MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 5/11/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Over 7.5 (-105): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Blue Jays Moneyline (+122): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model doesn't see a ton of value in the night games, so let's break down two afternoon affairs.
While Jose Berrios and Jameson Taillon are solid pitchers, our model really likes the over in today's tilt between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees, and we also see value on Toronto.
Berrios can, at times, look like one of the game's best hurlers. But he's also had a SIERA above 4.27 in three of the last four seasons, with last year being the lone exception. Things haven't gone well for him so far in 2022 as he sports a 4.71 SIERA and a lousy 14.8% strikeout rate. He's giving up a 40.2% fly-ball rate, which has led to 1.57 jacks per nine.
Against the Yanks earlier this season, Berrios gave up three earned runs and two jacks in a game at Yankee Stadium -- the same place they'll be today.
Once Berrios is out of the game, which could be fairly early since he's completed six innings in just two of his six starts this campaign, he'll hand it over to a Jays 'pen that owns the 10th-worst reliever xFIP (3.84)
As for Taillon, he's doing an excellent job limiting free passes (1.9% walk rate), but he is permitting a 42.8% fly-ball rate and has a swinging-strike rate of only 9.8%. Since the start of 2021, he's surrendered 1.43 homers per nine. He gave up 1.58 dingers per nine at home last year.
We have this game projected as a 4.85-4.64 win for the Jays. Toronto is a +122 moneyline 'dog, and we rate taking them to win outright as a two-star play.
We have a stronger lean on the over. Our final projection adds up to 9.49 total runs, and we forecast the over to cash 66.2% of the time, assigning it a four-star rating.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
Guardians Moneyline (+120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Guardians +1.5 (-154): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The betting market has this priced as a close game with a slight lean toward the Chicago White Sox. Our numbers see it as a close game with a slight lean toward the Cleveland Guardians.
Cleveland is turning to Aaron Civale, who is off to a pretty dope start. He carries a 3.94 SIERA, 22.2% strikeout rate, and 6.1% walk rate into this one. Prior to the year, a matchup in Chicago against the Pale Hose would've been pretty scary, but the White Sox just haven't been good offensively, sitting 24th in wOBA (.284).
Vincent Velasquez is going for the White Sox, and what we just said about Chicago's offense, we can say the exact opposite for Cleveland's. The Guardians were projected to be one of the more meh offenses in baseball, but they've been really solid thus far, ranking fifth in wOBA (.325) with the second-lowest strikeout rate (19.8%).
Through 22 2/3 frames this year, Velasquez has mostly been the same guy he's always been. The swing-and-miss stuff is there (12.2% swinging-strike rate), but control is an issue (9.1% walk rate) and so are flyballs (47.8% fly-ball rate).
Our algorithm has Cleveland winning this game 5.19-4.78, and the Guardians are listed at +120 on the moneyline. We rate that as a two-star wager.
There's also value on the runline. The -154 number is juiced up, but it implies odds of only 60.6%. We think Cleveland covers as 1.5-run underdogs a whopping 69.2% of the time (reflective of a -225 price).