MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 4/25/22

Thomas Vecchio  —  @Tom_Vecchio1 Apr 25th, 2022
Alex Bregman is off to a good start this season and has a great matchup tonight. What other player props should you consider?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Alex Bregman To Hit a Home Run (+440)

The Houston Astros have a strong 4.26 implied run total tonight, and we could see some of that come via home runs.

Dane Dunning will be on the mound for the Texas Rangers, who is a pitcher that's worth attacking and looking for some home runs against. Last season, Dunning allowed 1.25 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, along with a 34.0% fly-ball rate, and a 23.7% HR/FB ratio. Dunning is a bit of a reverse split pitcher, and that puts Alex Bregman in a great spot.

Last season, Bregman dealt with some injuries and only had a .158 ISO versus right-handed pitchers. That is far below his career ISO in the split, which is sitting at .215. Considering he's off to a good start this season with a .294 ISO versus righties, I'm not worried about his numbers from last season. This is a matchup he has always excelled in -- now going up against a home run prone pitcher.

Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)

There are a number of solid pitchers on tonight's slate and plenty of props to consider.

I'm turning to Nathan Eovaldi, whose strikeout prop is sitting at 5.5. I'm leaning to the over.

He's posted 7, 6, and 6 strikeouts in his first three starts, which is good for a 29.2% strikeout rate to start the season. On top of that, he's pitched 101 and 95 pitches in each of his last two starts, meaning he is fully stretched out and ready to go deeper into games. We don't have to worry about him having a short leash and getting pulled early.

Eovaldi will be up against the Toronto Blue Jays, who have a 22.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers to start the season. That's slightly better than the league average -- but not by much. Given Eovaldi is going deeper into games and has been pushing his strikeout rate higher this season, I'm going with over 5.5 strikeouts tonight.

Trea Turner To Score a Run (+100)

A slate-high 5.11 implied run total for the Los Angeles Dodgers has them at the top of the list for player props tonight.

When a team is expected to score that many runs, we should be looking to their best hitters for player props -- something that will be a theme here all season.

Trea Turner hits near the top of the lineup for the Dodgers and finished last season with a .355 wOBA, a low 19.0% strikeout rate, and a 121 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers. He gets on base, doesn't waste chances at the plate, and can always steal some bases. With the power potential in the Dodgers' lineup hitting behind him, he always has the potential to score some runs.

He will be going up against Merrill Kelly, who is certainly off to a strong start this season and could be due for some regression. He's posting a 33.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters this season compared to his career number of 22.8%. He is also allowing a .206 wOBA in this split compared to a .326 wOBA in his career.

The list goes on and on for his stats this season outperforming his career numbers, but I'm not buying it. The Dodgers are a squad that can help his regression hit quickly.