MLB Betting Guide: Friday 10/1/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 9.0 (-120): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Let's start with Boston's offense, a top-shelf lineup that should feast on Rogers. In 29 2/3 MLB innings this year, Rogers has recorded a 15.3% strikeout rate and 5.45 SIERA. In a much larger sample of 73 Triple-A innings, he posted a 15.6% strikeout rate. Righties have smacked him for a .376 wOBA and 46.0% fly-ball rate so far in the bigs, and he should be in a world of hurt against this Red Sox lineup.
Rodriguez is a much better pitcher (3.62 SIERA and 27.4% strikeout rate) who gets a boost by pitching without the DH. But E-Rod has gone past five innings only once in his last four appearances, and he's facing a Nats offense that keeps on mashing, putting up a .337 wOBA over the last 30 days.
Our model projects Boston to be the driving force toward getting this game over the total, but we have Washington's offense doing some damage, too. We project a 5.92-4.92 win for Boston and give the over a 59.2% chance to hit.
Atlanta Moneyline (-120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Atlanta is sending rookie Huascar Ynoa to the bump. Ynoa has been excellent in 2021, dominating to the tune of a 3.59 SIERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 12.9% swinging-strike rate. Ynoa has been inconsistent since coming off the injured list in mid-August, but he can thrive in a matchup with the Mets, who own the seventh-highest strikeout rate (24.0%) over the last 30 days.
Tylor Megill is another first-year hurler who has some intriguing numbers. For the campaign, Megill has pitched to a 3.90 SIERA and 25.7% strikeout rate. His big issue has been the long ball -- especially against lefties. Megill has permitted 2.02 homers per nine overall, including a whopping 3.16 per nine to left-handed hitters. He's in for a tough bout with Freddie Freeman and company as this is a Braves offense that sits 11th in wOBA since the break (.326).
Our numbers give the Braves a 62.1% chance to win. The -120 moneyline price implies win odds of 54.5%, so there's value in taking Atlanta on the moneyline.