MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 5/12/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Over 7.5 (-105): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Oakland Moneyline (+100): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics wrap up their series this afternoon, and there's some value on the A's and the over, per our model.
Pitcher James Kaprielian is going for the A's. Kaprielian had the best season of his career in 2021, finishing with a 4.22 SIERA, 24.5% strikeout rate and 10.9% swinging-strike rate. He has, however, had a gopher-ball issue, permitting 1.52 dingers per nine in his career. The Tigers are a fairly soft matchup, though.
Beau Brieske has just 15 MLB innings to his name, and it hasn't gone well. Counting his big-league time, he's thrown only 25 frames above Double-A, and nothing in his statistical profile suggests he's ready for The Show. That's reflected in his 5.79 SIERA and 11.1% strikeout rate in his 15 MLB innings. Even though Oakland's offense is hot trash, they should have some success today.
Our algorithm projects the A's to win by a score of 5.06-4.09, and we give them win odds of 58.1%. That makes an Oakland moneyline bet a two-star play.
We also have a heavy lean on the over, which we forecast to hit 63.4% of the time and rate as a strong three-star bet.
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Moneyline (+122): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds this evening, and our model sees value on Cincy.
Connor Overton is taking the ball for the Reds, and he has only 26 innings under his belt at this level. He did light up Triple-A this year, though, to the tune of a 29.7% strikeout rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate, and his minor-league numbers overall are promising. He benefits today from a date with a Pirates offense that FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections peg as the second-worst.
JT Brubaker is up for Pittsburgh, and he has some solid numbers, including 4.03 SIERA and 24.3% strikeout rate since the start of 2021. The matchup with the Reds' offense is a nice one as Cincy is currently 24th in wOBA (.291). The big red flag for Brubaker is home runs. He allowed a massive 2.03 jacks per nine across 124 1/3 innings last year, and hitters have a 45.7% fly-ball rate against him so far in 2022.
This game is more or less a coin flip by our numbers, so there's value in the underdog Reds. We have Cincinnati winning 51.7% of the time, and they're listed at +122 on the moneyline. Taking them to win outright is a two-star wager.