MLB Betting Guide: Friday 5/6/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
Over 8.0 (-102): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
(UPDATE: The Royals-Orioles game has been postponed.)
This total is pretty low considering it's a pitching matchup of Carlos Hernandez and Jordan Lyles.
While the Kansas City Royals' offense isn't good, they can do damage against Lyles. Since the start of 2020, Lyles owns a 4.87 SIERA and 17.6% strikeout rate across a sample of 262 2/3 innings, and he has been hammered for 1.84 home runs per nine innings in that time.
Hernandez has been pretty bad, as well. In 118 1/3 career frames, he owns a 5.05 SIERA, 18.7% strikeout rate and 11.2% walk rate. After Hernandez leaves the game, which should be fairly early considering he hasn't gone past 5 1/3 innings in a start this season, the Baltimore Orioles will take their hacks against a KC 'pen that sports the fifth-worst reliever xFIP (4.08).
In all, we're projecting a 5.10-4.68 victory for the Royals. That's 9.78 total runs, and we think the over cashes 68.8% of the time. We do, however, need to monitor the weather as rain could be an issue for this game.
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
Oakland Moneyline (+164): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Oakland +1.5 (-128): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 7.5 (-115): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model sees loads of value in this game.
The starting pitchers are Cole Irvin and Josh Winder.
Winder has some intriguing numbers in his profile and had a dominant season in the minors in 2021, but he's still a dude with just 16 1/3 MLB innings to his name. He's fanned only 19.7% of hitters in that small sample, and ZiPS rest-of-season projections peg him for a 19.6% strikeout rate, per FanGraphs. Winder also has the more difficult matchup of the two starting hurlers.
Irvin is the owner of a career 4.79 SIERA and 16.4% strikeout rate. While his 4.19 SIERA this season isn't bad, he's punched out only 15.9% of hitters and is being aided by a .253 BABIP.
We have the Oakland Athletics beating the Minnesota Twins by a score of 5.19-4.92. Because I'm somewhat intrigued by Winder -- mostly due to what he did down on the farm last year -- I'm a little hesitant on the bets for Oakland, but with Winder topping out at just 83 pitches this season, he shouldn't be long for this one, which makes the over appealing to me (and our model). Our algorithm has the over hitting at a rate of 72.4%, and we mark it as a four-star play.
