MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 5/16/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
SFAntonio
Senzatela
12.06.5063.1%47.3%32.7%20.8%12.3%
COLAlex
Wood
12.05.5047.1%31.4%19.1%10.6%5.4%
LADMadison
Bumgarner
8.55.1140.3%25.4%14.5%7.6%3.6%
BOSJake
Odorizzi
9.04.7333.7%19.9%10.7%5.2%2.3%
TORChris
Flexen
8.54.6532.3%18.9%9.9%4.8%2.1%
CHCDillon
Peters
8.54.6331.9%18.6%9.8%4.7%2.0%
MIAAaron
Sanchez
8.04.6231.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
TBAlex
Faedo
7.54.3326.8%14.8%7.3%3.3%1.3%
HOUGarrett
Whitlock
9.04.2725.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
MILIan
Anderson
8.04.2725.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
NYYKyle
Bradish
7.54.2625.7%13.9%6.8%3.0%1.2%
LAAJon
Gray
8.04.2325.2%13.6%6.6%2.9%1.2%
NYMMiles
Mikolas
8.04.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
STLTrevor
Williams
8.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
MINZach
Logue
7.53.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
PITWade
Miley
8.53.8719.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
SEAYusei
Kikuchi
8.53.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
TEXNoah
Syndergaard
8.03.7718.0%8.8%3.9%1.5%0.5%
ATLFreddy
Peralta
8.03.7317.4%8.4%3.7%1.4%0.5%
OAKChris
Archer
7.53.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
ARITony
Gonsolin
8.53.3912.8%5.7%2.3%0.8%0.3%
WSHSandy
Alcantara
8.03.3812.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
BALLuis
Severino
7.53.2411.0%4.7%1.8%0.6%0.2%
DETCorey
Kluber
7.53.1710.2%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.2%
CHWBrad
Keller
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
KCLucas
Giolito
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Freddy
Peralta
ATL6.891.0%81.2%67.8%52.6%37.7%25.0%15.4%
Sandy
Alcantara
WSH6.185.6%72.6%56.7%40.7%26.7%16.1%9.0%
Lucas
Giolito
KC5.983.8%69.9%53.5%37.4%24.0%14.1%7.6%
Corey
Kluber
DET5.377.0%60.4%43.0%27.7%16.2%8.6%4.2%
Luis
Severino
BAL5.275.9%59.1%41.6%26.5%15.3%8.0%3.9%
Yusei
Kikuchi
SEA5.175.0%57.9%40.3%25.4%14.5%7.6%3.6%
Brad
Keller
CHW5.074.1%56.6%39.1%24.4%13.8%7.1%3.3%
Tony
Gonsolin
ARI4.871.0%52.9%35.4%21.3%11.6%5.8%2.6%
Alex
Wood
COL4.769.3%50.9%33.5%19.8%10.6%5.1%2.3%
Zach
Logue
MIN4.768.6%50.0%32.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
Miles
Mikolas
NYM4.463.2%43.9%27.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
Noah
Syndergaard
TEX4.463.2%43.9%27.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
Ian
Anderson
MIL4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
Jon
Gray
LAA4.362.6%43.3%26.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
Wade
Miley
PIT4.260.6%41.2%24.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
Alex
Faedo
TB4.057.0%37.5%21.8%11.3%5.2%2.2%0.8%
Chris
Flexen
TOR4.056.5%36.9%21.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
Kyle
Bradish
NYY3.954.5%35.0%19.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
Madison
Bumgarner
LAD3.853.5%34.0%19.0%9.5%4.2%1.7%0.6%
Jake
Odorizzi
BOS3.648.7%29.5%15.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
Antonio
Senzatela
SF3.647.8%28.8%15.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
Chris
Archer
OAK3.547.2%28.2%14.8%6.8%2.8%1.1%0.4%
Trevor
Williams
STL3.546.3%27.5%14.2%6.5%2.7%1.0%0.3%
Aaron
Sanchez
MIA3.444.4%25.8%13.1%5.9%2.3%0.8%0.3%
Dillon
Peters
CHC2.830.6%15.1%6.4%2.4%0.8%0.2%0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all home run props at FanDuel Sportsbook here.

