3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/20/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Sandy Alcantara Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-102)
With a strikeout prop sitting at 5.5, Sandy Alcantara is a guy I'm looking at tonight.
There's no doubt that Alcantara is a good pitcher, but the matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals isn't ideal for him to rack up strikeouts. Last season versus right-handed pitchers, the Cardinals had a 20.5% strikeout rate, which was the fourth-lowest in the league. This season, that mark is sitting at 15.6% -- the lowest in the league. They are a lineup that simply does not waste chances at the plate and are very disciplined.
Alcantara had a 24.0% strikeout rate last season, which isn't that high in the grand scheme of things, and he has 9 strikeouts through 11.1 innings pitched this season. Unders aren't for everyone, but this is a spot I'm on today.
Rafael Devers To Hit a Home Run (+440)
Rafael Devers is a great power hitter and has a strong matchup to let that shine.
The Boston Red Sox have a 4.57 implied total, which is the third-highest on tonight's slate, and are at home in Fenway Park -- one of the best hitter's parks in the league. Jose Berrios will be on the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays. He ended last season allowing 1.51 HR/9 to lefties, along with a 37.5% fly-ball rate and a 38.8% hard-contact rate. While Berrios can rack up strikeouts, he can also get hit hard, especially by left-handed bats.
We turn to Devers, who had a 152 wRC+, .401 wOBA, .341 ISO, 44.3% fly-ball rate, and 45.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers last season. A great hitter's park, a great matchup, and one of the best hitters in the league -- and, on top of it all, big odds for a home run.
Carlos Correa 2+ Total Bases (+110)
The Minnesota Twins have a solid matchup versus Daniel Lynch and are carrying a 4.67 implied total. The Twins are expected to score some runs tonight, and we should want to grab some player props from their offense.
Carlos Correa isn't off to the hottest start with his new team, but he's still a strong hitter and can hit the 2+ total bases due to the matchup versus Lynch. Last season, Lynch allowed a .381 wOBA, 5.46 xFIP, 1.39 HR/9, a 39.7% fly-ball rate, and 38.7% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are some rough numbers in this split, and it could spell great things for the Twins today.
Correa had a strong 138 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .230 ISO, and 38.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers last season. While the slow start to 2022 isn't ideal, Correa has a long track record of success, and the plus money is worth targeting.
