FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 6/7/22
This should be a fun slate all around with 12 games going on Tuesday night, and we have a healthy selection of both pitchers and stacks. This should also be a far less stressful night for weather compared to Monday.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Tarik Skubal ($10,400): There are some notable names atop the pitching list today, and when factoring in both individual upside and matchups, three stand out between Skubal, Carlos Rodon, and Kyle Wright. All of them come in with strikeout rates of 27% or better, and they're all facing below-average offenses.
But of that trio, I'm giving Skubal the slight edge as the overall package. Note that as of this writing, there's rain in the forecast for his game, but it's still expected to play.
One of the lone bright spots for a struggling Tigers team, Skubal has quietly put together a stellar campaign, rocking a 2.97 SIERA, 27.0% strikeout rate, and 4.4% walk rate. That low walk rate has helped him pitch deep into games on a regular basis, and he's now logged six or seven innings in six of his last eight outings while earning the quality start bonus in all six.
His workload has also increased lately, as he's thrown 100 or more pitches in three of the last four, and that lone exception was due to an early exit after being hit by a line drive.
This is a plus matchup for Skubal versus the Pirates team that's incredibly thin on experience due to injuries, and it's not like this was a powerhouse offense to begin with. It's safe to say this isn't a lineup filled with household names, and Pittsburgh is displaying just a 3.37 implied total.
Carlos Rodon ($9,900): Given the way Rodon has performed lately, it's hard to have the same level of confidence in him that we had earlier in the season. But his best start of the season came against the Rockies at Oracle Park in early May (58 FanDuel points), so maybe he can find some of that same success tonight in a rematch.
Colorado will once again have to face Rodon away from Coors Field, and as is always the case, the Rockies simply aren't the same team when they hit the road. Their active roster has just an 86 wRC+ in away games, and as a result, the Rockies have one of the slate's lowest implied totals (3.28), which should give us increased confidence in Rodon.
Despite his underwhelming results lately, the left-hander still has a potent 3.25 SIERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, and 13.3% swinging-strike rate over his 10 starts. There doesn't seem to be any signs of fatigue or injury, either, as Rodon hasn't seen any significant dips in velocity, and he's still regularly flirting with 100 pitches on a near-nightly basis.
However, walks have been an issue all season (9.1% rate), and he's issued multiple free passes eight times. The good news is that Colorado is a bottom-third team in walk rate (7.8%), which could make things easier for Rodon.
Between Rodon's recent play and control issues, he comes with a little more risk tonight, but he still leads the slate in strikeout rate and has as much upside as anyone.
Garrett Whitlock ($7,000): The ceilings of Skubal, Rodon, and Wright makes me reluctant to drop into the value tier too much tonight, and that's not even getting into guys like Alek Manoah or Justin Verlander.
But if you're looking to go nuts with your bats in some GPP lineups, Whitlock remains an intriguing yet perplexing option.
Despite producing encouraging peripheral numbers, strict pitch counts have limited Whitlock's FanDuel scores, and he's yet to go past 84 pitches in a game this season. He's also coming off a weird start against the Reds where he blanked them across six frames without a single strikeout or walk.
Even with the lack of punchouts in that last start, Whitlock has posted a 3.40 SIERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, 12.1% swinging-strike rate, and 6.1% walk rate. He needs a lot to go right to make the most of his lesser workload, but he did produce a season-best nine strikeouts over five innings when he faced the Angels last month.
Well, it just so happens he's facing those same Angels again, and this time it's one that's slumping in the worst way.
On Monday, the Halos just allowed a complete-game shutout at the hands of Michael Wacha of all people, and their losing streak is up to a dozen games. And in spite of their early-season success, the Angels have the highest strikeout rate among active rosters (25.8%).
Irvin outdid his underlying numbers in 2021, but it's at a whole new extreme this year, with his 2.96 ERA nowhere close to his 4.58 SIERA. While he deserves credit for a 5.8% walk rate, a 14.8% strikeout rate and 43.9% ground-ball rate ought to be leading to more damage than he's sustained to this point.
This is an especially difficult spot for the southpaw, too, as the Braves are loaded with power righties, and as per usual, you can pretty much stack anyone in the lineup, including lefty Matt Olson ($3,600). Even a struggling Adam Duvall ($2,900) could be coming around after back-to-back multi-hit games, and Travis d'Arnaud ($3,000) continues to be a solid value play.
Boston Red Sox
In addition to the Braves, the Blue Jays, Astros, and Yankees all have high implied totals in appealing matchups, and I'm guessing this is where most people will look to first for stacks. I give Atlanta the top spot, but you know any of these teams can take down a GPP on any given night.
Instead, let's take a look at some other teams that could draw less popularity. I don't expect the Boston Red Sox to completely fly under the radar, but they may sit behind that first group in a late game out west against Reid Detmers.
As Detmer's no-hitter fades in the rearview mirror, his meh numbers could slowly be catching up to him. He's now sitting on a 4.65 SIERA, 17.4% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, and 36.2% ground-ball rate. While a .194 BABIP has kept his ERA from going completely wild, the dingers are starting to pile up at 1.40 per nine innings.
Boston couldn't get much going yesterday, but this looks like a prime spot to get rolling again. Enrique Hernandez ($3,000) ought to be leading off with a lefty on the mound, and J.D. Martinez ($3,700), Xander Bogaerts ($4,100), and Trevor Story ($4,200) are the usual top Sox righties.
Detmers curiously has a 12.8% strikeout rate in lefty-lefty matchups, so this may not be a bad opportunity for Rafael Devers ($4,000), as well.
Those are a lot of high salaries, though, so if you can stomach it, Bobby Dalbec ($2,000) is a possibility if he starts. Unsurprisingly, Dalbec has performed much better with the platoon advantage in his young career, and he should have an easier time making contact against a low-strikeout arm.
Los Angeles Dodgers
It's a little weird to think of the Los Angeles Dodgers as being contrarian, but with all these other offenses in better spots, I don't see them drawing the same popularity against someone like Michael Kopech.
Kopech has been getting the job done this season, but his 2.20 ERA doesn't line up with a 4.58 SIERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, and 12.8% walk rate. He's gotten a whole bunch of luck going his way through a .189 BABIP and 3.4% homer-to-fly-ball rate, and that last mark is particularly notable when you consider he's got a whopping 51.3% fly-ball rate.
While the young right-hander is plenty talented, all those walks and fly balls could be a recipe for disaster against the Dodgers.
Kopech is looking particularly susceptible to regression against left-handed batters (5.26 xFIP in the split), which plays right into the hands of Freddie Freeman ($3,700) and Cody Bellinger ($2,900), and Gavin Lux ($2,400) could take advantage, too.
Additionally, Kopech's actually producing just a 21.5% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate versus righties, so L.A.'s star righties aren't in a bad spot, either. There's also actually a fair bit of value in the middle of the lineup with the salaries of Will Smith ($3,100), Justin Turner ($2,900), and Chris Taylor ($3,000).