MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 5/17/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 6.5 (-122): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Let's just get this out of the way at the jump -- Shane McClanahan is probably going to smash the Detroit Tigers. But there's room for that to happen and the over to cash, mostly due to the offense of the Tampa Bay Rays likely rocking Beau Brieske.
Brieske has just 21 MLB innings on his resume, and it's not going well. He owns a 12.6% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate this season. Counting his big-league innings, the Tigers' righty has tossed only 31 frames above Double-A and has been pressed into action due to injuries to other Detroit hurlers. He doesn't appear to be ready for The Show, and our model project the Rays to plate 5.26 runs tonight.
If Tampa Bay's offense does what our projections think they'll do, we barely need anything at all from the Tigers' offense to get this over 6.5 runs. That's good because McClanahan will probably overwhelm them. But, baseball is weird, and the opposing team has scored at least two runs -- not necessarily earned runs -- on McClanahan in five of his past six outings. We project Detroit to push across 3.40 runs.
So, in total, we have 8.66 runs being scored in this one -- well over the 6.5-run line. We think the over cashes 70.2% of the time and rate it as the day's top bet.
Texas Moneyline (+110): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 8.5 (-114): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model sees this game as close to a 50-50 affair, which creates some value on the underdog Texas Rangers. We also back the over.
Texas is facing Reid Detmers in his first start after a no-hitter. This is weird to say, but Detmers didn't pitch all that great in his no-no, punching out just two with a 7.4% swinging-strike rate and 4.66 xFIP in the outing. That 4.66 xFIP was actually his second-worst single-game xFIP of the year. Baseball, man. In short, Detmers shouldn't scare us off Texas, and we project the Rangers' offense to score 4.97 runs.
The Rangers are giving the ball to Taylor Hearn, who is transitioning to a role as a full-time starter. He's got some intriguing numbers, including a 24.6% strikeout rate and 3.93 SIERA. On the negative, he hasn't topped 90 pitches yet this year, and Hearn will be turning things over to a Texas' bullpen that sits 11th-worst in reliever xFIP (3.90). That leads to us projecting the Los Angeles Angels to score 5.29 runs.
With the total, we have 10.26 runs being scored and give the over a 64.8% chance to win out. It's the stronger of the two bets we like in this clash. We also see a sliver of value on Texas. Their +110 moneyline price implies win odds of 47.6%, but we give them a 48.9% chance to win.