3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 5/20/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Aaron Judge To Hit a Home Run (+290)
With a loaded slate of games, we're going to the league leader in home runs, Aaron Judge.
There are a ton of great hitters on tonight's 12-game slate, but Judge is at the top of my list. I'll also look at a few other players for their home run props including, Alex Bregman (+385), Byron Buxton (+250), and George Springer (+330).
Judge is going up against Dallas Keuchel, a pitcher we've been attacking with righty power bats for a few seasons. This year, Keuchel is allowing a .359 wOBA, .444 SLG, 4.49 xFIP, and 1.29 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. All of that is perfect for Judge, who comes in with a 185 wRC+, .378 ISO, .421 wOBA, 40.9% fly-ball rate, and a massive 54.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season.
It's an ideal matchup for Judge to add another home run to his league-leading total.
Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Sean Manaea is off to a great start this season and we're looking to his strikeout prop tonight.
That prop is sitting at 5.5, and I'm going with the over at -130. I don't love the juice on it, but I'll circle back on that in a minute.
Manaea comes in with a 28.7% strikeout rate this season, which is the highest of his career, along with a 13.4% swinging-strike rate, another career-high. This has led him to rack up six strikeouts or more in six of his seven starts, with three of those starts being at seven strikeouts or more.
He's on the hill against the San Francisco Giants, who come in with a 22.3% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is 15th in the league. It's a good matchup for him, and he's pushing the strikeouts up this season, so I'm very excited about this spot.
As mentioned, I don't love the juice on this, so to try and grab more value, I'll look to his Alt Strikeouts props with 7+ strikeouts at +162 and 8+ strikeouts at +320.
Mookie Betts To Record an RBI (+125)
With one of the deepest lineups in the league, the Dodgers are going to be a popular option tonight whether you are looking for betting options or DFS.
They are up against Ranger Suarez, who is allowing a .367 wOBA, .474 SLG, 4.60 xFIP, 1.59 HR/9, and 35.5% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters this season. That's not a great line to be carrying into a matchup against the Dodgers, who could blow past that implied run total in a hurry.
Mookie Betts is one of the best hitters in the league, and we're getting a plus money prop for him. A 133 wRC+, .208 ISO, .355 wOBA, and 37.8% fly-ball rate put him in a great spot against Suarez. Betts has no RBIs over his last two games but had seven RBIs in the five games prior.
If you want to sprinkle on 2+ RBIs at +460, there's nothing wrong with that, either.