Batter Team Opp PA Proj
HR
HR
Probability
xHR
Odds
Joey GalloNYYBAL4.260.4929.2%+242
Byron BuxtonMINOAK4.800.3925.6%+291
Aaron JudgeNYYBAL4.810.3523.8%+319
Giancarlo StantonNYYBAL4.590.3121.9%+356
C.J. CronCOLSF4.270.3021.4%+367
Jorge PolancoMINOAK4.690.3021.4%+367
Shohei OhtaniLAATEX4.600.2920.9%+378
Anthony RizzoNYYBAL4.700.2820.4%+391
Mike TroutLAATEX4.710.2820.4%+391
Teoscar HernandezTORSEA4.270.2820.4%+391
Brandon LoweTBDET4.670.2820.4%+391
Patrick WisdomCHCPIT4.120.2820.4%+391
Brandon BeltSFCOL4.810.2719.8%+404
Yordan AlvarezHOUBOS4.460.2719.8%+404
Enrique HernandezBOSHOU4.610.2619.3%+418
Ronald AcunaATLMIL4.710.2619.3%+418
Matt ChapmanTORSEA4.050.2518.7%+434
Salvador PerezKCCHW4.360.2418.2%+451
Max MuncyLADARI4.330.2418.2%+451
Ramon LaureanoOAKMIN4.190.2418.2%+451
Eric HaaseDETTB3.990.2418.2%+451
Will SmithLADARI4.440.2418.2%+451
Sean MurphyOAKMIN4.300.2418.2%+451
Luis RobertCHWKC4.540.2418.2%+451
Mike ZuninoTBDET3.780.2317.6%+469
Brad MillerTEXLAA4.580.2317.6%+469
Jesus AguilarMIAWSH4.500.2317.6%+469
Francisco LindorNYMSTL4.430.2317.6%+469
Corey SeagerTEXLAA4.350.2317.6%+469
Jared WalshLAATEX4.380.2317.6%+469
Austin RileyATLMIL4.480.2317.6%+469
Alfonso RivasCHCPIT4.230.2317.6%+469
Eugenio SuarezSEATOR4.270.2217.0%+490
Hunter RenfroeMILATL4.000.2217.0%+490
Pete AlonsoNYMSTL4.320.2217.0%+490
Gavin SheetsCHWKC4.430.2217.0%+490
Seiya SuzukiCHCPIT4.340.2217.0%+490
Nelson CruzWSHMIA4.410.2116.3%+512
Xander BogaertsBOSHOU4.280.2116.3%+512
Jorge SolerMIAWSH4.390.2116.3%+512
Christian WalkerARILAD4.350.2116.3%+512
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORSEA4.380.2116.3%+512
Jazz ChisholmMIAWSH4.620.2116.3%+512
Chas McCormickHOUBOS4.120.2116.3%+512
Paul GoldschmidtSTLNYM4.660.2015.7%+536
George SpringerTORSEA4.610.2015.7%+536
Joc PedersonSFCOL4.590.2015.7%+536
Jesse WinkerSEATOR4.040.2015.7%+536
Yoan MoncadaCHWKC4.770.2015.7%+536
Rafael DeversBOSHOU4.500.2015.7%+536
Adolis GarciaTEXLAA4.130.2015.7%+536
Taylor WardLAATEX4.820.2015.7%+536
Ty FranceSEATOR4.600.2015.7%+536
Brendan RodgersCOLSF3.930.2015.7%+536
Freddie FreemanLADARI4.550.1814.4%+594
Jose AltuveHOUBOS4.790.1814.4%+594
Rafael OrtegaCHCPIT4.670.1814.4%+594
Robbie GrossmanDETTB4.660.1814.4%+594
Javier BaezDETTB4.550.1814.4%+594
Ben GamelPITCHC4.230.1814.4%+594
Willson ContrerasCHCPIT4.560.1814.4%+594
Chad PinderOAKMIN4.410.1814.4%+594
Cody BellingerLADARI4.110.1814.4%+594
Dylan MooreSEATOR3.930.1814.4%+594
Randal GrichukCOLSF4.380.1713.7%+628
Trea TurnerLADARI4.670.1713.7%+628
Brett PhillipsTBDET3.890.1713.7%+628
