3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 6/6/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
George Springer To Hit a Home Run (+330)/Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+310)
The Toronto Blue Jays have a favorable matchup tonight and could be posting plenty of runs.
With a slate-high 5.28 implied total, the Blue Jays are expected to push across some runs tonight versus the Kansas City Royals. They will be going up against Daniel Lynch, who is really struggling this season versus right-handed hitters, so that's who we're going to be targeting. Both George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are in an equally good spot, and I can't decide between them, so they both need to be mentioned.
This season versus righties, Lynch is allowing a .343 wOBA, .437 SLG, 4.77 xFIP, 1.14 HR/9, a 45.5% fly-ball rate, and 35.0% hard-contact rate. Yikes. He now has to take on a righty-dominant Blue Jays lineup that has plenty of power.
We turn to Springer, who is carrying a 208 wRC+, .310 ISO, .461 wOBA, 41.7% hard-contact rate, and 37.5% fly-ball rate in the split.
Guerrero has some lower numbers overall but has only 30 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers this season. Last season, he had a 156 wRC+, .247 ISO, 36.1% hard-contact rate, and 30.6% HR/FB ratio versus southpaws. It's a plus matchup for both of them, and the entire offense is in a great spot.
Carlos Carrasco Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-102)
At only 4.5 strikeouts, the over on Carlos Carrasco's prop is worth considering.
Carrasco has been solid this season for the New York Mets and comes in with five strikeouts or more in eight of his 11 starts. Overall, he's carrying a 21.4% strikeout rate along with a 12.8% swinging-strike rate, the latter of which is the most interesting. The league average for swinging-strike rate is 11.1%, and Carrasco is above that but doesn't have a massive strikeout rate. He's also in the 94th percentile for Chase Rate, according to Baseball Savant. There are some good underlying metrics for Carrasco, just not an overwhelming amount of strikeouts.
He's going up against the San Diego Padres, who have a 22.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 15th in the league. It's a middle-of-the-road matchup for punchouts for Carrasco, but he's consistently been over this mark and has good metrics that are pointing him in the right direction.
A sprinkle on Carrasco 6+ Strikeouts (+220) is also worth considering.
Corey Seager To Record an RBI (+130)
The Texas Rangers have a solid 4.46 implied run total tonight and are a nice spot to look for player props.
The Rangers will be going up against Cal Quantrill, a pitcher we don't need to fear and actually want to be actively targeting whenever he is on the slate. Quantrill is holding a 5.64 xFIP, 18.5% strikeout rate, 15.2% walk rate, .351 SLG, and 49.2% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters this season. Not being able to strike out hitters, walking too many guys, and allowing fly balls is a very dangerous mix.
Corey Seager has been good but not amazing versus right-handed pitchers this season. I'm still hopeful due to the numbers being a bit lower than his career averages, giving him some room to improve. A .144 ISO, 43.0% fly-ball rate, 38.3% hard-contact rate, and 17.2% strikeout rate is a mixed bag. The fly-balls are great, but he isn't offering a ton of power overall.
It mostly comes down to the potential for the Rangers' lineup overall today -- which can put Seager in a good spot -- rather than his specific matchup. Essentially, I'm expecting them to score some runs and for Seager to get involved.
I'll also look to Seager 2+ RBI (+450).