3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for Monday 4/18/22
Stacks are an integral part of daily fantasy baseball. They can push a team to the top of a GPP by driving upside. However, they're also viable in cash games, namely smaller (two-person or three-person) stacks that mitigate the volatility of a full four-person stack.
This article is your home throughout the 2022 Major League Baseball season for the day's top stacks. The primary goal is to identify the highest-scoring upside stack. Still, game theory will play a role in contrarian stacks making the cut as GPP options. Nevertheless, chalky stacks will make appearances in this space, too.
Beyond my analysis in this space, I strongly suggest numberFire premium members using our DFS Sharpstack tool and hitting heat map tool. The DFS Sharpstack helps plug stacks into optimized lineups, allowing you to change parameters and lock or exclude players and teams. Meanwhile, the heat map offers a one-stop-shop for the opposing starting pitcher, implied total, park factor, and other notable goodies.
Now, let's look at the top stacks on today's main slate.
The other shoe is going to drop for Madison Bumgarner. It's not a question of if. Instead, it's a question of when. So, why not tonight? MadBum has had an extremely lucky start to the year.
According to FanGraphs, his 2.25 ERA in eight innings is much better than his 5.07 Expected ERA (xERA) and 7.30 Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA). So, revisiting my question above, I don't see any reason why the Washington Nationals can't make the other shoe drop tonight, starting the regression process in earnest for the veteran lefty.
The left-handed Bumgarner has been worse against righties than lefties since last year. Regardless, Juan Soto ($4,200) is an elite and a usable option in this stack. However, my two favorite options are Nelson Cruz ($3,000) and Lane Thomas ($2,300).
Cruz has been a beast against lefties. In 393 plate appearances against them since 2019, he has had a .410 OBP, .327 Isolated Power (ISO), and 176 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). Meanwhile, Thomas has only 103 plate appearances against lefties in his career, but his .437 OBP, .216 ISO, and 163 wRC+ are outstanding. Finally, I don't expect the Nationals to be a chalky pick, enhancing their GPP appeal.
The Colorado Rockies host Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. Before 2021, a matchup with Nola would have been an excuse to fade a Colorado stack. However, he has struggled since the start of last year.
In Nola's last 190 innings, he has had a 4.74 ERA, coughing up 1.37 homers per nine innings. Yes, his ERA estimators have been a lot better than his ugly ERA. Nonetheless, I'm unwilling to blindly chalk his struggles up to bad luck and variance until he shows signs of closing the gap between his ERA and ERA estimators.
Gamers can stack the Rockies anywhere in the order. Thankfully, the forthcoming stack and the visiting Phillies should help keep the percentage of rosters the Rockies are stacked on from completely spiraling out of control. Still, the Rockies will be popular.
Narrowing the Rockies down to my favorite picks reveals Connor Joe ($3,700), Kris Bryant ($4,100), and C.J. Cron ($4,300). Joe has been perched atop Colorado's lineup, and he's made the most of 79 plate appearances against righties at hitter-friendly Coors Field with the Rockies, recording a .418 OBP, .299 ISO, and 151 wRC+.
Bryant brings above-average power to the table, even in same-handed matchups. Since 2019, he has had a .201 ISO against righties. Finally, Cron is my favorite member of the trio. In 214 plate appearances against righties at home with the Rockies since last year, he had a .388 OBP, .316 ISO, and 142 wRC+. Cron has also opened the year on a heater, mashing five taters in 39 plate appearances with a .486 ISO.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are going to be a popular stack nightly throughout the year. That's what happens when a team assembles a borderline all-star team. Is there a chance they'll be on a slightly lower percentage of rosters tonight because there is a game at Coors Field? Maybe. Regardless, I love the Dodgers against Huascar Ynoa tonight, no matter the percentage of rosters they're on.
Ynoa was ambushed by the Nationals in his first start of 2022, allowing five runs on seven hits, one homer, and two walks in three innings. The young righty had a 4.05 ERA In 2021, but even pitching to that level is unlikely to keep the Dodgers' offense in check. In addition, if he's shaky like he was in his first start, the Dodgers will eat him alive.
The Dodgers' offense has an enviable amount of top-end talent and depth. All nine of their probable starting hitters tonight have had at least a 105 wRC+ against righties since 2019, seven have had at least a 125 wRC+, and three have had at least a 142 wRC+. Interestingly, four of the hitters with better than a 125 wRC+ are right-handed batters.
Further, Ynoa has performed worse against righties than lefties since last year. The right-handed pitcher has allowed a .328 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) to 215 righties since last year. As a result, I'm enamored with the four righties I teased above, Mookie Betts ($3,800), Trea Turner ($3,900), Justin Turner ($3,400), and Will Smith ($3,700). But, of course, there's nothing wrong with mixing in anyone else in the lineup. It's literally an above-average lineup at every spot.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.