MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 6/16/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SDMatthew
Swarmer
11.06.0956.9%40.8%26.9%16.2%9.0%
CLEChad
Kuhl
11.56.0456.1%40.0%26.2%15.7%8.7%
COLTriston
McKenzie
11.55.4646.4%30.8%18.6%10.2%5.2%
BOSPaul
Blackburn
9.55.2342.4%27.2%15.8%8.4%4.1%
PHIPatrick
Corbin
9.05.1440.9%25.9%14.8%7.8%3.7%
TORTyler
Wells
8.55.1140.3%25.4%14.5%7.6%3.6%
CHCJoe
Musgrove
11.04.9136.8%22.5%12.4%6.2%2.9%
NYYJalen
Beeks
8.04.7734.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
TEXBeau
Brieske
8.54.5931.3%18.1%9.4%4.5%1.9%
OAKRich
Hill
9.54.2725.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
NYMAaron
Ashby
8.04.2024.7%13.3%6.4%2.8%1.1%
DETMartin
Perez
8.53.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
WSHZack
Wheeler
9.03.8619.3%9.7%4.3%1.7%0.6%
MILTylor
Megill
8.03.8018.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
LAAGeorge
Kirby
7.03.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
SEAShohei
Ohtani
7.03.4313.3%6.0%2.4%0.9%0.3%
BALKevin
Gausman
8.53.3912.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%
TBLuis
Severino
8.03.2310.9%4.6%1.8%0.6%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Zack
Wheeler
WSH6.991.4%82.0%68.9%53.8%38.9%26.1%16.1%
Joe
Musgrove
CHC6.689.2%78.2%63.8%48.1%33.5%21.4%12.7%
Luis
Severino
TB6.589.1%78.1%63.7%48.0%33.3%21.3%12.6%
Shohei
Ohtani
SEA6.588.9%77.7%63.2%47.5%32.9%21.0%12.3%
Kevin
Gausman
BAL6.387.7%75.8%60.7%44.8%30.4%19.0%10.9%
Tylor
Megill
MIL5.275.5%58.5%41.0%26.0%15.0%7.8%3.8%
Aaron
Ashby
NYM5.275.5%58.5%41.0%26.0%15.0%7.8%3.8%
Triston
McKenzie
COL5.175.1%58.0%40.5%25.6%14.6%7.6%3.6%
Patrick
Corbin
PHI5.073.2%55.6%38.1%23.5%13.1%6.7%3.1%
Rich
Hill
OAK4.566.4%47.5%30.4%17.4%9.0%4.2%1.8%
Matthew
Swarmer
SD4.566.3%47.4%30.2%17.3%8.9%4.2%1.8%
Chad
Kuhl
CLE4.464.1%44.9%28.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
Martin
Perez
DET4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
George
Kirby
LAA4.361.7%42.4%25.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
Beau
Brieske
TEX4.259.5%40.0%23.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
Paul
Blackburn
BOS3.852.0%32.6%18.0%8.8%3.9%1.5%0.5%
Tyler
Wells
TOR3.445.0%26.3%13.5%6.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
Jalen
Beeks
NYY2.627.3%12.8%5.2%1.8%0.6%0.2%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Batter Team Platoon? Opp
Pitcher
Proj
HR
HR
Probability
xHR
Odds
Aaron
Judge
NYYYesJalen
Beeks
0.4026.0%+285
Bryce
Harper
PHINoPatrick
Corbin
0.3925.6%+291
Kyle
Schwarber
PHINoPatrick
Corbin
0.3925.6%+291
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYesChad
Kuhl
0.3825.2%+297
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYesLuis
Severino
0.3624.3%+311
Taylor
Ward
LAANoGeorge
Kirby
0.3624.3%+311
Rafael
Devers
BOSYesPaul
Blackburn
0.3523.9%+319
Rhys
Hoskins
PHIYesPatrick
Corbin
0.3523.9%+319
Bo
Bichette
TORNoTyler
Wells
0.3423.4%+327
Jared
Walsh
LAAYesGeorge
Kirby
0.3322.9%+336
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNoBeau
Brieske
0.3021.4%+366
Mike
Trout
LAANoGeorge
Kirby
0.2920.9%+378
George
Springer
TORNoTyler
Wells
0.2920.9%+378
Josh
Naylor
CLEYesChad
Kuhl
0.2920.9%+378
Willy
Adames
MILNoTylor
Megill
0.2820.4%+390
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNoPaul
Blackburn
0.2719.9%+403
Manny
Machado
SDNoMatthew
Swarmer
0.2719.9%+403
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANoShohei
Ohtani
0.2719.9%+403
C.J.
