MLB

3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Monday 6/6/22

Austan Kas  —  @AustanKas Jun 6th, 2022
Alejandro Kirk has been scorching hot, and he's a low-salary way to get exposure to a Jays offense that has the slate's top implied total. Which other value plays make sense for Monday's slate?

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.

Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.

Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?

Hunter Greene, P, Reds ($7,300)

Watch the weather for this one (it doesn't look super promising), but if things clear up, Hunter Greene could have a big night in a date with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Across the last 30 days, Arizona carries the second-highest strikeout rate (24.7%), which adds to the upside that Greene already brings to the table.

The young Cincinnati Reds' flamethrower sports a 29.1% strikeout rate and 13.4% swinging-strike rate. He's had single-game swinging-strike rates of 20.5% and 18.8% over his last two outings, but those starts epitomize the issue with Greene -- he gets whiffs but also gives up loud contact (51.5% fly-ball rate on the year). In those two starts, he punched out 14 in 8 2/3 frames but surrendered 9 earned runs and 3 taters.

Greene is volatile, but his ceiling makes him a viable value play on this slate. When he keeps the ball in the yard, he can post a big number, and he's got outputs of 37 and 50 FanDuel points over his last four starts.

Alejandro Kirk, C, Blue Jays ($2,800)

The Toronto Blue Jays can be a nightmare for lefties, and they'll see one today in Daniel Lynch.

Lynch holds a 12.4% swinging-strike rate this year and is a youngster with some promise, but he's been mauled by righties. For his career, Lynch has allowed a .366 wOBA, 37.2% hard-hit rate and 42.0% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters. Facing a Toronto lineup that could be entirely right-handed, Lynch has a tall task in front of him, and the Jays' slate-best 5.26 implied total will ensure that they're a popular stack.

Alejandro Kirk is a modest-salaried way to get a piece of the Jays, and he's been on fire. He mashed his way to .424 wOBA in May, and he's at a .517 wOBA in the early days of June. He's donged in two straight games and has four jacks over his last five games.

For the season, Kirk has a .377 wOBA against southpaws, and we project him to score 13.9 FanDuel points, rating him as the second-best point-per-dollar bat.

Matt Chapman ($3,000) is another economical way to get in on Toronto. He put up a .341 wOBA and 50.4% fly-ball rate last year with the platoon advantage.

Matt Duffy, 1B/2B/3B, Angels ($2,200)

The Los Angeles Angels are on the stacking radar in a home date with Michael Wacha, who has struck out just 16.8% of hitters this season and gave up 1.83 homers per nine across 2019-2021.

Matt Duffy hit leadoff yesterday against a right-hander. If that holds true today, he's easy to love at this salary. But even if he's slotted into a worse spot in the lineup, he's a nice way to get a piece of an Angels offense that has a 4.67 implied total, the third-highest of the night.

Duffy is swinging a hot bat, posting a .418 wOBA over his last nine games, and his multi-position eligibility is useful when you're trying to make the puzzle pieces fit as you build your lineups.

We have Duffy projected for 10.7 FanDuel points and rank him as the fourth-best point-per-dollar hitter.