MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 6/9/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CIN | Zach Davies | 10.0 | 5.34 | 44.3% | 28.9% | 17.1% | 9.3% | 4.6% |
ATL | JT Brubaker | 8.5 | 5.16 | 41.2% | 26.2% | 15.1% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
CLE | James Kaprielian | 9.0 | 5.06 | 39.5% | 24.7% | 14.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
SF | Austin Gomber | 8.0 | 4.86 | 35.9% | 21.8% | 11.9% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
KC | Jordan Lyles | 9.5 | 4.79 | 34.7% | 20.8% | 11.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
BAL | Kris Bubic | 9.5 | 4.71 | 33.3% | 19.7% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
ARI | Tyler Mahle | 10.0 | 4.66 | 32.5% | 19.0% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
NYY | Dylan Bundy | 8.0 | 4.62 | 31.8% | 18.5% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
MIA | Stephen Strasburg | 8.5 | 4.54 | 30.4% | 17.4% | 9.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
LAD | Dylan Cease | 8.5 | 4.39 | 27.8% | 15.5% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
LAA | Nick Pivetta | 8.0 | 4.15 | 23.9% | 12.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
CHW | Tyler Anderson | 8.5 | 4.11 | 23.2% | 12.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
WSH | Trevor Rogers | 8.5 | 3.96 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
OAK | Konnor Pilkington | 9.0 | 3.94 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
TB | Miles Mikolas | 7.0 | 3.93 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
MIL | Zach Eflin | 7.0 | 3.88 | 19.6% | 9.9% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
BOS | Shohei Ohtani | 8.0 | 3.85 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
MIN | Gerrit Cole | 8.0 | 3.38 | 12.7% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
PIT | Max Fried | 8.5 | 3.34 | 12.2% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
COL | Logan Webb | 8.0 | 3.14 | 9.9% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
PHI | Corbin Burnes | 7.0 | 3.12 | 9.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
STL | Shane McClanahan | 7.0 | 3.07 | 9.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Corbin Burnes | PHI | 7.7 | 94.8% | 88.1% | 77.9% | 64.7% | 50.3% | 36.4% | 24.6% |
Gerrit Cole | MIN | 7.5 | 94.1% | 86.8% | 75.9% | 62.2% | 47.5% | 33.8% | 22.4% |
Dylan Cease | LAD | 7.0 | 91.6% | 82.2% | 69.3% | 54.3% | 39.4% | 26.4% | 16.4% |
Shohei Ohtani | BOS | 6.7 | 90.4% | 80.2% | 66.5% | 51.1% | 36.3% | 23.8% | 14.4% |
Shane McClanahan | STL | 6.6 | 89.5% | 78.7% | 64.5% | 48.9% | 34.2% | 22.0% | 13.1% |
Max Fried | PIT | 6.4 | 87.7% | 75.9% | 60.9% | 45.0% | 30.5% | 19.1% | 11.0% |
Tyler Mahle | ARI | 6.2 | 86.5% | 74.0% | 58.4% | 42.4% | 28.3% | 17.3% | 9.8% |
Zach Eflin | MIL | 5.9 | 83.8% | 69.9% | 53.5% | 37.4% | 24.0% | 14.1% | 7.6% |
Nick Pivetta | LAA | 5.6 | 81.2% | 66.1% | 49.2% | 33.3% | 20.6% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
Logan Webb | COL | 5.5 | 80.3% | 64.9% | 47.8% | 32.0% | 19.5% | 10.9% | 5.6% |
Tyler Anderson | CHW | 5.3 | 77.3% | 60.9% | 43.5% | 28.1% | 16.5% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
Trevor Rogers | WSH | 5.2 | 76.1% | 59.2% | 41.7% | 26.6% | 15.4% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
Konnor Pilkington | OAK | 4.8 | 70.1% | 51.8% | 34.4% | 20.5% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
Jordan Lyles | KC | 4.7 | 68.2% | 49.6% | 32.3% | 18.9% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
JT Brubaker | ATL | 4.6 | 68.1% | 49.4% | 32.1% | 18.7% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
Stephen Strasburg | MIA | 4.6 | 66.6% | 47.7% | 30.6% | 17.5% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
James Kaprielian | CLE | 4.2 | 60.3% | 40.8% | 24.5% | 13.1% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
Dylan Bundy | NYY | 4.1 | 58.4% | 38.9% | 22.9% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
Austin Gomber | SF | 4.0 | 56.7% | 37.1% | 21.5% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
Zach Davies | CIN | 4.0 | 56.3% | 36.7% | 21.2% | 10.9% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
Miles Mikolas | TB | 4.0 | 55.7% | 36.1% | 20.7% | 10.6% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
Kris Bubic | BAL | 3.7 | 51.0% | 31.7% | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Batter | Team | Platoon? | Opp Pitcher |
Proj HR |
HR Probability |
xHR Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Trout | LAA | No | Nick Pivetta | 0.43 | 27.2% | +268 |
Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | No | Dylan Bundy | 0.42 | 26.8% | +273 |
Joey Gallo | NYY | Yes | Dylan Bundy | 0.42 | 26.8% | +273 |
Aaron Judge | NYY | No | Dylan Bundy | 0.38 | 25.2% | +297 |
Jared Walsh | LAA | Yes | Nick Pivetta | 0.32 | 22.4% | +345 |
C.J. Cron | COL | No | Logan Webb | 0.30 | 21.4% | +366 |
Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Yes | Corbin Burnes | 0.30 | 21.4% | +366 |
Mike Yastrzemski | SF | No | Austin Gomber | 0.30 | 21.4% | +366 |
