3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/7/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Yordan Alvarez To Hit a Home Run (+330)
Yordan Alvarez is one of the best hitters in the league and has a great matchup for his home run prop.
The Houston Astros are carrying a strong 4.81 implied run total tonight as they are at home and up against Chris Flexen of the Seattle Mariners. This season, Flexen is allowing a .393 SLG, a 4.44 xFIP, 1.21 HR/9, a 38.8% fly-ball rate, and has a low 17.2% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters. With rather uninspiring numbers against the power in the Astros' lineup, he could be in for a rough outing.
We turn to Alvarez, who is in the top 96th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate, according to Baseball Savant. He is scorching the ball this year, and that is shown with his numbers versus right-handed pitchers. He comes in with 221 wRC+, a .410 ISO, a .471 wOBA, a 44.9% hard-contact rate, a 35.7% fly-ball rate, and a 40.0% HR/FB ratio.
This is extremely straightforward for Alvarez, who is in a spot to crush the ball tonight.
Tarik Skubal Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-118)
Tarik Skubal has been consistent this season, so we're looking to his strikeout prop tonight.
With a 27.0% strikeout rate, Skubal has been one of the better pitchers in the league this season and has shown that off recently. He has posted five strikeouts or more in six straight starts with at least six strikeouts in three of those starts. Skubal is right at his prop of 5.5 strikeouts but the matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates should help him push towards the over.
This season, the Pirates have a 23.3% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the 10th worst in the league. We've also seen Skubal reach 100 pitches in three of his last four starts, meaning he has a long leash to be out there and pick up plenty of strikeouts.
Everything seems to be going in his favor. Considering he has two starts where he posted 9 and 11 strikeouts, it's reasonable to add his alternate lines of Skubal 7+ Strikeouts (+176) and Skubal 8+ Strikeouts (+340).
Willson Contreras To Record an RBI (+150)
The Chicago Cubs have a 4.23 implied run total and a good matchup tonight.
They are in Baltimore against Kyle Bradish, a rookie pitcher with only 33.0 innings pitched this season. It's a small sample size, but it's all we have to go on. In this time, Bradish is struggling against right-handed hitters to the tune of a .498 wOBA, a .721 SLG, a 5.15 xFIP, 3.86 HR/9, a 42.6% fly-ball rate, and a 44.4% hard-contact rate.
It's a plus matchup for the right-handed hitters on the Cubs, which means we are looking at Willson Contreras. He comes in with a 135 wRC+, a .161 ISO, a .368 wOBA, and a 52.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
The Cubs clearly have a matchup to pour in runs, and Contreras should be involved with that. I'll also add Contreras 2+ RBI (+550) since this matchup is too good to pass up.