MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/26/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
Over 7.5 (-114): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
With the way Joe Musgrove is pitching right now, it doesn't feel good to back the over in a game in which he's starting, but that's the direction our model leans today -- and it's a heavy lean.
Musgrove has been lights out, posting a 30.4% strikeout rate and 1.4% walk rate en route to a sparkling 2.01 SIERA over his first 19 innings of the season. He faced the Cincinnati Reds last time out and held them to two earned runs across 6 1/3 frames while punching out seven.
While Musgrove should do well tonight, our model projects the Reds' offense to put up a fight, forecasting Cincy to score 4.48 runs. On paper, it's hard to see the Reds doing too much against Musgrove, but Great American Ball Park will provide a boost to the bats of both squads. And, really, we should get a lot of production out of the San Diego Padres' lineup.
San Diego is taking on lefty Reiver Sanmartin. After thriving in the minors in 2021 and looking good in a cup of coffee in the bigs, Sanmartin locked down a rotation spot coming out of spring training this year. It hasn't gone well. His strikeout rate (14.5%) and walk rate (10.9%) are eyesores thus far in 2022, and he permitted five earned runs in 5 1/3 last time out against these same Padres.
After Sanmartin, San Diego gets to face a Cincy 'pen that owns the second-worst reliever SIERA (3.91). All of that leads to our algorithm projecting the Padres to score 5.56 runs.
We have a total of 10.04 runs being scored in this game, so even if you think we're a little too high on the Reds' offense against Musgrove, there is wiggle room for you to be right about that and the over to still cash. We give the over a 70.4% chance to win out and mark it as a four-star bet. It's our top-rated bet of the day.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Houston Moneyline (-108): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Houston -1.5 (+138): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our projections see value on the Houston Astros tonight in their matchup with the Texas Rangers.
There should be plenty of offense on each side as the starting pitchers are Jake Odorizzi and Taylor Hearn. We like both offenses to do well, but we really like Houston's bats to go off.
Hearn, a lefty, has been both a starter and reliever with Texas. He's starting full-time this year and hasn't gone more than four innings in any of his three appearances. Houston's offense will get plenty of time to go to work against a Texas bullpen that sports the fifth-worst reliever SIERA (3.62). And they'll have a good chance to punish Hearn, too, as he's permitted a 41.2% fly-ball rate and 1.42 dingers per nine in 132 2/3 career innings.
Odorizzi isn't good, but his matchup isn't as tough as Hearn's. While Houston's offense sits 9th in FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections, the Rangers' offense ranks 15th, and despite some big-money signings this offseason, Texas is only 20th in wOBA (.293) in the early going.
In all, we have Houston winning by a score of 5.75-4.30. We give the Astros win odds of 63.2% -- much higher than the 51.9% implied odds from the -108 moneyline. We also have Houston covering as 1.5-run favorites 52.0% of the time. We rate Houston on the moneyline and runline as three and two-star wagers, respectively.
