Being named an All-Star Game starter remains one of the most prestigious honors bestowed upon pitchers into today’s MLB, right behind winning the Cy Young Trophy. I mean, look at these illustrious names that have started the All-Star Game in the past decade: Ben Sheets, Kenny Rogers, Brad Penny, Esteban Loaiza… well, maybe the list has a few hiccups. But that doesn’t mean that it’s an honor to be taken lightly. Because of the prestige involved, actually picking the starter is harder than it sounds.
That’s why Tony La Russa and Ron Washington are lucky this year: they have help. At numberFire, we’ve analyzed all of the potential ASG starters using our nERD (numberFire Efficiency Rating Derivative) system and picked the top 5 choices from both the AL and NL. nERD relies heavily on walks, strikeouts, and home runs, the type of plays that isolate the pictcher-batter duel independent of the rest of the defense. When we ran the numbers, we found that the Washington has an easy choice in the AL, but La Russa may have a few (more) sleepless nights leading up to July 10.
For realism’s sake, we’re only including pitchers actually playing on Tuesday. So sorry CC, you would have been #4, but you had to go and kill multiple fantasy teams. Not that I’m bitter at all.
American League
5. The Price has been right for the Rays so far this year; David leads the entire American League with 11 wins on the season en route to helping Tampa Bay stay alive in that NATO-protest-level crazy AL East. Price really is solid all-around, but he doesn’t have any one great statistic that sets him apart from the other pitchers in the top tier of the AL. Out of the top five pitchers up for consideration for AL ASG starter, Price is near the bottom in most major categories: 5th in strikeout percentage (23.2%), 4th in walk percentage (8.2%), 5th in home run allowed percentage (2.2%), and 3rd at opponents’ batting average on balls into play (.294). If there’s one saving grace for Price, it’s that he induces more ground balls (1.17 grounder/fly ball ratio) than any other starter in the AL.
3. his “special†T-shirt from the day he arrived in America already? I really hope not. This man is two countries’ national treasure. On the mound, Darvish has been just as exciting, but just not in a way that would be the most effective for the AL on the mound. Darvish misses the most bats by a landslide, with his 26.1% strikeout percentage leading the rest of the AL starters. Of course, he almost misses home plate the most by a landslide as well, with his 11.8% walk percentage the highest of any of the five players in the starter running for the AL by over 3 percentage points. Always entertaining, that Yu Darvish, but not necessarily the most efficient.
2. Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners – nERD: 2.72
It’s not too often that you see a guy sitting at 6-5 in the mix to be the starting pitcher for the All-Star Game, but that’s simply the Magic™ (with a Seal of Excellence from Nintendo) of the Seattle Mariners’ offense this season. He’s been making strikeouts like it’s his job, which is highly fortunate, because it actually is his job that made him $11.7 million last season. His 25.3% strikeout percentage is second among AL starters only behind Homeboy Yu, his walk percentage fourth behind Verlander, Sale and Matt Harrison, and his homerun given up percentage behind only Sale. He’s so good, he could almost be the starter. Almost. His percentages are good, and he would be the starter in the National League, but he’s just not to the level of…
1. Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers – nERD: 2.86
National League
5. Stephen Strasburg – Washington Nationals – nERD: 2.50
I feel like a Stephen Strasburg vs. Mike Trout battle in the All-Star Game would be that first battle between future archenemies, when you’re not sure which side is stronger, and they’re just kind of feeling each other out and gauging the others’ strength. They’re supremely talented opposites that are each other’s as the ultimate foil. Like Batman and the Joker. Or Chris Brown and Drake. Or Ash and Gary. Strasburg may get to Ultimate Foil Level 100 one day, but he’s not quite there yet. He’ll get a ton of strikeouts (his 32.2% strikeout percentage is the highest for either teams’ starters), but he’ll also walk a ton of batters (7.2% walk percentage is the highest among the top 5 NL starters on this list). The real killer statistic for him is his opponents’ batting average on balls allowed into play – his .313 BABIP is .011 higher than any other NL ASG starter. Strasburg and his cartoonish arm, which I from now on am calling Charizard because of his fireballing abilities, need a little bit more refining before joining the Final Four.
4. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers – nERD: 2.54
3. Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies – nERD: 2.59
This is when you know that you’re headed for an exciting Trade Deadline: one of the names floated about as a possible trade chip is in line to be the third starter for the National League in the All-Star Game just three weeks earlier. The Phillies have failed harder than a steak with Cheese Whiz this season, but Hamels has taken his sub and made it spectacular. Through the fun of statistics (I promise kids, that isn’t a joke), Hamels somehow managed to have exactly the same strikeout ratio as Matt Cain – 118 Ks in 473 batters faced – which ties him for fourth among NL starters in the ASG. He also has an above-average walk percentage at 6.1%, also fourth among NL ASG starters. The problem is, he lets up way too many home runs at 3.0% of at-bats, highest among any NL ASG starter. He also has a high opponent batting average against on balls in play at .280, third-highest among NL ASG starters.
2. Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants – nERD: 2.63
1. R.A. Dickey – New York Mets – nERD: 2.69
In March 2011, I was still in school and the host of a Northwestern student radio show. I know, big news. At the end of one particular appearance, I competed against Sammy, a diehard, hopeless New York Mets fan, in a Pick ‘Em-type game, where the producers would pick who had the best answers at the end and crown a victor. We were essentially tied going into the final question, the simple “Who will win the NL Cy Young?†I picked Roy Halladay, standard, boring, safe, whatever. Sammy picked R.A. Dickey. He was laughed out of the studio, and I received my only ever Pick ‘Em victory, because that idiot picked R.A. Freaking Dickey to win the NL Cy Young. R.A. Dickey! It became a running inside joke among my friends. Who would ever pick R.A. Dickey to win the Cy Young?
Through one half of the season, R.A. Dickey deserves to win the Cy Young.
You expect a knuckleballer to be able to miss bats, and Dickey’s done exactly that, with his 26.6% strikeout percentage ranking third among NL starters in the ASG behind Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg’s ungodly total. You also expect a knuckleballer to induce his fair share of ground balls because of the way the ball dips – Dickey’s 1.07 groundball-fly ball ratio is first among NL ASG starters. What you don’t expect, however, is pinpoint accuracy and almost a complete lack of walks from a knuckleball pitcher. That’s where Dickey’s been at his most effective, with his 5.6% walk percentage of batters faced ranking third among all starting pitchers in the All-Star Game, either National League or American League. Dickey just can’t miss the zone. And that’s why, above all else, R.A. Dickey should be chosen the National League starter for the 2012 All-Star Game in Kansas City.
Zach Warren is the Content Editor for numberFire. Send your angry, incoherent e-mails to @ZachWWarren.