Anthony Rizzo | NYY | Yes | Dylan Bundy | 0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
Jordan Luplow | ARI | No | Tyler Mahle | 0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
Austin Hays | BAL | Yes | Kris Bubic | 0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
Ronald Acuna | ATL | No | JT Brubaker | 0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
J.D. Martinez | BOS | No | Shohei Ohtani | 0.28 | 20.4% | +390 |
Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | James Kaprielian | 0.28 | 20.4% | +390 |
Rougned Odor | BAL | No | Kris Bubic | 0.28 | 20.4% | +390 |
Byron Buxton | MIN | No | Gerrit Cole | 0.28 | 20.4% | +390 |
Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | Yes | Kris Bubic | 0.28 | 20.4% | +390 |
Mookie Betts | LAD | No | Dylan Cease | 0.27 | 19.9% | +403 |
Salvador Perez | KC | No | Jordan Lyles | 0.26 | 19.3% | +418 |
Travis d'Arnaud | ATL | No | JT Brubaker | 0.26 | 19.3% | +418 |
Jorge Soler | MIA | No | Stephen Strasburg | 0.25 | 18.7% | +433 |
Ketel Marte | ARI | Yes | Tyler Mahle | 0.25 | 18.7% | +433 |
Willy Adames | MIL | No | Zach Eflin | 0.25 | 18.7% | +433 |
Bryce Harper | PHI | Yes | Corbin Burnes | 0.24 | 18.2% | +450 |
Evan Longoria | SF | Yes | Austin Gomber | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
Trea Turner | LAD | No | Dylan Cease | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
Rafael Devers | BOS | Yes | Shohei Ohtani | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
Rhys Hoskins | PHI | No | Corbin Burnes | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
Cedric Mullins | BAL | Yes | Kris Bubic | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
Lane Thomas | WSH | Yes | Trevor Rogers | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
Dansby Swanson | ATL | No | JT Brubaker | 0.22 | 17.0% | +489 |
Anthony Santander | BAL | Yes | Kris Bubic | 0.22 | 17.0% | +489 |
Austin Riley | ATL | No | JT Brubaker | 0.22 | 17.0% | +489 |
Will Smith | LAD | No | Dylan Cease | 0.22 | 17.0% | +489 |
Marcell Ozuna | ATL | No | JT Brubaker | 0.21 | 16.4% | +511 |
Carlos Correa | MIN | No | Gerrit Cole | 0.21 | 16.4% | +511 |
Brett Phillips | TB | Yes | Miles Mikolas | 0.21 | 16.4% | +511 |
Shohei Ohtani | LAA | Yes | Nick Pivetta | 0.21 | 16.4% | +511 |
Jo Adell | LAA | No | Nick Pivetta | 0.21 | 16.4% | +511 |
TJ Friedl | CIN | Yes | Zach Davies | 0.21 | 16.4% | +511 |
Freddie Freeman | LAD | Yes | Dylan Cease | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
Nelson Cruz | WSH | Yes | Trevor Rogers | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
Mike Zunino | TB | No | Miles Mikolas | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
Matt Olson | ATL | Yes | JT Brubaker | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
Jose Trevino | NYY | No | Dylan Bundy | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
Rowdy Tellez | MIL | Yes | Zach Eflin | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
Daulton Varsho | ARI | Yes | Tyler Mahle | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
Andrew McCutchen | MIL | No | Zach Eflin | 0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
Brandon Crawford | SF | No | Austin Gomber | 0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
Joey Votto | CIN | Yes | Zach Davies | 0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
Wilmer Flores | SF | Yes | Austin Gomber | 0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
Jesus Aguilar | MIA | No | Stephen Strasburg | 0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
Curt Casali | SF | Yes | Austin Gomber | 0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
Trevor Story | BOS | No | Shohei Ohtani | 0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
Luis Urias | MIL | No | Zach Eflin | 0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
Jake Burger | CHW | Yes | Tyler Anderson | 0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
Xander Bogaerts | BOS | No | Shohei Ohtani | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
David Peralta | ARI | Yes | Tyler Mahle | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
Joc Pederson | SF | No | Austin Gomber | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
Trey Mancini | BAL | Yes | Kris Bubic | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
Hunter Dozier | KC | No | Jordan Lyles | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
Brendan Rodgers | COL | No | Logan Webb | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
Andrew Vaughn | CHW | Yes | Tyler Anderson | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
MJ Melendez | KC | Yes | Jordan Lyles | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
Josh Donaldson | NYY | No | Dylan Bundy | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
Brandon Drury | CIN | No | Zach Davies | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
Amed Rosario | CLE | No | James Kaprielian | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
Ozzie Albies | ATL | Yes | JT Brubaker | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
