3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 5/25/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Shohei Ohtani To Hit a Home Run (+315)
With a great matchup, the Los Angeles Angels could hit multiple home runs tonight.
A 4.75 implied run total is what the Angels are boasting tonight, putting them as the second-highest team on the slate.
They are going up against Glenn Otto from the Texas Rangers, a pitcher we should be actively looking to attack via player props tonight. This season, Otto is allowing a 5.35 xFIP, 1.13 HR/9, a .330 wOBA, and a 39.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. With the power in the Angels' lineup, those are some rough numbers to be sporting and could lead to plenty of runs.
We turn to Shohei Ohtani, who comes in with a 130 wRC+, a .211 ISO, a .346 wOBA, a 37.5% fly-ball rate, and a 20.0% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. It's a prime matchup for the reigning MVP and his home run potential.
Rich Hill Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Next up is Rich Hill and the under on 3.5 strikeouts tonight.
With a bit of plus money, I'm going with the under for Hill's strikeout prop for a few reasons. First off, he's just not a big strikeout pitcher in any capacity. He's holding an 18.3% strikeout rate, which is the lowest of his career since 2010.
He's going up against the Chicago White Sox, who have a 22.2% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers (14th in MLB). They are right at the league average and don't strike out a ton, meaning this isn't a solid matchup.
What the White Sox do have versus left-handed pitchers is a ton of power. Versus left-handed pitchers this season, they come in with a .167 team ISO (seventh-highest in the league), a 126 wRC+ (second-highest in the league), and a 15.1% HR/FB ratio (fourth-highest).
That type of power could post some runs quickly and run Hill out of the game, hitting the under easily.
Aaron Judge To Record an RBI (+125)
The New York Yankees are another team with plenty of power and a solid 4.14 implied run total.
The power-hitting Aaron Judge has a strong matchup against Tyler Wells, and we could see a lopsided affair tonight. Wells hasn't been in the majors too long, so if we look to his career numbers versus right-handed hitters, he's allowing a 4.78 xFIP, 1.96 HR/9, a .440 SLG, and a 56.8% fly-ball rate. That is an extremely dangerous fly-ball rate to be carrying into Yankee Stadium, presenting plenty of scoring opportunities for the Yankees.
Judge is crushing the ball this season and comes in with a 235 wRC+, a .491 wOBA, a .398 ISO, a 40.5% fly-ball rate, and a 45.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
It's a near-perfect match for Judge's power given the struggles that Wells has versus right-handed hitters.
Of course, feel free to add on Judge to Record 2+ RBIs at +390.