Cron
COLNoTriston
McKenzie
0.2719.9%+403
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYesGeorge
Kirby
0.2719.9%+403
Josh
Donaldson
NYYYesJalen
Beeks
0.2619.3%+418
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNoTyler
Wells
0.2619.3%+418
Corey
Seager
TEXYesBeau
Brieske
0.2518.7%+433
Seth
Brown
OAKNoRich
Hill
0.2518.7%+433
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNoKevin
Gausman
0.2518.7%+433
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYesBeau
Brieske
0.2418.2%+450
Luke
Voit
SDNoMatthew
Swarmer
0.2418.2%+450
Pete
Alonso
NYMYesAaron
Ashby
0.2418.2%+450
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYNoJalen
Beeks
0.2317.6%+469
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYYesJalen
Beeks
0.2317.6%+469
Joey
Gallo
NYYNoJalen
Beeks
0.2317.6%+469
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNoTylor
Megill
0.2317.6%+469
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNoTyler
Wells
0.2217.0%+489
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNoJoe
Musgrove
0.2217.0%+489
Ryan
McMahon
COLYesTriston
McKenzie
0.2116.4%+511
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYesBeau
Brieske
0.2116.4%+511
Max
Stassi
LAANoGeorge
Kirby
0.2015.7%+536
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYesTylor
Megill
0.2015.7%+536
Taylor
Trammell
SEAYesShohei
Ohtani
0.2015.7%+536
Matt
Davidson
OAKYesRich
Hill
0.1915.1%+563
Marcus
Semien
TEXNoBeau
Brieske
0.1915.1%+563
Sean
Murphy
OAKYesRich
Hill
0.1915.1%+563
Eric
Hosmer
SDYesMatthew
Swarmer
0.1814.4%+593
Nick
Castellanos
PHIYesPatrick
Corbin
0.1814.4%+593
Trevor
Story
BOSNoPaul
Blackburn
0.1814.4%+593
Chad
Pinder
OAKYesRich
Hill
0.1814.4%+593
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNoTylor
Megill
0.1814.4%+593
Connor
Joe
COLNoTriston
McKenzie
0.1814.4%+593
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYesShohei
Ohtani
0.1814.4%+593
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYesAaron
Ashby
0.1713.8%+627
Jurickson
Profar
SDYesMatthew
Swarmer
0.1713.8%+627
Anthony
Rendon
LAANoGeorge
Kirby
0.1713.8%+627
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNoPaul
Blackburn
0.1713.8%+627
Willson
Contreras
CHCNoJoe
Musgrove
0.1713.8%+627
Juan
Soto
WSHYesZack
Wheeler
0.1713.8%+627
Christopher
Morel
CHCNoJoe
Musgrove
0.1713.8%+627
Ezequiel
Duran
TEXNoBeau
Brieske
0.1713.8%+627
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNoTylor
Megill
0.1613.1%+665
Rougned
Odor
BALYesKevin
Gausman
0.1613.1%+665
Matt
Chapman
TORNoTyler
Wells
0.1613.1%+665
Luis
Urias
MILNoTylor
Megill
0.1613.1%+665
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNoTriston
McKenzie
0.1613.1%+665
Brandon
Marsh
LAAYesGeorge
Kirby
0.1613.1%+665
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANoShohei
Ohtani
0.1613.1%+665
Christian
Bethancourt
OAKYesRich
Hill
0.1512.4%+709
Jace
Peterson
MILYesTylor
Megill
0.1512.4%+709
J.T.
