3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 4/15/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Joey Gallo To Hit a Home Run (+400)
The New York Yankees have plenty of home run hitters in their lineup and some home run props to consider.
With a 5.17 implied run total, the Yankees are among the highest-projected teams on the slate and in a great spot to exceed that tonight.
They're going up against Jordan Lyles, who is a pitcher we want to actively attack each and every time is on the slate. Last season, Lyles allowed a 5.63 xFIP, 1.75 HR9, a 10.4% walk rate, a 45.3% fly-ball rate, and a 37.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Lyles just isn't a good pitcher; there's really no other way to put it.
We turn to Joey Gallo, who is looking for his first home run of the season, and this is a great matchup to find it. Last year, he had a 127 wRC+, a .277 ISO, a 50.3% fly-ball rate, and a 37.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
With a solid hitting environment in Baltimore, the Yankees are in a good spot for some home runs.
Dylan Cease Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Taking the under is never for the faint of heart, but it's the spot I'm looking for tonight.
Dylan Cease is a good pitcher and showed that last season with a 31.9% strikeout rate and a 3.72 xFIP. He's flashed the high upside potential before, but he has one area to improve -- his walk rate. Last year, his walk rate was sitting at 9.6%, which is very questionable. While he can certainly punch some hitters out, the walks increase his pitch count quickly and can get him pulled from the game early.
In his first start, he went 5.0 innings with 8 strikeouts, 3 walks, 1 earned run, and just 79 pitches. Realistically, he shouldn't see more than 80-85 pitches tonight, and that puts him in a spot to hit the under if he doesn't rack up the strikeouts.
With -138 juice sitting on the over, that's too much for m. I'll side with the under.
Mookie Betts Over 2 Total Bases (-120)
Mookie Betts is one of the most consistent hitters in the league, and two-plus total bases are the spot to take.
The Los Angeles Dodgers offense is incredible and carries a slate-high 5.41 implied run total means you want some exposure here via the prop market tonight. Betts finished last season with a 131 wRC+, a low 14.1% strikeout rate, a .365 wOBA, and a .225 ISO versus right-handed pitchers. He's elite in nearly every category, and it puts him in a spot for a multi-hit game every night.
He'll be up against Vladimir Gutierrez, who's only had one MLB season under his belt last year, and it wasn't the best start. He allowed a 4.26 xFIP, a 21.6% strikeout rate, and 1.06 HR/9 versus right-handed hitters.
The Dodgers have that slate-high run total for a reason and given their offensive potential, Betts should be involved and able to hit to find the basepaths tonight.