MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 5/11/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
MILVladimir
Gutierrez
9.05.1140.3%25.4%14.5%7.6%3.6%
STLSpenser
Watkins
8.54.9938.2%23.6%13.2%6.7%3.1%
TEXBrady
Singer
8.54.7433.9%20.1%10.8%5.2%2.3%
LADDillon
Peters
8.54.7333.7%19.9%10.7%5.2%2.3%
SDMark
Leiter
Jr.
7.54.6432.1%18.7%9.9%4.7%2.1%
CHWAaron
Civale
8.54.5230.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
HOUChris
Archer
8.54.3927.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
SFChad
Kuhl
7.54.3727.5%15.3%7.6%3.5%1.4%
NYMAaron
Sanchez
7.54.1824.4%13.0%6.3%2.7%1.1%
MINJose
Urquidy
8.54.1123.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
KCMatt
Bush
8.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
SEABailey
Falter
7.54.0722.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
NYYJose
Berrios
7.54.0522.3%11.6%5.4%2.3%0.9%
CLEVincent
Velasquez
8.53.9821.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
ATLNathan
Eovaldi
7.53.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
CINAdrian
Houser
9.03.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
DETZach
Logue
7.53.8919.8%10.0%4.5%1.8%0.7%
MIAMerrill
Kelly
7.53.8118.6%9.2%4.1%1.6%0.6%
PITRyan
Pepiot
8.53.7718.0%8.8%3.9%1.5%0.5%
ARISandy
Alcantara
7.53.6916.8%8.1%3.5%1.3%0.5%
LAAShane
McClanahan
7.03.6616.4%7.8%3.3%1.3%0.5%
OAKJoey
Wentz
7.53.6115.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
BOSIan
Anderson
7.53.5915.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
BALMiles
Mikolas
8.53.5114.4%6.6%2.7%1.0%0.3%
TORJameson
Taillon
7.53.4513.6%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
PHILogan
Gilbert
7.53.4313.3%6.0%2.4%0.9%0.3%
TBShohei
Ohtani
7.03.3412.2%5.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%
WSHTylor
Megill
7.53.3212.0%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
CHCNick
Martinez
7.53.1810.3%4.3%1.6%0.5%0.2%
COLAlex
Cobb
7.53.139.8%4.0%1.5%0.5%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Shohei
Ohtani
TB7.091.6%82.2%69.3%54.3%39.4%26.4%16.4%
Shane
McClanahan
LAA6.286.7%74.2%58.7%42.7%28.5%17.5%9.9%
Jose
Berrios
NYY5.782.3%67.7%51.0%35.0%22.0%12.6%6.7%
Nathan
Eovaldi
ATL5.681.0%65.9%49.0%33.1%20.4%11.5%6.0%
Logan
Gilbert
PHI5.680.8%65.6%48.6%32.8%20.2%11.3%5.9%
Sandy
Alcantara
ARI5.479.1%63.3%46.1%30.5%18.3%10.1%5.1%
Alex
Cobb
COL5.377.2%60.7%43.3%28.0%16.4%8.8%4.3%
Tylor
Megill
WSH5.276.7%60.1%42.6%27.4%16.0%8.5%4.1%
Nick
Martinez
CHC5.275.5%58.5%41.0%26.0%15.0%7.8%3.8%
Merrill
Kelly
MIA5.174.9%57.7%40.2%25.3%14.4%7.5%3.6%
Ian
Anderson
BOS5.174.9%57.7%40.2%25.3%14.4%7.5%3.6%
Jose
Urquidy
MIN4.565.8%46.8%29.7%16.9%8.7%4.0%1.7%
Adrian
Houser
CIN4.464.7%45.6%28.7%16.1%8.2%3.8%1.6%
Jameson
Taillon
TOR4.464.1%44.9%28.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
Chad
Kuhl
SF4.463.2%43.9%27.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
Vincent
Velasquez
CLE4.362.5%43.1%26.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
Vladimir
Gutierrez
MIL4.261.2%41.8%25.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
Miles
Mikolas
BAL4.159.3%39.8%23.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
Aaron
Civale
CHW4.158.8%39.3%23.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
Zach
Logue
DET4.158.2%38.7%22.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
Spencer
Patton
KC4.158.2%38.7%22.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
Mark
Leiter
Jr.