Realmuto
PHIYesPatrick
Corbin
0.1512.4%+709
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYesAaron
Ashby
0.1512.4%+709
Trey
Mancini
BALNoKevin
Gausman
0.1512.4%+709
Frank
Schwindel
CHCNoJoe
Musgrove
0.1512.4%+709
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYesMatthew
Swarmer
0.1512.4%+709
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNoMatthew
Swarmer
0.1512.4%+709
Robbie
Grossman
DETYesMartin
Perez
0.1411.7%+758
Jonathan
Schoop
DETYesMartin
Perez
0.1411.7%+758
Sam
Huff
TEXNoBeau
Brieske
0.1411.7%+758
Christian
Yelich
MILYesTylor
Megill
0.1310.9%+815
Randal
Grichuk
COLNoTriston
McKenzie
0.1310.9%+815
Javier
Baez
DETYesMartin
Perez
0.1310.9%+815
Josh
Bell
WSHYesZack
Wheeler
0.1310.9%+815
Austin
Meadows
DETNoMartin
Perez
0.1310.9%+815
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYesGeorge
Kirby
0.1310.9%+815
Lane
Thomas
WSHNoZack
Wheeler
0.1310.9%+815
Abraham
Toro
SEAYesShohei
Ohtani
0.1310.9%+815
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYesChad
Kuhl
0.1310.9%+815
Santiago
Espinal
TORNoTyler
Wells
0.1310.9%+815
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYesTriston
McKenzie
0.1210.2%+882
Jose
Iglesias
COLNoTriston
McKenzie
0.1210.2%+882
Christian
Vazquez
BOSNoPaul
Blackburn
0.1210.2%+882
Mark
Canha
NYMYesAaron
Ashby
0.1210.2%+882
Brett
Phillips
TBYesLuis
Severino
0.1210.2%+882
Austin
Hays
BALNoKevin
Gausman
0.1210.2%+882
Harold
Castro
DETNoMartin
Perez
0.1210.2%+882
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNoTyler
Wells
0.1210.2%+882
Tyler
Nevin
BALNoKevin
Gausman
0.1210.2%+882
Starling
Marte
NYMYesAaron
Ashby
0.119.4%+961
Jackie
Bradley
BOSYesPaul
Blackburn
0.119.4%+961
Maikel
Franco
WSHNoZack
Wheeler
0.119.4%+961
Austin
Hedges
CLENoChad
Kuhl
0.119.4%+961
Nomar
Mazara
SDYesMatthew
Swarmer
0.119.4%+961
Francisco
Mejia
TBYesLuis
Severino
0.119.4%+961
Elvis
Andrus
OAKYesRich
Hill
0.108.6%+1056
Didi
Gregorius
PHINoPatrick
Corbin
0.108.6%+1056
Yandy
Diaz
TBNoLuis
Severino
0.108.6%+1056
Ian
Happ
CHCYesJoe
Musgrove
0.108.6%+1056
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYesPaul
Blackburn
0.108.6%+1056
Tomas
Nido
NYMYesAaron
Ashby
0.108.6%+1056
Trent
Grisham
SDYesMatthew
Swarmer
0.108.6%+1056
Randy
Arozarena
TBNoLuis
Severino
0.108.6%+1056
Brian
Serven
COLNoTriston
McKenzie
0.108.6%+1056
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYYesJalen
Beeks
0.097.9%+1173
Miguel
Cabrera
DETYesMartin
Perez
0.097.9%+1173
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNoZack
Wheeler
0.097.9%+1173
J.P.
Crawford
SEAYesShohei
Ohtani
0.097.9%+1173
Omar
Narvaez
MILYesTylor
Megill
0.097.9%+1173
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNoTyler
Wells
0.097.9%+1173
Cedric
Mullins
BALYesKevin
Gausman
0.097.9%+1173
Austin
Nola
SDNoMatthew
Swarmer
0.097.9%+1173
Alec
Bohm
PHIYesPatrick
Corbin
0.097.9%+1173
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYesZack
Wheeler
0.097.9%+1173
Spencer
Torkelson
DETYesMartin
Perez
0.097.9%+1173
Yan
Gomes
CHCNoJoe
Musgrove
0.087.1%+1318
Aaron
Hicks
NYYYesJalen
Beeks
0.087.1%+1318
J.D.
Davis
NYMYesAaron
Ashby
0.087.1%+1318
Jose
Trevino
NYYYesJalen
Beeks
0.087.1%+1318
Ramon
Laureano
OAKYesRich
Hill
0.087.1%+1318
Ty
France
SEANoShohei
Ohtani
0.087.1%+1318
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENoChad
Kuhl
0.087.1%+1318
Kyle
Stowers
BALYesKevin
Gausman
0.087.1%+1318
Amed
Rosario
CLENoChad
Kuhl
0.076.2%+1506
Yairo
Munoz
PHIYesPatrick
Corbin
0.076.2%+1506
Leody
Taveras
TEXYesBeau
Brieske
0.076.2%+1506
Matt
Vierling
PHIYesPatrick
Corbin
0.076.2%+1506
Vidal
Brujan
TBYesLuis
Severino
0.076.2%+1506
Jarren
Duran
BOSYesPaul
Blackburn
0.076.2%+1506