MLB Betting Guide: Friday 4/29/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Over 8.5 (-110): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Starting pitchers Kyle Bradish and Rich Hill square off tonight, and our model loves the over in this game.
We have the offense of the Boston Red Sox doing a lot of damage against Bradish, who is making his MLB debut. While Bradish has some juicy minor-league numbers, including a 27.8% strikeout rate last year in Triple-A, facing the Red Sox at homer-happy Camden Yards is a really tough first assignment. Despite a slow start, the Boston offense should be fine, and FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections rank them as the seventh-best offense.
We project the Red Sox to score 5.37 runs, so we don't need a ton from the Baltimore Orioles to push us to the over. They should be able to get some runs across against Hill.
A 42-year-old lefty, Hill has registered a measly 12.1% strikeout rate through his first 13 innings of this season. Over 210 1/3 frames since the start of 2020, Hill boasts a 4.63 SIERA and is giving up a 43.1% fly-ball rate. This Baltimore offense ended 2021 with the 12th-best wOBA against southpaws (.321), and we have them scoring 4.64 runs today.
That's a total of 10.01 runs, and we think the over hits 62.8% of the time.
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
White Sox Moneyline (-134): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
White Sox 1.5 (+168): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Lucas Giolito returned from the injured list last week and looked great, punching out nine over four dominant innings. He's been excellent in his very small sample of eight innings this season, recording 15 punchouts while allowing just one earned run. He threw 76 pitches last time out and should push closer to 90 today.
Noah Syndergaard is going for the Los Angeles Angels, and he's looked pretty good thus far in his first significant action since 2019. But this is a guy who has thrown all of 19 big-league innings since that 2019 season ended. Our algorithm backs the offense of the Chicago White Sox to give Thor fits; we project the Pale Hose to score 5.56 runs.
In all, we forecast the White Sox to win by a score of 5.56-4.22, which creates a lot of value on the South Siders. We give Chicago win odds of 66.5%. The -134 moneyline implies win odds of only 57.3%. We also think the White Sox cover as 1.5-run favorites 49.6% of the time, and they're listed at +168 on the runline.