Juan Soto | WSH | No | Trevor Rogers | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
Josh Naylor | CLE | Yes | James Kaprielian | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
Sean Murphy | OAK | Yes | Konnor Pilkington | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
Luis Robert | CHW | Yes | Tyler Anderson | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
Tyler Stephenson | CIN | No | Zach Davies | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
Brandon Marsh | LAA | Yes | Nick Pivetta | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
Jed Lowrie | OAK | Yes | Konnor Pilkington | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
Max Stassi | LAA | No | Nick Pivetta | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
Jose Abreu | CHW | Yes | Tyler Anderson | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
Josh Bell | WSH | Yes | Trevor Rogers | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
Ji-Man Choi | TB | Yes | Miles Mikolas | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
Colin Moran | CIN | Yes | Zach Davies | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
Jacob Stallings | MIA | No | Stephen Strasburg | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
Chad Pinder | OAK | Yes | Konnor Pilkington | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
Kyle Farmer | CIN | No | Zach Davies | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
Ramon Urias | BAL | Yes | Kris Bubic | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
Yadiel Hernandez | WSH | No | Trevor Rogers | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
Trevor Larnach | MIN | Yes | Gerrit Cole | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | No | Jordan Lyles | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
Elvis Andrus | OAK | Yes | Konnor Pilkington | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
A.J. Pollock | CHW | Yes | Tyler Anderson | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
Tommy Pham | CIN | No | Zach Davies | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
Max Muncy | LAD | Yes | Dylan Cease | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
Austin Hedges | CLE | No | James Kaprielian | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
Hunter Renfroe | MIL | No | Zach Eflin | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
Cody Bellinger | LAD | Yes | Dylan Cease | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
Connor Joe | COL | No | Logan Webb | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
Michael Chavis | PIT | Yes | Max Fried | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
Andres Gimenez | CLE | Yes | James Kaprielian | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
Juan Yepez | STL | Yes | Shane McClanahan | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
DJ LeMahieu | NYY | No | Dylan Bundy | 0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
Paul Goldschmidt | STL | Yes | Shane McClanahan | 0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
Yasmani Grandal | CHW | Yes | Tyler Anderson | 0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
Matt Davidson | OAK | Yes | Konnor Pilkington | 0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
Nick Castellanos | PHI | No | Corbin Burnes | 0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
Christian Arroyo | BOS | No | Shohei Ohtani | 0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
Tyrone Taylor | MIL | No | Zach Eflin | 0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
Nolan Arenado | STL | Yes | Shane McClanahan | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
Tommy La Stella | SF | No | Austin Gomber | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
Adam Duvall | ATL | No | JT Brubaker | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
Austin Barnes | LAD | No | Dylan Cease | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
Gary Sanchez | MIN | No | Gerrit Cole | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
Victor Caratini | MIL | Yes | Zach Eflin | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
Randy Arozarena | TB | No | Miles Mikolas | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
Jazz Chisholm | MIA | Yes | Stephen Strasburg | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
Emmanuel Rivera | KC | No | Jordan Lyles | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
Albert Pujols | STL | Yes | Shane McClanahan | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
Charlie Blackmon | COL | Yes | Logan Webb | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
Jose Iglesias | COL | No | Logan Webb | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
Justin Turner | LAD | No | Dylan Cease | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
Jorge Polanco | MIN | Yes | Gerrit Cole | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
Michael Taylor | KC | No | Jordan Lyles | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
Maikel Franco | WSH | Yes | Trevor Rogers | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