SD4.056.5%36.9%21.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
Chris
Archer
HOU3.954.7%35.2%19.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
Joey
Wentz
OAK3.648.1%29.0%15.3%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
Ryan
Pepiot
PIT3.546.8%27.8%14.5%6.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%
Bailey
Falter
SEA3.545.7%26.9%13.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
Dillon
Peters
LAD3.545.3%26.5%13.6%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
Aaron
Sanchez
NYM3.444.2%25.6%12.9%5.8%2.3%0.8%0.3%
Spenser
Watkins
STL3.240.2%22.3%10.8%4.6%1.7%0.6%0.2%
Brady
Singer
TEX3.137.3%20.0%9.3%3.8%1.4%0.5%0.1%
Matt
Bush
KC1.56.3%1.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all home run props at FanDuel Sportsbook here.

Batter Team Opp PA Proj
HR
HR
Probability
xHR
Odds
Bryce HarperPHISEA4.500.3825.2%+297
Brandon BeltSFCOL4.600.3624.3%+312
Brandon LoweTBLAA4.780.3222.4%+346
Hunter RenfroeMILCIN4.310.3121.9%+356
Franmil ReyesCLECHW4.300.3121.9%+356
Salvador PerezKCTEX4.520.3021.4%+367
C.J. CronCOLSF4.340.3021.4%+367
Kyle SchwarberPHISEA4.720.3021.4%+367
Yordan AlvarezHOUMIN4.510.3021.4%+367
Jose AltuveHOUMIN4.840.2920.9%+378
Manny MachadoSDCHC4.450.2820.4%+391
Tyler O'NeillSTLBAL4.210.2820.4%+391
Jose AbreuCHWCLE4.390.2719.8%+404
Enrique HernandezBOSATL4.780.2719.8%+404
Javier BaezDETOAK4.470.2719.8%+404
Aaron JudgeNYYTOR4.450.2719.8%+404
Rhys HoskinsPHISEA4.170.2719.8%+404
Willy AdamesMILCIN4.750.2719.8%+404
Juan SotoWSHNYM4.540.2719.8%+404
Pete AlonsoNYMWSH4.570.2719.8%+404
Joey GalloNYYTOR4.000.2619.3%+418
Teoscar HernandezTORNYY4.450.2619.3%+418
Matt ChapmanTORNYY4.110.2619.3%+418
Mike YastrzemskiSFCOL4.710.2619.3%+418
Nick CastellanosPHISEA4.390.2518.7%+434
Luis RobertCHWCLE4.280.2518.7%+434
Gavin SheetsCHWCLE3.950.2518.7%+434
Jose RamirezCLECHW4.630.2418.2%+451
George SpringerTORNYY4.780.2418.2%+451
Anthony SantanderBALSTL4.420.2418.2%+451
Luis UriasMILCIN4.420.2418.2%+451
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORNYY4.560.2418.2%+451
Sean MurphyOAKDET4.470.2418.2%+451
Paul GoldschmidtSTLBAL4.550.2317.6%+469
Eugenio SuarezSEAPHI4.240.2317.6%+469
Tim AndersonCHWCLE4.610.2317.6%+469
Chad PinderOAKDET4.250.2317.6%+469
Rafael DeversBOSATL4.670.2317.6%+469
Kyle TuckerHOUMIN4.290.2317.6%+469
Jesus SanchezMIAARI4.100.2317.6%+469
Mookie BettsLADPIT4.930.2217.0%+490
Max MuncyLADPIT4.490.2217.0%+490
Josh BellWSHNYM4.430.2217.0%+490
Willson ContrerasCHCSD4.440.2217.0%+490
Charlie BlackmonCOLSF4.560.2116.3%+512
Freddie FreemanLADPIT4.820.2116.3%+512
Mike TroutLAATB4.440.2116.3%+512
Yasmani GrandalCHWCLE4.170.2116.3%+512
Rafael OrtegaCHCSD4.780.2116.3%+512
Corey SeagerTEXKC4.380.2116.3%+512
Ian HappCHCSD4.550.2116.3%+512
Shohei OhtaniLAATB4.330.2116.3%+512
Jazz ChisholmMIAARI4.760.2116.3%+512
Brandon CrawfordSFCOL4.270.2015.7%+536
Mike ZuninoTBLAA3.900.2015.7%+536
Francisco LindorNYMWSH4.680.2015.7%+536
Max KeplerMINHOU4.620.2015.7%+536
Jesse WinkerSEAPHI4.130.2015.7%+536
Harrison BaderSTLBAL3.880.2015.7%+536
Ronald AcunaATLBOS4.560.2015.7%+536
Adolis GarciaTEXKC4.160.2015.7%+536
Patrick WisdomCHCSD4.000.2015.7%+536
LaMonte Wade JrSFCOL4.040.2015.7%+536
Ryan MountcastleBALSTL4.200.2015.7%+536
Justin TurnerLADPIT4.370.1915.1%+564
Brad MillerTEXKC4.600.1915.1%+564
Jorge SolerMIAARI4.540.1915.1%+564
Rougned OdorBALSTL4.090.1915.1%+564
Jesus AguilarMIAARI4.650.1915.1%+564
Austin RileyATLBOS4.340.1915.1%+564
Sheldon NeuseOAKDET4.690.1915.1%+564
Chas McCormickHOUMIN4.070.1915.1%+564
Nelson CruzWSHNYM4.320.1814.4%+594
Christian YelichMILCIN4.640.1814.4%+594
Joc PedersonSFCOL4.380.1814.4%+594
Alex BregmanHOUMIN4.620.1814.4%+594
Connor JoeCOLSF4.670.1814.4%+594
Will SmithLADPIT4.600.1814.4%+594
Avisail GarciaMIAARI4.210.1713.7%+628
Robbie GrossmanDETOAK4.360.1713.7%+628
Adam DuvallATLBOS3.890.1713.7%+628
Michael TaylorKCTEX3.970.1713.7%+628
Cody BellingerLADPIT4.260.1713.7%+628
Garrett CooperMIAARI4.320.1713.7%+628
Lourdes GurrielTORNYY4.330.1713.7%+628
Ryan O'HearnKCTEX4.410.1713.7%+628
Rowdy TellezMILCIN4.530.1713.7%+628
Jared WalshLAATB4.100.1713.7%+628
Brendan RodgersCOLSF4.010.1713.7%+628
Bo BichetteTORNYY4.670.1713.7%+628
Dylan CarlsonSTLBAL4.100.1713.7%+628
Ryan JeffersMINHOU3.840.1713.7%+628
Ha-Seong KimSDCHC4.230.1713.7%+628
Seiya SuzukiCHCSD4.670.1713.7%+628
Anthony RizzoNYYTOR4.340.1613.1%+666
Eduardo EscobarNYMWSH4.450.1613.1%+666
Jean SeguraPHISEA4.060.1613.1%+666
Marcell OzunaATLBOS4.220.1613.1%+666
Chris TaylorLADPIT4.150.1613.1%+666
Jeimer CandelarioDETOAK4.140.1613.1%+666
Dan VogelbachPITLAD4.280.1613.1%+666
Adam EngelCHWCLE3.830.1613.1%+666
Brett PhillipsTBLAA4.010.1613.1%+666
Ramon LaureanoOAKDET4.580.1613.1%+666
Thairo EstradaSFCOL4.160.1613.1%+666
Jack MayfieldLAATB3.880.1613.1%+666
Trent GrishamSDCHC4.010.1613.1%+666
