MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 5/25/22
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Oakland Moneyline (+154): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The A's certainly have a difficult matchup this afternoon against Robbie Ray. The Mariners' southpaw can be devastating when he's on. But he does give up a lot of fly-balls (44.2% rate last year and 43.1% clip this year) and isn't immune to issuing too many walks (8.9% rate this season). His 25.8% strikeout rate is nice, but it's down a good chunk from his 32.1% strikeout rate a campaign ago. His average fastball velocity is also down 1.1 MPH from last year.
The Athletics will give the ball to Paul Blackburn. In the midst of a breakout year, Blackburn is looking like a much-improved hurler. He finished 2021 with a 4.71 SIERA and 14.9% strikeout rate. Those marks are at 3.28 and 20.7%, respectively, this season. Time will tell how legit Blackburn's fast start is, but he has seen a 1.1 MPH increase in average fastball velocity and is generating gobs of grounders (51.2% rate). His gains seem pretty real so far.
While our numbers point to a Mariners win by a score of 4.25-4.10, we think the A's have a better shot than their +154 moneyline implies. The +154 number implies win odds of 39.4%. We hand Oakland win odds of 45.9% and rate taking the Athletics to win outright as a two-star bet.
Over 7.5 (-112): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Wells looked pretty good as a rookie last season, pitching to a 3.37 SIERA and 29.0% strikeout rate across 57 innings. It has been a much different story in 2022. He's struggled to a 17.0% strikeout rate and 4.32 SIERA in 32 2/3 frames, and his average fastball velocity is down 1.4 MPH. For his career, Wells has allowed 1.41 homers per nine.
We have the Yanks plating 5.53 runs today, so if New York's offense does its thing, we don't need much from the Baltimore offense to get to the over.
The O's are facing Sears. Tonight will be Sears' first start in The Show, although he's pitched two career innings out of the 'pen. Sears' minor-league numbers are pretty great -- including a 38.5% strikeout rate in a small sample of 21 2/3 innings in Triple-A this year -- but this is obviously a step up. We project the O's to push across 4.42 runs.
So, in all, we project 9.95 runs to be scored -- more than two runs over the listed line. We forecast the over to win out 68.3% of the time, and it's our best bet of the day.