Garrett Cooper | MIA | No | Stephen Strasburg | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
Tyler O'Neill | STL | Yes | Shane McClanahan | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | Max Fried | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
Tucupita Marcano | PIT | No | Max Fried | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
Alek Thomas | ARI | Yes | Tyler Mahle | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
Elias Diaz | COL | No | Logan Webb | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
Matt Reynolds | CIN | No | Zach Davies | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
Franchy Cordero | BOS | Yes | Shohei Ohtani | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
Harrison Bader | STL | Yes | Shane McClanahan | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
Danny Mendick | CHW | Yes | Tyler Anderson | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
Jorge Mateo | BAL | Yes | Kris Bubic | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
Luis Garcia | WSH | Yes | Trevor Rogers | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
Adley Rutschman | BAL | Yes | Kris Bubic | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
Luke Williams | MIA | No | Stephen Strasburg | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
Vidal Brujan | TB | Yes | Miles Mikolas | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
Avisail Garcia | MIA | No | Stephen Strasburg | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
Didi Gregorius | PHI | Yes | Corbin Burnes | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
Christian Yelich | MIL | Yes | Zach Eflin | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
Kevin Kiermaier | TB | Yes | Miles Mikolas | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
Randal Grichuk | COL | No | Logan Webb | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
Gio Urshela | MIN | No | Gerrit Cole | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
Max Kepler | MIN | Yes | Gerrit Cole | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
Whit Merrifield | KC | No | Jordan Lyles | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
Andrew Benintendi | KC | Yes | Jordan Lyles | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
Tyler Wade | LAA | Yes | Nick Pivetta | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
Jon Berti | MIA | No | Stephen Strasburg | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
Yu Chang | PIT | Yes | Max Fried | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
Alec Bohm | PHI | No | Corbin Burnes | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
Jace Peterson | MIL | Yes | Zach Eflin | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
Christian Walker | ARI | No | Tyler Mahle | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
Manuel Margot | TB | No | Miles Mikolas | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
Yandy Diaz | TB | No | Miles Mikolas | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
Andrew Velazquez | LAA | Yes | Nick Pivetta | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
Myles Straw | CLE | No | James Kaprielian | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
Tommy Edman | STL | Yes | Shane McClanahan | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
Josh Rojas | ARI | Yes | Tyler Mahle | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
Ke'Bryan Hayes | PIT | Yes | Max Fried | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
Owen Miller | CLE | No | James Kaprielian | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
Kevin Smith | OAK | Yes | Konnor Pilkington | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
Jack Suwinski | PIT | No | Max Fried | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
Michael Harris II | ATL | Yes | JT Brubaker | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
Josh Harrison | CHW | Yes | Tyler Anderson | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
Aaron Hicks | NYY | Yes | Dylan Bundy | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
Cesar Hernandez | WSH | Yes | Trevor Rogers | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
Adam Engel | CHW | Yes | Tyler Anderson | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
Ramon Laureano | OAK | Yes | Konnor Pilkington | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
Pavin Smith | ARI | Yes | Tyler Mahle | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
Geraldo Perdomo | ARI | Yes | Tyler Mahle | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
Taylor Walls | TB | Yes | Miles Mikolas | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
Edmundo Sosa | STL | Yes | Shane McClanahan | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
Luis Gonzalez | SF | Yes | Austin Gomber | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
Oscar Gonzalez | CLE | No | James Kaprielian | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
Travis Swaggerty | PIT | No | Max Fried | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |