3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/2/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Anthony Rizzo To Hit a Home Run (+450)
The New York Yankees have a great matchup versus Ross Stripling and are in a spot for some home runs. A 4.32 implied run total for the Yankees is the second-highest on the slate, and with their offense firing on all cylinders right now, they could surpass that.
Stripling is a pitcher we can attack for home runs. Last season, he allowed 1.64 HR/9 to lefties, along with a 4.47 xFIP, 45.2% fly-ball rate, and 35.8% hard-contact rate. He was nearly as bad versus right-handed hitters, which puts several of the Yankees' hitters in a good spot tonight.
We turn to Anthony Rizzo, who is on fire to start the season with a league-leading nine home runs. Regardless of his hot start, Rizzo is still a hitter with plenty of power upside for a home run. Last season, he had a .197 ISO, 42.1% fly-ball rate, and 31.5% hard-contact rate. Those numbers are all boosted to start the season this year, and he has a great price for a home run tonight.
Pablo Lopez over 6.5 Strikeouts (-116)
This is a very straightforward matchup for Pablo Lopez tonight.
His strikeout prop is sitting at 6.5 tonight, and I'm going with the over versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. This season, the Diamondbacks have a 26.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is dead last in the league. They also have an 81 wRC+, which is 25th.
They don't pose too much of a threat to Lopez, who is carrying a solid 27.1% strikeout rate this season that's in line with his 27.5% strikeout rate from 2021. Lopez has posted six strikeouts or more in three of his four starts, and with the easy matchup, he should be able to push past that tonight.
Yordan Alvarez To Record an RBI (+115)
At plus money, Yordan Alvarez's RBI prop is the spot I'm looking tonight.
Alvarez is an elite hitter and bats in the middle of the lineup for the Houston Astros, who have a slate-high 4.45 implied run total. Alvarez is going up against Marco Gonzales, who is a pitcher worth attacking tonight.
While this is a lefty versus lefty, Alvarez showed last season that he is strong in this matchup. He finished last year with a 140 wRC+, .249 ISO, and 39.6% hard-contact rate versus lefty pitchers.
Gonzales struggled last season versus left-handed hitters, allowing 1.36 HR/9 with a low 19.3% strikeout rate and a 36.0% fly-ball rate. Considering the Astros hold such a high implied run total, Alvarez is fully in the mix to hit with runners on base and pick up an easy RBI.
