love. That said, Severino is rating out a notch above the other arms for me tonight.
This is despite ranking 7th among the 10 main-slate starters in fly-ball rate allowed (39.5%) and in hard-hit rate allowed (30.1%). He rates 4th in strikeout rate (28.9%) and in SIERA (3.08) and draws a Tampa Bay Rays team that is 18th in active-roster wRC+ (100) and 20th in strikeout rate (22.6%). Against righties, those marks move to 95 and 24.8%, respectively.
Severino is the largest moneyline favorite on the board (-250), as well, and makes for a floor/ceiling option at the top of the salary pool.
Shohei Ohtani ($10,200) - Next on the list in my model is Ohtani, against the Seattle Mariners, a team with an active-roster wRC+ of 112 (10th-best), so it's not a pushover matchup by any means. With that said, Ohtani's path to a ceiling is quite obvious. He ranks second among the main-slate starters in various key metrics including strikeout rate (31.7%), called-strike-plus-whiff rate (31.5%), xFIP (2.83), and SIERA (2.78).
Seattle's active-roster strikeout rate ticks up a percentage point from 21.1% overall to 22.1% against right-handed pitching, and their barrel rate is just 6.6% on the year (23rd) anyway.
Ohtani ultimately ranks second in projected strikeout rate in my model.
The Mets own top-8 marks in strikeout rate (19.6%), wRC+ (+121), and barrel rate (8.6%) overall. However, against lefties, the wRC+ drops to 107, and the strikeout rate ticks up to 20.4%; their ISO of .131 is 24th in the Majors in this split, as well.
Ashby, then, gets a bump there and can use slate-best batted-ball data (he's first in fly-ball rate allowed) and strikeout potential (he's also first in called-strike-plus-whiff rate).
Severino, Ohtani, and Zack Wheeler ($10,600) should take precedent, but Ashby is a viable pivot away from high-salaried arms and will help generate more unique lineup construction on a 10-team slate when we look for stacks.
Corbin is sporting a slate-worst 6.65 ERA (which is still bad even when you use a better metric such as SIERA [4.45] or xFIP [4.33]) and isn't generating strikeouts (17.5%). He is solid at limiting fly-balls (30.6%), his only redeeming quality at the moment.
With a 9.9% barrel rate and a 112 wRC+ overall, this Phillies team should make good on that implied run total.
The only other team in the same tier with the Phillies in my model? The Texas Rangers, a team with a modest 100 wRC+ (18th) and 7.9% barrel rate (16th).
They'll face righty Beau Brieske, who sports a 4.34 ERA but a 4.85 SIERA along with a slate-low 15.3% strikeout rate and a slate-high 42.9% fly-ball rate.
Marcus Semien ($3,200), Corey Seager ($3,200), Adolis Garcia ($3,900), and Kole Calhoun ($2,500) ultimately balance out for a viable top stack in terms of salary that won't leave you too short on cap for a pitcher.
Jalen Beeks will start (he faced seven batters in his last start) and overall has good strikeout potential, but the Rays' bullpen does rank just 19th in SIERA (3.63) and 22nd in strikeout rate (22.7%).
Aaron Judge's salary of $4,600) is hard to get to, but even if you exclude him (and his +295 odds to dong), you can access DJ LeMahieu ($3,300), Anthony Rizzo ($3,600), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,600), Josh Donaldson ($2,700), and/or Gleyber Torres ($2,900) to be a primary or secondary stack.