MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/13/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds
Over 9.0 (-106): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
We've got a full day of baseball on Wednesday, and this is one of the first games of the day, with start time set for 12:35 p.m. EST.
I want to get this out of the way first -- weather could be an issue here. But if this game plays, we project a whole bunch of runs to be scored.
The Cleveland Guardians are starting Triston McKenzie while the Cincinnati Reds go with Nick Lodolo.
Lodolo is making his MLB debut, and he's pitched only 6 2/3 frames above Double-A. The Guardians have scored 10, 10, and 17 runs across their past three games, so they should present quite the challenge for the rookie -- especially at homer-happy Great American Ball Park. While Lodolo's Double-A strikeout numbers are really good (39.3% strikeout rate), our model projects Cleveland to score 5.48 runs.
McKenzie is a good hurler who sports a 28.2% strikeout rate in 156 1/3 career innings. He has a homer issue, though, allowing 1.55 per nine for his career. He gave up a 57.1% fly-ball rate a year ago, and even though the Cincy lineup isn't anything special, surrendering a lot of fly-balls at Great American Ball Park is a recipe for disaster. We have the Reds plating 5.38 runs.
In all, we're projecting there to be 10.86 runs -- nearly two runs over the 9.0-run line. We have the over hitting 59.6% of the time and rate it as a four-star play. It's our top bet of the day.
Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 9.0 (-102): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Another game. Another over.
This one is mostly about the Houston Astros teeing off on Merrill Kelly.
Kelly posted a 4.43 SIERA last year with a lowly 19.5% strikeout rate. He particularly struggled against righties, permitting a .356 wOBA and 1.58 jacks per nine in the split. Going up against a Houston lineup that doesn't whiff much and boasts righty sticks like Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, Kelly should be in a world of hurt.
Our algorithm forecasts the Astros to score 5.78 runs.
That means we don't need too much from the Arizona Diamondbacks' offense to get us to the over. That's good because they might not do a whole lot versus Framber Valdez, a ground-ball maestro. Still, we project the D-Backs to get 4.32 runs across.
That's 10.1 runs in all, and we have the over winning out 52.8% of the time.