FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 9/28/21
After Monday's bizarre MLB schedule, it's back to our regularly scheduled programming tonight, with 13 games adorning Tuesday's main slate. It's also one with all sorts of quality pitching, though like always, matchups and other factors can help us whittle things down. Coors Field and some usual suspects on offense lead the way for stacks.
Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!
Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.
Logan Webb ($9,000): Webb checks a number of boxes tonight, boasting excellent underlying numbers, facing a weak opponent, starting for a team with plenty left to play for -- and all at a mid-range salary to boot.
It might surprise you that it's actually Webb who leads the slate in SIERA (3.17), just barely edging out Zack Wheeler (3.18) by a hair. And while Webb doesn't have quite the strikeout firepower of some others on the board (26.2%), he makes up for it with a truly elite ground-ball rate (61.3%) and low walk rate (6.2%). It's all helped Webb log quality starts in 10 of his last 12 starts, and he's reached seven or more innings in 5 of his last 8.
Brandon Woodruff ($10,200): If this were earlier in the season, I would probably place Woodruff at the top of the list. But with Milwaukee coasting to the postseason, Woodruff's been capped at six innings in his starts -- he last exceeded six frames on July 25th -- potentially limiting his ceiling.
That being said, he's coming off a 10-strikeout outing against these same Cardinals, netting him 49 FanDuel points. He also posted 49 and 58 points at the end of August. Innings restriction or not, Woodruff still owns a fantastic 3.27 SIERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate, and his pitch counts have been solid, so I'm not sure we can rule out another strong outing.
Of course, facing the same team twice in a row isn't an easy task, let alone one on a 16-game win streak. Still, St. Louis's roster is a below-average offense against righties for the year (94 wRC+) and is showing a middling 3.43 implied total.
Zack Wheeler ($10,700) and Charlie Morton ($8,600): If you're more inclined to roster a pitcher with more on the line than Woodruff, then Wheeler and Morton are facing off against one another at different salary tiers in a divisional matchup.
Wheeler's in the tougher spot against Atlanta, but as alluded to earlier, Wheeler has been dominant this season. Along with his stellar 3.18 SIERA, he's put up a 29.2% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate, and 49.5% ground-ball rate. He's always a strong bet pitch deep into games, too, going at least six innings in 12 of his last 13 starts while exceeding six innings 7 times.
Meanwhile, Morton's marks aren't far behind all these other guys I've mentioned, rolling into the evening with a 3.58 SIERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, and 7.8% walk rate. The Phillies aren't pushovers on offense, but their active roster has a middle-of-the-road 95 wRC+ versus righties and is getting credited with just a 3.57 implied total.
In terms of upside, I'm probably the lowest on Morton in this group, but he's a solid value at his salary.
Colorado Rockies: The Rockies are getting a slate-high 6.06 implied total at Coors Field, and when you see lefty Patrick Corbin on the other side, it's easy to see why. Against right-handed batters, Corbin has posted a 16.8% strikeout rate while getting absolutely pummeled with home runs, giving up 2.42 per nine innings. Yeah, I'd say this one's pretty straightforward.
Trevor Story ($3,800) and C.J. Cron ($3,800) are the top righty sticks to consider, and then we also get reasonable value from Garrett Hampson ($2,900) and Elias Diaz ($3,100) if they're in the lineup. Another righty, Colton Welker ($2,500), might find his way in, as well, and he showed decent power in Triple-A this year (.190 ISO).
We can also always flip over the Nationals in that Coors game for another stack, with righties having the advantage against another lefty in Kyle Freeland -- though you're obviously still keeping Juan Soto ($4,600) in the mix despite the lefty-lefty spot.
Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox are right up there with Coors Field with a robust 5.44 implied total, facing left-hander Bruce Zimmermann at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. The righties are the first place to look yet again, as Zimmermann owns a 4.71 xFIP, 18.9% strikeout rate, and 36.5% ground-ball rate in the split, and he's struggled to keep the ball in the yard.
That would be enough to like Boston on its own, but they also get to take on a Baltimore bullpen that's put up the league's second-worst xFIP over the last 30 days (5.55).
The Red Sox have a slew of power righties we can choose from, including J.D. Martinez ($4,000), Xander Bogaerts ($3,700), Hunter Renfroe ($3,600), Enrique Hernandez ($3,600), and Bobby Dalbec ($3,000). Dalbec has been one of the team's hottest hitters down the stretch, producing a .408 ISO over the past month with a 45.8% hard-hit rate and 52.1% fly-ball rate.
The lefties in the lineup are secondary options, but don't overlook them in tournaments due to the shoddy bullpen.
San Francisco Giants: Luke Weaver hasn't performed terribly across four starts since returning from the injured list, but home runs continues to be an issue, and his splits versus lefties remain poor. For the season, his season split shows a 5.07 xFIP and 14.7% strikeout rate while allowing a 38.8% hard-hit rate and 38.8% fly-ball rate.
The only team with a worse bullpen xFIP over the last month than Baltimore? It's the Diamondbacks at 5.68. That means the right-handed bats should be able to get in on the fun, too.
San Franciso's pitcher-friendly ballpark puts this stack slightly behind the other top spots, but they should be plenty motivated to get this win and probably won't be as popular on a Coors slate.