MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/19/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Yordan Alvarez To Hit a Home Run (+320)
We have a small three-game main slate but a few power hitters to pick from.
The Houston Astros have a slate-high 4.91 implied run total and could easily blow past that tonight. They are going up against Glenn Otto, who is allowing 1.29 HR/9 this season to left-handed hitters, along with a 4.65 xFIP, a 35.0% hard-contact rate, and a 20.0 HR/FB ratio. He's also not a heavy strikeout pitcher with a 21.2% rate in this spilt, so I'm not overly worried about him shutting down this lineup.
We turn to Yordan Alvarez, who comes in with a 211 wRC+, a .454 wOBA, a massive .443 ISO, a 40.9% fly-ball rate, and a 43.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Alvarez is one of the elite hitters in the game, and with that type of power, he can knock one over the fence easily tonight.
Rafael Devers To Record an RBI (+145)
The odds on RBI props continue to intrigue me.
Getting plus money on any prop is great, especially when we can get it for a hitter such as Rafael Devers. I get that RBIs can be somewhat fluky or random as with most things in baseball. And a player can go several games without getting an RBI and still be hitting well. There are a ton of variables, but between the consistency that Devers brings to the plate and the plus money, he's a great option tonight.
Devers will be up against George Kirby, who made his MLB debut earlier this season and only has 10.0 innings pitched. There's essentially nothing we can draw from that sample size, so I'll lean on the numbers from Devers. He comes in with a 180 wRC+, a .420 wOBA, a .296 ISO, a low 13.9% strikeout rate, and a 37.8% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. The Boston Red Sox have a 4.39 implied run total, and with Devers hitting in the middle of their lineup, he should have plenty of chances to grab an RBI or 2+ RBIs at +500.