MLB Betting Guide: World Series Game 1
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Braves Moneyline (+118): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Under 8.5 (-118): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The 2021 World Series gets going tonight as the Houston Astros host the Atlanta Braves. As you'd expect, the betting lines are pretty dang sharp, per our model, but there is a little bit of value out there in backing the under and Atlanta.
The Braves are sending Charlie Morton to the bump, and he was stellar this season, pitching to a 3.53 SIERA, 28.6% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate while limiting hitters to 0.78 homers per nine. Through 14 1/3 innings this postseason, Morton has more or less been the same guy, recording a 3.70 SIERA and 30.6% strikeout rate.
Houston's offense is an extremely difficult matchup -- possibly the most arduous matchup in baseball. They finished the regular season with the second-best wOBA (.336) and the lowest strikeout rate (19.4%). But Morton is capable of keeping the Astros in check if he's on.
Framber Valdez gets the nod for Houston, and the lefty is plenty good in his own right, spinning his way to a 3.79 SIERA in the regular season. He's not a big strikeout guy, though, sporting a 21.9% strikeout rate in the regular season and a 20.6% clip in 15 playoff frames. He makes his living by inducing grounders, with his 14.9% fly-ball rate a comically low mark.
With Atlanta getting to utilize the DH, Valdez will likely have to face a better-than-usual Atlanta lineup as Jorge Soler should join Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Adam Duvall as middle-of-the-order bats who will swing from the right side. Soler had a .360 wOBA and 50.5% fly-ball rate this year against lefties. Duvall posted a 56.8% fly-ball rate in the split.
Our model expects runs to be hard to come by. We project a 4.03-3.90 win for Houston. That's 7.93 runs, and with the total at 8.5, we have the under hitting 55.4% of the time. That's our top bet of the night.
But there's also a very small edge in betting on the underdog Braves to win. While we have the Astros coming out on top, we still give Atlanta a 46.4% chance to win. Their +118 moneyline price implies win odds of 46.0%.