MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/7/22
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Oakland Moneyline (+205): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Oakland +1.5 (+100): 1-Star Rating Our of 5
The Oakland Athletics are big road underdogs tonight for their bout versus the Atlanta Braves. Oakland should be underdogs -Atlanta is better at nearly every facet of the game. But our model thinks the A's have a better chance to win than their +205 moneyline price implies.
Oakland will be up against Kyle Wright. One of the breakout pitchers in the season's first few weeks, Wright hasn't been able to maintain his torrid start. After posting a 37.0% strikeout rate and 2.26 xFIP through April, Wright recorded a 22.0% strikeout rate and 3.84 xFIP in May. His single-game swinging-strike rate has been at 9.9% or lower in two of his past three starts.
The A's will counter with Cole Irvin. Irvin struggles to get whiffs, but he's managed to limit damage all season long by holding hitters to a 28.9% hard-hit rate. Across his last six starts, which is a stretch of 34 innings, he's permitted just eight earned runs (2.12 ERA) and has allowed more than two earned runs in just one outing.
The value is on the Oakland side, according to our model. While we think the Braves win by a score of 5.29-4.29, we give Oakland a 37.0% chance to win. Their +205 moneyline implies win odds of just 32.8%. We also give the A's a 54.1% chance to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs.
Over 8.0 (-106): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Verlander's 2.23 ERA would be a career-best mark, but he hasn't been as lights out as that ERA suggests. His strikeout rate (25.3%) and swinging-strike rate (10.8%) are good-not-great numbers, and he's surrendering a 45.4% fly-ball rate, leading to 1.25 jacks per nine.
The Seattle Mariners offense has gotten plenty of looks at JV this year. This will be their fourth time facing him, and they've performed better with each time, culminating in knocking around Verlander for six earned runs and four homers the last time they saw him (May 27th). Seattle has been pretty solid against righties this year overall, ranking 11th in wOBA (.318) in the split.
We don't need Seattle to go nuts against Verlander. We just need them to have a decent amount of success, because Houston's offense should do damage against Chris Flexen.
Flexen is more or less repeating his blah numbers from 2021, registering a 4.71 SIERA and 16.7% strikeout rate. He's giving up 1.46 homers per nine thanks to a 44.1% fly-ball rate. This is his fourth time going up against Houston, and despite fanning just 11 in 18 innings, he's limited the Astros to only five earned runs in the three starts thanks to some favorable BABIP luck. He'll need that good fortune again today to keep Houston in check.
We have Houston winning by a margin of 4.99-4.40. That's 9.39 total runs, and we forecast the over to cash 57.5% of the time.