MLB Betting Guide: Friday 6/3/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Padres Moneyline (+138): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model sees some value on the Padres.
Musgrove is dealing this season, boasting a 3.21 SIERA, 25.3% strikeout rate, 11.9% swinging-strike rate, and 4.8% walk rate. He's permitted one earned run across his last two starts (13 frames) and has punched out 13 in that time. While the Brewers' offense has good pop, they also own the fifth-highest strikeout rate (23.9%).
Burnes' numbers are ridiculous -- 2.53 SIERA, 31.8% strikeout rate, 17.3% swinging-strike rate, and 4.5% walk rate. Whew. He's also been hot of late, fanning 16 over his past two outings (13 innings) while surrendering one earned run in that span. The only blemish in his profile is dingers as he's allowed 1.11 per nine this year, including 1.69 per nine at home.
When those two leave the game, the bullpens can shine. San Diego's 'pen is sixth in xFIP while Milwaukee's is fifth.
It's no wonder the total is a lowly 6.5 runs.
While our model sees value on the over, projecting it to hit 62.7% of the time, I'm more into backing San Diego to win. We give the Padres win odds of 44.1%, and the +138 moneyline price implies win odds of 42.0%. That's not a big difference, but it's something. Taking the Padres to win is a one-star bet.
Over 11.0 (-110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Even by Coors' standards, things have been a little wild lately. Over the last two days, there have been three games at Coors Field (one doubleheader), and here are the run totals in those contests: 15, 25, and 19.
Both of these offenses are swinging it well. Over the past 14 days, Atlanta sits fourth in wOBA (.359) while Colorado is 10th (.330). The Rockies have scored at least five runs in four of their past five games. Atlanta is averaging 8.7 runs per night across their last three games.
Chad Kuhl is going for the Rox. Kuhl hasn't been awful this season, but he's got just an 18.8% strikeout rate and has allowed at least 1.46 homer per nine for three straight seasons prior to this one. He's probably not going to have much success against the red-hot Braves, and once he's out of the game, he'll turn things over to what is likely an exhausted Rockies 'pen that has had to cover a ton of outs the past two days. We project Atlanta to plate 6.92 runs.
Atlanta is turning to Max Fried. He's clearly a quality pitcher, but as a guy who has never posted big strikeout numbers, Fried might be in trouble at Coors. Fried has just a 22.9% strikeout rate this season after a 23.7% clip in 2021. Facing a Rockies lineup with righties such as C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, Brendan Rodgers and Connor Joe, Fried has his work cut out for him tonight. We peg the Rox to score 5.18 runs.
In total, we project there to be 12.10 runs. We think the over cashes 53.9% of the time and mark it as a two-star wager.