MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/12/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Nick Castellanos To Hit a Home Run (+380)
With plenty of power and a great matchup, Nick Castellanos is the spot to look for a home run tonight.
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers, who will have Tyler Anderson on the mound. Anderson is certainly a pitcher we can look to attack via some home run props due to his fly-ball tendencies.
Last season, Anderson allowed a 45.3% fly-ball rate, 4.57 xFIP, and 1.71 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. The home runs are less pronounced this season, but he is still allowing a 50.0% fly-ball rate in the split.
This should be a good spot for Castellanos, who ended last season with a 142 wRC+, .285 ISO, 38.4% fly-ball rate, and 45.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. This is an ideal matchup for Castellanos to hit a drive into deep left field and cash in on his home run prop.
Luis Robert To Record an RBI (+125)
The Chicago White Sox have a 4.27 implied run total tonight and are in a spot to look at some of their player props.
Luis Gil is the starter for the New York Yankees, and given his inexperience, we can look to attack him tonight. This will be the first start of the season for Gil, who made his MLB debut last year and only started six games for a total of 29.1 innings. We're not dealing with a big sample size, but Gil has some issues that could be exploited tonight by the White Sox.
Last season, Gil had a 31.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters, which is super solid, but he also had a 13.9% walk rate. Gil also allowed 1.50 HR/9, a 4.45 xFIP, and a 50.0% fly-ball rate to righty hitters. Those are some dangerous numbers to be sporting against a right-dominant White Sox lineup.
Luis Robert should be in the middle of the order for Chicago and is in a good spot for an RBI. Last year, Robert had a 135 wRC+, .179 ISO, 34.9% fly-ball rate, and 33.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers, which should allow him to grab an RBI at plus money.