Jake CronenworthSDCHC4.670.1613.1%+666
Derek HillDETOAK4.580.1613.1%+666
Yadiel HernandezWSHNYM4.210.1613.1%+666
Alfonso RivasCHCSD4.330.1613.1%+666
DJ LeMahieuNYYTOR4.230.1512.4%+709
Nolan ArenadoSTLBAL4.430.1512.4%+709
Ketel MarteARIMIA4.010.1512.4%+709
Gary SanchezMINHOU4.400.1512.4%+709
Daulton VarshoARIMIA4.560.1512.4%+709
Jarred KelenicSEAPHI3.800.1512.4%+709
Aaron HicksNYYTOR4.560.1411.6%+759
Jonathan VillarCHCSD3.890.1411.6%+759
Wilmer FloresSFCOL4.490.1411.6%+759
Max StassiLAATB3.990.1411.6%+759
Maikel FrancoWSHNYM3.980.1411.6%+759
Trevor StoryBOSATL4.220.1411.6%+759
Matt OlsonATLBOS4.450.1411.6%+759
Hunter DozierKCTEX4.300.1411.6%+759
Alex VerdugoBOSATL4.330.1411.6%+759
Bryan ReynoldsPITLAD4.500.1411.6%+759
Seth BrownOAKDET4.360.1411.6%+759
Alec BohmPHISEA4.610.1411.6%+759
Gilberto CelestinoMINHOU3.730.1411.6%+759
Eric HosmerSDCHC4.340.1310.9%+816
Martin MaldonadoHOUMIN3.960.1310.9%+816
A.J. PollockCHWCLE4.060.1310.9%+816
Jonathan SchoopDETOAK4.030.1310.9%+816
Jorge PolancoMINHOU4.290.1310.9%+816
Trea TurnerLADPIT4.710.1310.9%+816
Brandon DruryCINMIL4.490.1310.9%+816
Yulieski GurrielHOUMIN4.400.1310.9%+816
Jorge AlfaroSDCHC4.120.1310.9%+816
Ryan McMahonCOLSF4.230.1310.9%+816
Randy ArozarenaTBLAA4.120.1310.9%+816
Joey BartSFCOL3.820.1310.9%+816
Jonah HeimTEXKC4.270.1310.9%+816
Juan YepezSTLBAL4.320.1310.9%+816
Jose MirandaMINHOU4.510.1310.9%+816
Jack SuwinskiPITLAD3.950.1310.9%+816
Xander BogaertsBOSATL4.440.1210.2%+883
Jace PetersonMILCIN3.970.1210.2%+883
Randal GrichukCOLSF4.450.1210.2%+883
J.T. RealmutoPHISEA4.280.1210.2%+883
James McCannNYMWSH4.010.1210.2%+883
Brandon NimmoNYMWSH4.900.1210.2%+883
Dominic SmithNYMWSH4.120.1210.2%+883
Cedric MullinsBALSTL4.650.1210.2%+883
Ty FranceSEAPHI4.460.1210.2%+883
Sam HilliardCOLSF3.900.1210.2%+883
Yoshitomo TsutsugoPITLAD4.170.1210.2%+883
Ramon UriasBALSTL3.980.1210.2%+883
Keibert RuizWSHNYM4.100.1210.2%+883
Julio RodriguezSEAPHI3.910.1210.2%+883
Jose AzocarSDCHC3.790.1210.2%+883
J.D. MartinezBOSATL4.550.119.4%+962
Miguel CabreraDETOAK4.250.119.4%+962
Starling MarteNYMWSH4.790.119.4%+962
Austin HedgesCLECHW3.960.119.4%+962
Elias DiazCOLSF4.120.119.4%+962
Tyler NaquinCINMIL3.930.119.4%+962
Colin MoranCINMIL4.040.119.4%+962
Ozzie AlbiesATLBOS4.110.119.4%+962
Austin HaysBALSTL4.310.119.4%+962
Tommy EdmanSTLBAL4.660.119.4%+962
Nico HoernerCHCSD4.220.119.4%+962
Owen MillerCLECHW4.520.119.4%+962