Willy AdamesMILATL4.440.1713.7%+628
Kyle TuckerHOUBOS4.340.1713.7%+628
Brandon CrawfordSFCOL4.250.1613.1%+666
Christian YelichMILATL4.330.1613.1%+666
Marcus SemienTEXLAA4.470.1613.1%+666
Jose AbreuCHWKC4.660.1613.1%+666
Chris TaylorLADARI4.000.1613.1%+666
Gio UrshelaMINOAK4.470.1613.1%+666
Hunter DozierKCCHW4.140.1613.1%+666
Ian HappCHCPIT4.450.1613.1%+666
Garrett CooperMIAWSH4.280.1613.1%+666
Ryan McMahonCOLSF4.150.1613.1%+666
Brian AndersonMIAWSH3.950.1613.1%+666
Juan SotoWSHMIA4.640.1613.1%+666
Danny JansenTORSEA3.830.1613.1%+666
Rowdy TellezMILATL4.220.1613.1%+666
Bryan ReynoldsPITCHC4.670.1613.1%+666
Mike YastrzemskiSFCOL4.480.1613.1%+666
Edwin RiosLADARI3.890.1613.1%+666
Yoshitomo TsutsugoPITCHC4.450.1613.1%+666
Wander FrancoTBDET4.560.1613.1%+666
Charlie BlackmonCOLSF4.490.1512.4%+709
DJ LeMahieuNYYBAL4.920.1512.4%+709
Evan LongoriaSFCOL4.700.1512.4%+709
Justin TurnerLADARI4.220.1512.4%+709
Kole CalhounTEXLAA4.020.1512.4%+709
Avisail GarciaMIAWSH4.170.1512.4%+709
Nolan ArenadoSTLNYM4.550.1512.4%+709
Max KeplerMINOAK4.360.1512.4%+709
Josh BellWSHMIA4.530.1512.4%+709
Yandy DiazTBDET4.450.1512.4%+709
Luis TorrensSEATOR4.160.1512.4%+709
Lourdes GurrielTORSEA4.160.1512.4%+709
Connor JoeCOLSF4.600.1512.4%+709
Randy ArozarenaTBDET4.000.1512.4%+709
Eduardo EscobarNYMSTL3.990.1411.6%+759
Josh DonaldsonNYYBAL4.480.1411.6%+759
A.J. PollockCHWKC4.320.1411.6%+759
Adam DuvallATLMIL4.040.1411.6%+759
Gary SanchezMINOAK4.580.1411.6%+759
Alex BregmanHOUBOS4.570.1411.6%+759
Yulieski GurrielHOUBOS4.230.1411.6%+759
Jesus SanchezMIAWSH4.060.1411.6%+759
Juan YepezSTLNYM4.440.1411.6%+759
Diego CastilloPITCHC4.340.1411.6%+759
J.D. MartinezBOSHOU4.390.1310.9%+816
Anthony RendonLAATEX4.490.1310.9%+816
Christian BethancourtOAKMIN4.080.1310.9%+816
Kevin KiermaierTBDET4.110.1310.9%+816
Ji-Man ChoiTBDET4.340.1310.9%+816
Dansby SwansonATLMIL3.820.1310.9%+816
Franchy CorderoBOSHOU3.950.1310.9%+816
Anthony SantanderBALNYY4.340.1310.9%+816
Luis UriasMILATL4.110.1310.9%+816
LaMonte Wade JrSFCOL4.920.1310.9%+816
Travis DemeritteATLMIL3.930.1310.9%+816
Sheldon NeuseOAKMIN4.520.1310.9%+816
Jonah HeimTEXLAA4.240.1310.9%+816
Chris OwingsBALNYY3.680.1210.2%+883
Jonathan SchoopDETTB4.220.1210.2%+883
Christian VazquezBOSHOU3.840.1210.2%+883
Andrew KnappPITCHC4.010.1210.2%+883
Ozzie AlbiesATLMIL4.150.1210.2%+883
Chad WallachLAATEX4.050.1210.2%+883
Michael PerezPITCHC3.890.1210.2%+883
Ryan O'HearnKCCHW4.250.1210.2%+883
Michael ChavisPITCHC4.560.1210.2%+883
Thairo EstradaSFCOL4.370.1210.2%+883
Harold RamirezTBDET4.230.1210.2%+883
Dylan CarlsonSTLNYM4.100.1210.2%+883
