MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 5/18/22
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 9.0 (-106): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Garcia is a good pitcher who has been solid in his young career, boasting a 3.85 SIERA. The two blemishes in his statistical profile are his fly-ball rate and his numbers against lefties. Garcia's fly-ball rate is at 51.2% for 2022 and 42.2% for his career. That's led to 1.34 dingers per nine this year. And for his career, Garcia has been tagged for a .342 wOBA by lefties, which could haunt him tonight against Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, and the other left-handed sticks of the Boston Red Sox.
Pivetta isn't nearly as good as Garcia is. While Pivetta has posted intriguing peripherals at times in his career, he's never put it all together. Since the start of 2021, he's walked 9.8% of hitters and surrendered a 42.2% fly-ball rate. He's allowed 1.41 homers per nine since the start of 2020, and he gave up an eye-popping 2.09 jacks per nine at Fenway last season. Coming up against a Houston Astros lineup that just went crazy last night, Pivetta has a tall task in front of him.
After these two starters depart, the offenses can keep doing work against the bullpens as both rank in the bottom 11 in xFIP so far this season.
Our model projects Houston to win 5.44-4.85 -- a total of 10.29 runs. We give the over a 54.6% chance to win out.
Over 7.5 (-110): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
This is very similar to the over we rolled with yesterday in Shane McClanahan's start against the Detroit Tigers, and that one cashed for us. We were counting on the offense of the Tampa Bay Rays to do the heavy lifting, and they came through.
Today, we're banking on the New York Yankees' offense to deliver the goods, because Gerrit Cole is probably going to mow through the Baltimore Orioles. Thankfully, the Yanks can have a field day against Jordan Lyles.
Lyles owns a 4.62 SIERA and 18.9% strikeout rate since the start of last year, and he's been hammered for 1.77 jacks per nine in that span. While Camden Yards hasn't been playing quite as hitter-friendly this year due to the new dimensions, there's still a very good chance New York puts up some crooked numbers against Lyles. Earlier this year, Lyles coughed up three jacks and six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Yankees in the Bronx.
In all, our algorithm projects New York to push across 5.39 runs, which means we should need only a little bit from the O's to get this to the over.
You don't need me to tell you this, but Cole is likely going to overpower Baltimore today. However, baseball is baseball, and Cole has allowed at least two earned runs in four of his seven starts this year. It's not like he's a lock to blank the O's, a team that has plated at least two runs in eight straight home games.
Plus, even if Cole does pitch a shutout for as long as he's in, there's a chance the Yankees' bats could get eight runs by themselves -- which is exactly what happened with the Rays yesterday.
We project New York to win by a score of 5.39-3.63. That's 9.02 total runs, and we think the over cashes 62.2% of the time.