FanDuel Pitching Primer: Thursday 6/2/22
In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate where they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Which pitchers should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Salary Play
Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
vs. San Francisco Giants
FanDuel Salary: $11,000
After closing the 2021 season on an absolutely incredible run, Sandy Alcantara wasn't able to replicate that absolutely dominant second half straight away in 2022. But he's caught fire of late.
Alcantara really turned things up a notch in the month of May. Across 42 1/3 innings pitched, the righty sported a dominant .251 wOBA and 26.4% strikeout rate. He's allowed one, zero, one and one earned runs over his past four starts.
Now, he will certainly have his hands full with a San Francisco Giants offense that is fifth-best in team wOBA on the year. But San Francisco's 3.24 implied total is the slate's lowest.
We project Alcantara for 35.2 FanDuel points, 3.7 more than anyone else.
Value Play
Alex Wood, San Francisco Giants
at Miami Marlins
FanDuel Salary: $7,400
On the other side of that game, southpaw Alex Wood takes the mound for Giants.
While San Fran's offense sports the fifth-best wOBA, that's a far cry from the offense of the Miami Marlins, which clocks in as the league's worst against southpaws. Their marks of a 78 wRC+, .273 wOBA, and 29.7% strikeout rate are all league-worst clips in the split.
That's pretty darn good news for Wood.
Wood's 3-4 record and 4.81 ERA are misleading. It's important to remember that he has been a bit unlucky so far this season. His 3.12 xFIP is far lower than his ERA, and his 16.8% K-BB% rate and 1.05 HR/9 are more-than-supportable marks.
Miami's 3.76 implied total is the third-lowest on the slate, and we project Wood for 26.5 FanDuel points, the third-most. He's easy to get behind at this salary.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
