3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 5/6/22

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Rowdy Tellez To Hit a Home Run (+460)

If you want to talk about a hitter who is on fire at the plate, Rowdy Tellez is that guy.

Tellez is off to a phenomenal start this season and comes in with four home runs over his last five games. While the recent home runs are great, we're not specifically targeting him tonight because of the production. His underlying metrics are strong, and that's what we're most interested in.

To start the season, Tellez is carrying a 174 wRC+, a massive .369 ISO, a lower 22.5% strikeout rate, a 53.1% fly-ball rate, and a 42.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. The power is front and center for Tellez, and it's something we want to buy into.

The Atlanta Braves will have Jesse Chavez on the mound, but he appears to be an opener for just a few innings. Chavez finished last season with a 4.51 xFIP, 42.1% fly-ball rate, and 31.6% hard-contact allowed versus left-handed hitters.

After Chavez, we should see Spencer Strider, who is allowing a 5.35 xFIP, 56.3% fly-ball rate, and 31.3% hard-contact rate versus lefty hitters this season. It's a solid matchup for Tellez with whatever pitcher is on the mound for the Braves tonight.

Luis Garcia Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-118)

With a 5.5 strikeout prop, we're looking to the over for Luis Garcia tonight.

Garcia has a 22.4% strikeout rate to start this season, which isn't super high, but he could be due for some positive regression. Last season, he ended with a 26.4% strikeout rate and was able to push it past a 30% strikeout rate in some stretches. I'm hopeful for the strikeout upside, and a matchup versus the Detroit Tigers can certainly help.

The Tigers come in with a 24.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 10th worst in the league. This is a clear plus matchup for Luis, who has five strikeouts or more in three straight starts and six or more in two of his last three outings. As always, a little sprinkle on Garcia 7+ strikeouts at +172 is viable, as well.

Ryan Mountcastle To Record an RBI (+120)

The Baltimore Orioles have a solid matchup at home for some player props to consider.

We normally see Ryan Mountcastle hitting in the middle of the Orioles' lineup, and that puts him in a good spot to cash in on his RBI prop sitting at +120 tonight. He will be going up against Carlos Hernandez, who is off to a rough start this season, allowing a 4.82 xFIP, 9.8% walk rate, 39.4% fly-ball rate, and 35.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. This should put the righties for the Orioles in a good spot, and it won't be a surprise to see them post multiple runs tonight.

Mountcastle is carrying a very solid 128 wRC+, .186 ISO, and .344 wOBA versus right-handed pitchers to start the season. Baltimore has a decent 4.18 implied run total tonight, so they are in a spot to pick up some runs, and Mountcastle should be in the middle of that.