MLB ALCS Betting Guide: Red Sox at Astros, Game 6
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
Astros Moneyline (-116): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The lines are pretty tight across the board for tonight's Game 6, according to our numbers, but there's a slight edge in backing the Houston Astros to win.
The Boston Red Sox will give the ball to Nathan Eovaldi, who has delivered in big games in October for Boston. Houston's lineup will be a very stiff challenge, though.
In Game 2, Eovaldi fired 5 1/3 innings of three-run ball and fanned just three. That's what the Astros do -- they pack a lot of pop and are tough to strike out. In the regular season, Houston ranked second in wOBA (.336) while sporting the lowest strikeout rate (19.4%). All year long, Houston was excellent at home, going 51-30 at Minute Maid Park.
Houston is turning to rookie Luis Garcia. In the aforementioned Game 2, Garcia had a rough one, permitting five runs and getting just three outs before exiting early due to an injury. He's recovered in time for tonight, and he turned in a superb 2021 campaign, pitching to a 3.91 SIERA and 26.4% strikeout rate.
His big bugaboo is left-handed hitters, but a righty-heavy Boston team will likely have just three of them -- Kyle Schwarber, Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo -- in the starting nine.
Our projections give Houston a 55.4% chance to win Game 6. At a moneyline price of -116, the Astros' implied win odds are 53.7%. It's not much, but there's a sliver of value in taking the Astros to win. We rate it as a one-star bet.