Daulton VarshoARILAD4.680.1210.2%+883
Eli WhiteTEXLAA3.690.1210.2%+883
Gilberto CelestinoMINOAK3.910.1210.2%+883
Brandon MarshLAATEX4.270.1210.2%+883
Spencer TorkelsonDETTB3.880.1210.2%+883
Bobby Witt Jr.KCCHW4.030.1210.2%+883
Brendan DonovanSTLNYM3.990.1210.2%+883
Miguel CabreraDETTB4.440.119.4%+962
Yadier MolinaSTLNYM4.210.119.4%+962
Cesar HernandezWSHMIA4.750.119.4%+962
Kolten WongMILATL4.550.119.4%+962
Rougned OdorBALNYY4.120.119.4%+962
Michael TaylorKCCHW3.810.119.4%+962
Ketel MarteARILAD4.130.119.4%+962
Tim AndersonCHWKC4.880.119.4%+962
J.P. CrawfordSEATOR4.380.119.4%+962
Brandon NimmoNYMSTL4.650.119.4%+962
Andrew BenintendiKCCHW4.470.119.4%+962
Nathaniel LoweTEXLAA3.910.119.4%+962
Anthony BemboomBALNYY3.790.119.4%+962
Bo BichetteTORSEA4.500.119.4%+962
Cal RaleighSEATOR3.820.119.4%+962
Julio RodriguezSEATOR4.490.119.4%+962
Royce LewisMINOAK4.140.119.4%+962
Alek ThomasARILAD4.020.119.4%+962
Aaron HicksNYYBAL4.370.108.6%+1058
Jace PetersonMILATL3.660.108.6%+1058
Trevor StoryBOSHOU4.060.108.6%+1058
Trey ManciniBALNYY4.460.108.6%+1058
Matt OlsonATLMIL4.590.108.6%+1058
Dominic SmithNYMSTL4.100.108.6%+1058
Tommy EdmanSTLNYM4.770.108.6%+1058
Sam HilliardCOLSF3.820.108.6%+1058
Ke'Bryan HayesPITCHC4.780.108.6%+1058
Tyler NevinBALNYY4.010.108.6%+1058
Jeremy PenaHOUBOS4.010.108.6%+1058
Alcides EscobarWSHMIA3.970.097.8%+1174
Martin MaldonadoHOUBOS3.900.097.8%+1174
Travis d'ArnaudATLMIL4.260.097.8%+1174
Jackie BradleyBOSHOU3.730.097.8%+1174
Jonathan VillarCHCPIT3.900.097.8%+1174
Nick AhmedARILAD3.910.097.8%+1174
Tony KempOAKMIN4.630.097.8%+1174
Jeimer CandelarioDETTB4.330.097.8%+1174
Tyler WadeLAATEX4.160.097.8%+1174
Jose TrevinoNYYBAL4.030.097.8%+1174
Cedric MullinsBALNYY4.570.097.8%+1174
Frank SchwindelCHCPIT4.010.097.8%+1174
Willi CastroDETTB4.100.097.8%+1174
Luis GonzalezSFCOL4.140.097.8%+1174
Joey BartSFCOL4.030.097.8%+1174
Jose MirandaMINOAK4.250.097.8%+1174
Jose HerreraARILAD3.790.097.8%+1174
Lorenzo CainMILATL3.780.087.0%+1320
Marcell OzunaATLMIL4.370.087.0%+1320
Ildemaro VargasCHCPIT3.790.087.0%+1320
Alex VerdugoBOSHOU4.170.087.0%+1320
Derek HillDETTB3.770.087.0%+1320
Kevin SmithOAKMIN3.970.087.0%+1320
Jack SuwinskiPITCHC4.120.087.0%+1320
MJ MelendezKCCHW3.920.087.0%+1320
Starling MarteNYMSTL4.540.076.2%+1507
David PeraltaARILAD4.460.076.2%+1507
Maikel FrancoWSHMIA4.190.076.2%+1507
Elias DiazCOLSF4.040.076.2%+1507
Omar NarvaezMILATL3.890.076.2%+1507
Lane ThomasWSHMIA4.080.076.2%+1507
Nick SolakTEXLAA3.800.076.2%+1507
Gavin LuxLADARI3.780.076.2%+1507
Ryan McKennaBALNYY3.900.076.2%+1507