Kevin SmithOAKDET4.130.119.4%+962
Spencer TorkelsonDETOAK3.810.119.4%+962
Jeremy PenaHOUMIN4.180.119.4%+962
Kole CalhounTEXKC4.050.108.6%+1058
Christian WalkerARIMIA4.230.108.6%+1058
Gio UrshelaMINHOU4.180.108.6%+1058
Trey ManciniBALSTL4.540.108.6%+1058
J.P. CrawfordSEAPHI4.350.108.6%+1058
Ji-Man ChoiTBLAA4.450.108.6%+1058
Dansby SwansonATLBOS3.670.108.6%+1058
Yandy DiazTBLAA4.560.108.6%+1058
Amed RosarioCLECHW4.080.108.6%+1058
Travis DemeritteATLBOS3.780.108.6%+1058
Willi CastroDETOAK3.920.108.6%+1058
Ke'Bryan HayesPITLAD4.390.108.6%+1058
Wander FrancoTBLAA4.670.108.6%+1058
Bobby Witt Jr.KCTEX4.740.108.6%+1058
Jason HeywardCHCSD4.110.097.8%+1174
Mike MoustakasCINMIL4.260.097.8%+1174
Marwin GonzalezNYYTOR3.780.097.8%+1174
Jurickson ProfarSDCHC4.560.097.8%+1174
Jackie BradleyBOSATL3.890.097.8%+1174
Leury GarciaCHWCLE3.720.097.8%+1174
Marcus SemienTEXKC4.490.097.8%+1174
Tucker BarnhartDETOAK3.700.097.8%+1174
Nick AhmedARIMIA3.790.097.8%+1174
Odubel HerreraPHISEA3.940.097.8%+1174
Tony KempOAKDET4.800.097.8%+1174
Whit MerrifieldKCTEX4.190.097.8%+1174
Omar NarvaezMILCIN4.200.097.8%+1174
Yoan MoncadaCHWCLE4.500.097.8%+1174
Taylor WardLAATB4.550.097.8%+1174
Nathaniel LoweTEXKC3.940.097.8%+1174
Jorge MateoBALSTL3.760.097.8%+1174
Andres GimenezCLECHW4.190.097.8%+1174
Alex KirilloffMINHOU3.960.097.8%+1174
Brendan DonovanSTLBAL3.770.097.8%+1174
Bryson StottPHISEA3.830.097.8%+1174
MJ MelendezKCTEX4.080.097.8%+1174
Royce LewisMINHOU4.070.097.8%+1174
Lorenzo CainMILCIN4.080.087.0%+1320
Robinson ChirinosBALSTL3.870.087.0%+1320
Travis d'ArnaudATLBOS4.000.087.0%+1320
Cesar HernandezWSHNYM4.650.087.0%+1320
Tommy PhamCINMIL4.380.087.0%+1320
Mark CanhaNYMWSH4.230.087.0%+1320
Manuel MargotTBLAA4.340.087.0%+1320
Ben GamelPITLAD4.610.087.0%+1320
Jacob StallingsMIAARI3.870.087.0%+1320
Andrew BenintendiKCTEX4.630.087.0%+1320
Jose TrevinoNYYTOR3.670.087.0%+1320
Jeff McNeilNYMWSH4.340.087.0%+1320
Andrew VelazquezLAATB3.660.087.0%+1320
Josh RojasARIMIA4.120.087.0%+1320
Abraham ToroSEAPHI4.020.087.0%+1320
Alejandro KirkTORNYY4.220.087.0%+1320
Pavin SmithARIMIA4.450.087.0%+1320
Seth BeerARIMIA3.900.087.0%+1320
Yadier MolinaSTLBAL3.990.076.2%+1507
Miguel RojasMIAARI3.990.076.2%+1507
Adam FrazierSEAPHI4.570.076.2%+1507
Franchy CorderoBOSATL4.110.076.2%+1507
Myles StrawCLECHW4.850.076.2%+1507
Josh NaylorCLECHW4.410.076.2%+1507
Eli WhiteTEXKC3.710.076.2%+1507
Alek ThomasARIMIA3.670.076.2%+1507