3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Friday 4/8/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain offenses in good spots to produce. While one batter may not have a stellar evening, the collective production of that stack can be enormous.
However, most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. Therefore, low-salaried "one-off" plays can be crucial to making a lineup work.
Let's take a look at some low-salary plays you can turn to tonight.
Adam Duvall, OF, Braves ($2,800)
Adam Duvall is a modest-salaried way to get a piece of an Atlanta Braves offense that holds a 4.84 implied total -- third-highest of the slate -- against Reiver Sanmartin.
Duvall will have the platoon advantage versus Sanmartin, a lefty. In this split a year ago, Duvall registered a 56.8% fly-ball rate, and he had a .373 wOBA and 50.0% fly-ball rate against lefties in 2020.
Sanmartin has recorded some saucy strikeout rates in the minors, but he's got just 11 2/3 MLB frames to his name in his career. On the road against a quality lineup, Sanmartin has his work cut out for him.
We project Duvall for 12.0 FanDuel points and rate him as the fifth-best point-per-dollar play among outfield-only options.
J.D. Davis, 3B/OF, Mets ($2,100)
J.D. Davis is a great place to save salary on this slate.
He hit second last night against a lefty, and even if he's in a worse spot in the lineup today against righty Josiah Gray, Davis can deliver, and his multi-position eligibility makes him a handy piece of the puzzle. He put up a .357 wOBA last season in 211 plate appearances, including a .381 wOBA against right-handers.
Gray, a former top prospect, flashed swing-and-miss stuff last campaign, but he also had a gopher-ball problem, surrendering a whopping 2.42 jacks per nine over 70 2/3 innings.
The New York Mets carry a respectable 4.68 implied total, and Davis is a superb way to get access to it. We project him as the second-best point-per-dollar stick.
Brad Miller, 1B/OF, Rangers ($2,500)
Thank you, Texas Rangers, for posting your lineup early and letting all of us know that Brad Miller is a dope value play.
Miller is slotted atop the order for the Rangers, a team that vastly improved its lineup this offseason. Hitting behind Miller are new signings Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, and that enhances the fantasy prospects for Miller, who is another guy you can plug in at multiple spots.
The matchup is a tough one as Texas is on the road to face Jose Berrios. Coming off a career-best year, Berrios is one of the slate's best pitchers. But Texas' 4.05 implied total isn't brutally low, and lefties (38.8% hard-hit rate) had much more success last year versus Berrios than righties (26.9% hard-hit rate) did. And it doesn't hurt that Toronto is a friendly place for bats.
Our algorithm rates Miller as the slate's third-best point-per-dollar hitter.