3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/27/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Mitch Garver To Hit a Home Run (+265)
A strong matchup puts Mitch Garver in a great spot to hit a home run tonight. The Texas Rangers are sporting a 4.17 implied run total tonight and are up against Cristian Javier, a pitcher worth attacking.
Last season, Javier allowed 1.45 HR/9 to righties, along with a 55.1% fly-ball rate and 32.0% hard-contact rate. Javier also carried a strong 35.7% strikeout rate versus righties, which is no doubt elite. When he's locked in, Javier can take care of a lineup easily. However, the downside for Javier is also very apparent with that high fly-ball rate, which led to all of the home runs allowed.
Garver finished last season with a big .281 ISO, 168 wRC+, 42.7% fly-ball rate, and 45.3% hard-contact rate versus righties. With these fly-ball rates lining up, Garver is a clear threat to go deep tonight for the Rangers.
Austin Riley To Record an RBI (+120)
The Atlanta Braves' offense has plenty of power and is a great spot to look for some player props. There are great hitters up and down the Braves' lineup, and with a slate-high 4.89 implied run total, they are primed for plenty of offense.
They will be going up against Mark Leiter Jr., who's been up and down between the majors and minors for a few seasons, so we'll look at his career numbers overall. He's allowed a .364 wOBA, 4.41 xFIP, low 19.9% strikeout rate, 1.93 HR/9, and 23.2% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed hitters.
Simply put, Leiter is not a good pitcher, and we should be actively looking to attack him tonight.
Austin Riley normally hits in the three-hole for the Braves, giving him plenty of offensive equity on a nightly basis. He comes in with four RBIs over his last five games, and of course, that's a small sample size.
So, we'll look to his numbers from last season, where his production came mostly off of right-handed pitchers. Last year, 89 of Riley's 107 RBIs came via right-handed pitchers, largely due to his .396 wOBA and 146 wRC+.
Xander Bogaerts 2+ Total Bases (+105)
The Boston Red Sox have an elite matchup tonight versus Ross Stripling. While this Red Sox offense has been a bit inconsistent to start the season, they have a chance to turn that around versus Stripling.
To put it nicely, Stripling can struggle at times on the mound. And to be realistic, Stripling is a bad pitcher, and I'm legitimately looking to attack him with player props each and every time he is on the mound this season.
If we look back to last year, Stripling allowed 2.29 HR/9 with a 4.67 xFIP, .347 wOBA, and 44.2% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.
With numbers like those, I'm giddy with excitement for the Red Sox hitters tonight. We turn to Xander Bogaerts, who had a 135 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .220 ISO, and 38.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers last season. The 2+ total bases prop is plus money, and this is something Bogaerts could get done in one swing.
