3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/5/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Manny Machado To Hit a Home Run (+385)
One of the hottest hitters in the league has a great matchup for a home run tonight.
That hitter would be Manny Machado, who is off to a great start this season and has five home runs to his name so far. He will be going up against Jesus Luzardo, who struggled last year versus right-handed hitters, allowing a .389 wOBA, 5.22 xFIP, 2.26 HR/9, 45.2% fly-ball rate, and 39.1% hard-contact rate. Those are some dangerous numbers to be sporting against a powerful hitter such as Machado.
Last season, Machado held a .179 ISO, 118 wRC+, 48.7% fly-ball rate, and 33.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. With his hot start this year, he's carrying a 47.8% hard-contact rate, 274 wRC+, and .375 ISO in the same split. The power is there for Machado, and he has a great matchup to hit one over the fence tonight.
Shane McClanahan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114)
When it comes to strikeouts, Shane McClanahan has been absolutely elite this season.
Through five starts, McClanahan is boasting a 39.3% strikeout rate, which is not just the highest of any pitcher on tonight's slate -- it's the highest of any qualified pitcher in the entire league. He's posted 7 strikeouts or more in all five of his starts, including one up at 9 strikeouts and another at 11 strikeouts. McClanahan's potential is massive on any given night, and getting plus money on over 6.5 strikeouts is the spot to go.
He will be taking on the Seattle Mariners, who have a 21.5% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is 22nd in the league. While that may not be super high, McClanahan posted over 6.5 strikeouts in two other matchups versus teams who were also in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers. His ability is undeniable, so I'll also look to a sprinkle on eight-plus strikeouts at +210 and nine-plus strikeouts at +400.
Carlos Correa To Record An RBI (+125)
The Minnesota Twins have a 4.63 implied run total and a great matchup versus Spenser Watkins.
A high implied run total is always a good spot to look for some player props, and that leads us to Carlos Correa to record an RBI at +125. He should be hitting in the two- or the three-hole for the Twins, putting him in a good spot to pick up that RBI. He's going up against Watkins, who allowed a .436 wOBA, 6.41 xFIP, 2.89 HR/9, 43.6% fly-ball rate, and 41.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters last season.
Those are absolutely fantastic numbers to see when we are looking at the Twins' player props for tonight. Correa had a 133 wRC+, .230 ISO, 37.2% fly-ball rate, and 38.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers last season, all of which should put him in a great spot to be involved in the offense and knock in a run.